Which team is the biggest threat in the Atlantic Division?
The NHL is now at its holiday break, and one of the more intriguing divisional races, with about 30 games in the books, is that in the Atlantic Division.
The defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning currently own the top spot in the Atlantic with a record of 20-6-4. Two points behind the Bolts are the Toronto Maple Leafs (20-8-2), and two points behind the Leafs, in third place, are the Florida Panthers (18-7-4). The Detroit Red Wings will enter Christmas in fourth place in the division and second place in the wild card race, while the Boston Bruins are the first team out, trailing the Wings by only three points.
It’s far too early to look at these standings and assume anything concrete, but it’s never too early to take what we’ve seen and project which teams are poised for success as the season progresses. Before the season began, I picked the Lightning to win the Atlantic Division in the regular season before being knocked out of the playoffs for the first time since 2019 by the Panthers.
Given the way those teams have played to this point, both of those outcomes are still very much on the table, but which team has the best opportunity to succeed this season? Here are the eight Atlantic Division teams ranked in order from least dangerous to most dangerous as the regular season approaches its second half with the postseason looming.
8. Montreal Canadiens
This team may have reached the Stanley Cup Final only a few months ago, but the Montreal Canadiens own the second worst record in the NHL as 2022 draws near. The steep drop off from last year’s magical run has been highlighted by key players being absent from the lineup for a variety of reasons.
I don’t think that many people believed that the Canadiens would have the ability to repeat last season’s performance, but at this point, it is abundantly clear that they will not even come close. At this point, the Habs feel like a lock to finish in last place in the Atlantic.
7. Ottawa Senators
The Ottawa Senators lie only one spot ahead of the Canadiens and therefore belong in the same conversation. Sixth place feels like the ceiling for a Senators team that has been reeling since its double overtime loss in the Game 7 of the 2017 Eastern Conference Final.
Goaltender Matt Murray has not worked out in Ottawa, Evgenii Dadonov moved on after only one season, and while a few young stars give Senators fans some reasons to be optimistic, the benefits of that optimism will not be realized until at least next year.
6. Buffalo Sabres
The Buffalo Sabres have as little chance to win the Atlantic as the two previously mentioned teams, but they at least looked at one point this year as though they may contend for a playoff spot. In typical Sabres fashion, that faded quickly into disappointment, and now Buffalo will simply attempt to not finish in last place.
Star forward Jack Eichel has officially been shipped out of town, meaning that any direction the Sabres might have had has been scrambled. The future is uncertain for this team, and like the Habs and Sens, fans will have to wait until at least next season before they see their team turn things around.
5. Detroit Red Wings
While the Red Wings currently sit in the fourth position, they’re the fifth biggest threat in this division. What Detroit has done in the early stages of the season is very encouraging for a franchise that has been in a rebuild for several seasons.
With 33 points in 31 games, that rebuild is obviously coming to an end, but the Wings are still a work in progress. Detroit’s .532 point percentage is only 20th in the NHL despite the club holding the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. The team’s goal differential is a -16, which also illustrates the fact that the Red Wings are close, but the more established teams in the Atlantic still have the upper hand.
The hockey future is bright in the Motor City with players like Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, and Moritz Seider in the lineup, but as far as the 2022 postseason is concerned, the ceiling for the Red Wings is simply getting in.
4. Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs started slow but have played very well lately, as they are 16-4-1 since November 1. That stretch has propelled Toronto into the second spot in the Atlantic. However, no amount of regular season success makes up for the lack thereof in the playoffs.
I can’t consider the Leafs to be a threat to emerge from this division as an Eastern Conference Final participant when I’ve never seen it win a single playoff series. What’s more devastating than simply not winning is the fashion in which they’ve been defeated, which has been well documented.
There’s no doubt that Toronto is a great regular season team. It won its division last season, both special teams units rank in the top ten this year, and Auston Matthews is a top NHL point and goal producer once again. However, to be considered a dangerous team, the Leafs have to prove that they can win in big moments. That has not been done yet, and until I see it happen, I won’t believe that it’s imminent.
3. Boston Bruins
The Boston Bruins have had an odd feeling all season. It seems as though this team has been a few games behind all year in terms of games played, and in the games that it has played, it has won a few more than it has lost. That’s an underwhelming way of saying that the Bruins have been good but not great.
As a result, the team will need to use its games in hand to make up some ground, which will be manageable against a club like Detroit. With that said, even if Boston wins all of those extra games, it will still be looking up the standings at a trio of teams. That doesn’t mean that the Bruins can’t eventually catch up, but it does feel like this team will have a tough time cracking the top three in the Atlantic in the regular season.
This team is a bit older than its division rivals and it has questions further down the lineup that were on full display in the 2021 Stanley Cup playoffs. Yet, I have the Bruins at three because of the playoff experience on this roster. What Toronto lacks in postseason success, Boston is largely responsible for, and while it seems like a it happened in a different lifetime, it was only 2019 that the Bruins won the Eastern Conference.
In addition, what could make this group a bit of a wild card is goaltender Tuukka Rask and his potential return to the lineup. If Rask can be the type of impact player that he has been in past seasons, it could give the Bruins a lift heading into the second half of the season.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning have ascended to the top of the Atlantic Division in the month of December by earning victories in eight out of nine games played. The Bolts have a one point advantage over the Carolina Hurricanes for the top spot, not only in the East, but in the league, and their .733 point percentage is the second best mark in the NHL.
On an individual level, captain Steven Stamkos has rediscovered the point producing ability that had been on full display prior to his injuries, and defenseman Victor Hedman is one of the top point-getting blue liners in the NHL this season. In goal, Andrei Vasilevskiy has posted the best save percentage and goals against average of his impressive career.
Clearly, things are going well for the Lightning, so why do they come in at number two? First, I would look to the players that left the franchise in the offseason. I said at the time, and I maintain now, that those losses will not be felt during the regular season, but they will be very noticeable in the playoffs. Pure talent can win most games in the regular season, but once the postseason arrives, you need impact players throughout the lineup, and that’s what Tampa Bay lost in players like Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman. The Bolts may not be impacted by those departures now, but at some point they will be.
In addition, this team has played a lot of playoff games over the last couple of seasons, which were condensed thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. Eventually, that will catch up with the Lightning and will be part of the reason that the team is unable to win a third straight Stanley Cup championship, as it’s incredibly difficult to win back-to-back titles, let alone three in a row. The Bolts are dangerous for sure, but sooner or later they will lose, and the team that could make it happen sits at number one on this list.
Florida Panthers
The Florida Panthers, the team that I picked to win the Stanley Cup, come in a number one on this list. They very nearly came in at number two for a couple of reasons, but ultimately, the Panthers hang on to the top spot.
First, let’s look at why Florida almost fell to number two. Recent Stanley Cup champions have shown us that head coaching and goaltending are two of the most important pieces on a championship team. Winning head coaches tend to either be the best that the game has to offer or a midseason replacement, while goaltenders are either elite players between the pipes or under the radar players that got hot at the right time.
When the season began, the Panthers were coached by a three-time Stanley Cup winner, and young goalie Spencer Knight was on the list of breakout candidates. As things stand now, Joel Quenneville is no longer employed by the Florida Panthers, and Knight has struggled to the tune of a 3.42 goals against average, an .892 save percentage, and a demotion to the American Hockey League.
What keeps the Panthers, in my view, as the top threat in the Atlantic Division is the fact that they now fall in the replacement coach category, and boast a two-time Vezina Trophy winner in the crease that is showing flashes of his former self this season. I don’t feel as strongly about this version of the Florida Panthers as I did about the version that started the season, but that doesn’t mean that it can’t still be the team that I like the most in the Atlantic.
In addition, the Lightning may be more dangerous on the surface, given the fact that they’ve claimed back-to-back titles, but a streak like that can’t go on forever. Like I said before, it seems unlikely that the Bolts will surge through the playoffs for a third straight season. If there’s a team in the Atlantic Division that is going to upend Tampa Bay, it will be the Florida Panthers.