New York Islanders: Look at First Round Matchup against Pittsburgh Penguins

It is time to take a look at the New York Islanders‘ First Round matchup against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The New York Islanders are back in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for a third straight season but have a significant problem called offensive uncertainty. After Captain Anders Lee went down, Head Coach Barry Trotz failed to see his other players pick up the slack with their leading goalscorer (at the time) on the shelf for the rest of the season.

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As the season winded down and points were at a premium, the Islanders started to see their defensive play unsharpen. The fatigue from lack of scoring was pressing on one of the league’s best defensive units in all of hockey, who started to make mental errors, in bad spots, against bad teams.

New York Islanders’ offense will need to wake up like it did last postseason if the team wants to have success in First Round

When looking back, the defense and the goaltending was the deciding factor for a third straight season in getting this franchise into the Playoffs. The defense finished second in the NHL in regards to goals allowed per game (2.23). Former Islander and fan-favorite Robin Lehner, alongside Marc-Andre Fleury, over in Vegas took home the Jennings Trophy by 0.1.

While the Jennings Trophy is awarded to the team with the best goaltending tandem, it speaks volumes to the defensive capabilities of an organization.

We all know the old saying “defense wins championships,” and for the Islanders, it will come with the defense being the engine if they win. But to escape the East, let alone their First Round matchup against the Pittsburgh Penguins, the offense will have to wake up and contribute at a much higher rate than we saw during the regular season. The Isles averaged only 2.71 goals per game this season, while the Penguins scored 3.45.

The Good News

What should help Islanders fans sleep at night ahead of their First Round matchup is that they have been in this situation before. Last season, before the COVID-19 hiatus allowed this team to get healthy, the Isles had only averaged 2.78 goals per game. When the Playoffs began, the offense was a catalyst, averaging 3.00 goals per game on their elongated run.

New York not only shut down the offensive-minded Florida Panthers in the Qualifying Round, but also the offense that had been asleep for most of the season had woken up at the perfect time (3.25 goals per game). The Islanders averaged 3.4 goals per game in their First Round meeting with the Washington Capitals, as the defense only allowed three Capitals to score in five games.

And in the last series the Islanders won, they scored three or more goals in each of the seven games (3.43 goals per game), as they took the “win or go home” game by a score of 4-0.

So offense, which was an issue, became a lethal weapon. But this team is a bit different, with Lee not in the lineup and Trade Deadline acquisitions not pulling their weight. However, this is nothing new either. After General Manager Lou Lamoriello went out and acquired Jean-Gabriel Pageau last season to help with the offense, he mustered two goals as the Islanders finished their season 0-3-4.

However, Pageau went on to score eight goals and registered three assists in the 20 postseason games. This season, eerily enough, Kyle Palmieri has two goals after being acquired to accomplish the same task. The Islanders ended this season 3-3-1.

Palmieri did look to be gaining more confidence as the season came to a close alongside J-G Pageau and Oliver Wahlstrom on the third line. The Long Island native has not played in the Playoffs in two seasons but has 15 points in 38 postseason appearances.

The Bad News

The Pittsburgh Penguins, on paper, have the upper hand in most of the offensive categories. However, the paper stats do not do justice to just how strong this Pittsburgh team is. Unlike the Islanders, the Pens not only beat up the non-Playoff teams in the East but also the top dogs as well. They went 6-2 against these Islanders and the Capitals, with a losing record of 3-4-0 against the Bruins.

More worrisome is that they outscored their postseason colleagues 74-64, as the offense has not been an issue. The main concern has been the Penguins defense and goaltending, but this team is entering the Playoffs having allowed 2.4 goals against over their last 10 games. They have scored 3.7.

The Penguins are a team that possesses the puck very well and plays a style that suffocates when on point. They owned a Corsi For % (CF%) of 50.29 and garnered 51.16% of the scoring chances in a game (SCF%). As good teams do, they took advantage of their opportunities as they came through 55.38% (SCGF%) of the time when given a scoring opportunity (6th best ).

While the Islanders had strong advanced statistics as well (48.56 CF%, 50.42% SCF%, 56.65 SCGF%), this Penguins team found a way to score goals in a much greater fashion. The Penguins were expected to score 96.36 goals (xGF). They ended the season with 126.

The Penguins also had 20+ goal scorers, all three players making up their top line. The line of Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby, and Bryan Rust netted a total of 69 goals (36% of the team’s total goals).
The Islanders got a combined 35 goals for their top line.

 The Prediction

This series will undoubtedly be a fun one to say the least. The biggest thing for the Islanders will be the defense holding up and the offense taking advantage of their opportunities. The Penguins window is starting to close and they will be entering the Stanley Cup Playoffs with a major chip on their shoulder after an early exit against the Montreal Canadiens last postseason.

On the other hand, the New Islanders have the better defense and goaltending, which will pay dividends in what will be a grueling run out of the First Round and en route to the Stanley Cup.

My prediction is that the Islanders advance in six games.

All statistics are even-strength  (5 on 5) and are brought to you by Natural Stat Trick.