Is Philipp Grubauer an early Vezina Trophy favorite?

It was a minor shock to see Philipp Grubauer leave the Stanley Cup favorite Colorado Avalanche for the NHL’s newest team the Seattle Kraken in free agency. Sure there was a little contract drama at first but that’s all sorted out. Seattle is trying to replicate with Grubauer what the Vegas Golden Knights did with Marc Andre Fleury in their 2017-2018 season.

Before the puck even drops on the 2021-2022 NHL season, or pre-season for that matter, Grubauer should be seen as a Vezina Trophy favorite for the goaltender who contributes the most to their team success. Grubauer was a finalist this past season, losing to Fleury.

Grubauer is coming off the best season as a starter of his career with a save percentage of .922 and a goals-against-average of an amazing 1.95. While that .922 save percentage is elite, it’s just a few tics under what would be considered an “elite” save percentage of .930. He also tied for the league lead in shutouts with seven in the shortened season, a career-high for him.

How much is expected of Grubauer in Seattle, and how much should expectations be tempered? Remember, the Kraken aren’t expected to be very good. No doubt Grubauer’s stats will suffer as a result of having a subpar team in front of him compared to the one he played behind with the Avalanche. Having Grubauer in net gives Seattle a chance to compete every night. When judging his performance, it will be a game of “what was really his fault?”

Philipp Grubauer left the cup favorite for the new guy in the NHL. Will he be awarded for his risk with a Vezina Trophy?

Then again, with the unimpressive roster Seattle has, putting up numbers that even are close to those during his Colorado tenue would be a Herculean task for the German-born netminder. Unlike the Jennings which is based only off quantifiable stats, the Vezina is more open for interpretation as “the goaltender who contributes the most to their team’s success”. Well if Seattle doesn’t have a lot of success, how much attention will Grubauer get in the Vezina race? Alternately, whatever little success Seattle has, how much can be attributed to Grubauer?

One interesting historical trend Grubauer has working against him is that he’s a goalie in his first year with a new team out of free agency. Since the 2005 NHL Lockout, no goalie signed to their team in free agency has won the Vezina. The one exception is Tim Thomas, who signed and played in the Boston Bruins minor league system and was developed by the team. The only goalie to win a Vezina in their first year with a new team since then was Sergei Bobrovsky. He won with the Columbus Blue Jackets during the 2013-2013 season following his trade from the Philadelphia Flyers the summer before.

The next question is about Grabuer’s injury history. Remember that injuries limited him to 36 starts in the 2019-2020 season. That injury lead to the emergence of Pavel Francouz and almost made Grubauer expendable. Even if he returned to full health last season, any extended injury history for a goaltender approaching age 30 is still worrisome. If he’s injured, the Kraken do have Chris Dreidger ready to go as well.

Speaking of his age, this is where Grubauer differs from other expansion team goalie superstar Marc-Andre Fleury. When Fleury was chosen by the Vegas Golden Knights, he gave the franchise instant credibility. Yet you felt he was in the tail end of his career and that his best days as a three-time Stanley Cup champion with the Pittsburgh Penguins are behind him. Remember, Fleury was demoted to back up during those cup runs to Matt Murray.

Meanwhile, Grubauer seems to be in the prime of his career. Only during the 2019-2020 season did he finally get a starting goaltender’s job, although he enters Seattle with a cup ring from his time as a backup with the Washington Capitals. He gives Seattle instant credibility, but more is and should be, expected from him as compared to Fleury.

It’s still way too early to pick a Vezina favorite, but Grubauer enters the season with an interesting case. After the Vegas Golden Knights took home three NHL awards in their inaugural season, we saw that voters aren’t afraid to reward expansion teams. Then again, they have to earn it first.