Who is to blame with the Edmonton Oilers? Goaltending or defense?

The Edmonton Oilers are the NHL’s version of “always a bridesmaid, never a bride”. They have the NHL’s top two players in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisatl. Still, that’s usually not enough. In the so far six years of the McDavid era, the team has only made the playoffs three times. One of those times was the 24 team playoff in the NHL bubble where the Chicago Blackhawks defeated them to make the “real” playoffs (round of 16) in 2019-2020.

Goaltending has been a frequent scapegoat for the underperforming team. Consider that Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen are their two options in net and it’s easy to see why. Edmonton’s defense overall has been less than spectacular, but who is more to blame here? It’s easy to pin the blame on one netminder, but Edmonton’s goalies might be doing a better job than people think.

Let’s look at some statistics from last season. The Oilers were eleventh in the NHL in goals allowed per game at 2.75. Remember last year was all in-division play until the semi-finals, and the only other team from the Canadian division with a better goals allowed per game were the Toronto Maple Leafs, with a slightly better 2.64 goals per game.

Another interesting stat shows that Edmonton was also eleventh place in total goals allowed, sitting with 154. Once again, the Toronto Maple Leafs were the best among Canadian teams. Right above Edmonton were the Winnipeg Jets, who allowed just two fewer goals with 152. Then again, Winnipeg has the well-advertised goaltending theatrics of Vezina contender Connor Helleybuyck.

Another underperforming season by the Edmonton Oilers is in the books. While their goaltending isn’t great it’s the defense who is more to blame.

Here is where we can start to blame the defense. At average shots against per game, Edmonton once again sits at eleventh place, as in eleventh worst in the NHL. The only Canadian team to allow more shots than the Oilers north of the border were the lowly Ottawa Senators.

Thanks to the power of sortable stats, I looked at those same states throughout the whole “McDavid” era of the 2015-2016 season and on. In those six years after, Edmonton ranks seventh-worst in total goals allowed, as well as seventh-worst in goals allowed per game. They are slightly better at overall shots per game where they rank eleventh worst.

To the Oilers’ credit, they did try to stabilize their defense this past offseason. They added a veteran presence in past his prime Duncan Keith while locking up Darnell Nurse for a long time at a big cost. In their defense, the free-agent defenseman market was pretty unspectacular after Dougie Hamilton. They did lose two pieces in Adam Larsson and Dmitri Kulikov. Kulikov might have been worth keeping, although he got himself a very handsome pay raise with the Minnesota wild that maybe the Edmonton Oilers didn’t want to match.

Can the Oilers use an upgrade in goal? Absolutely, but that’s not their only problem. Edmonton has an explosive offense that every NHL team would dream of having. Maybe if they could stabilize their defense, which would be enough to look over their other shortcomings. Who cares how many goals you give up as long as you score more than the other team?