Top 3 Sleeper Picks for NHL MVP in 2021-2022 Season

We are nearly halfway through February, and the focus of the NHL season has shifted to end-of-year awards for both teams and individuals, like the Stanley Cup and MVP.

When we talk about those individual awards, and the top candidates to win each one, we look to the top of the statistical leaderboards to find the players that have been the most impressive this season. That is especially true when it comes to the MVP award, but if we want to find all of the most valuable players, then we have to dig a little deeper.

In this article, I will discuss a few players that are by no means favorites to win MVP, but whose performances are critical to the success of their teams this season. Most valuable player and best player are often confused as the same thing, and sometimes they are, but when it comes to these picks, value is at an all-time high.

These three players are dark-horse MVP candidates.

To me, the value that drives a player’s chances of winning this award is determined by two things: the team’s overall performance (a player can’t be the most valuable if he can’t lead his club to the postseason) and the player’s role (which must be a primary one) in that performance.

Remove the following three players from their respective rosters, and each of their teams would be having significantly less productive seasons. One team would probably be on the outside of the playoff picture looking in without its dark-horse MVP candidate, while another could be challenging for worst-team-in-the-league status.

These may not be the names that hockey fans have grown accustomed to hearing in these conversations, but these players have guided their clubs through the first half of the NHL season and deserve credit for what they have been able to accomplish.

Without further ado, here are the three players that are my sleeper picks to sneak in and steal the NHL’s MVP award.

3. Timo Meier, San Jose Sharks

Timo Meier has seemingly come out of nowhere this season. So far, he has amassed 21 goals and 26 assists for 47 points during the current campaign. His assist and point totals both lead the San Jose Sharks. This would be the first season in his career in which he recorded a point per game or better.

His plus-minus is also worth noting, as his plus-14 rating is a career-high. He is one of seven San Jose skaters with a positive rating, and if you combine those of the other six, Meier matches them. The next closest mark is a plus-8 on a Sharks team that owns a -16 goal differential.

In addition to his career year in terms of plus-minus and points per contest, Meier has been scoring goals in key moments at a greater rate than in any other season. His seven power play goals not only make up the best total of his career, but they’re also more than twice the number of any of his teammates. His six game-winning goals and 12.5 shooting percentage are also career-bests.

As a result of his overall impressive contributions, the Sharks have continued to stay competitive in the Western Conference. It seems like no matter how many times San Jose is counted out as an old team or a team that isn’t talented enough, it just keeps coming back, and this season, that’s largely because of Meier.

The Sharks have a 22-20-4 record on the year, which puts them in sixth place in the Pacific Division. The team ranks in the bottom half of the NHL in both goals per game and goals against per game, which makes Meier’s plus-14 and 47 points (in 41 games) all the more impressive. Entering Saturday, San Jose is seven points out of a playoff spot.

To have a real shot at winning the MVP, Meier will need to get his Sharks into the postseason, and that’s why he’s at the bottom of this list. If he can’t get them there, then he’s out of contention for this award as far as I’m concerned. In the meantime, the fact that his team has a path to the playoffs at all lands him on this list.

1. Matt Duchene, Nashville Predators

It took him the better part of three years, but Matt Duchene is finally playing at the level that the Nashville Predators expected when they brought him to Tennessee in 2019.

Duchene’s numbers may not jump off the page in the same way that Meier’s do in San Jose, and his durability has not been as valuable as Jarry’s in Pittsburgh, but his return to form has revitalized his team in Nashville.

Part of the reason that he comes in at number one here, is the fact that I counted Nashville out at the beginning of the season. Even last year I was telling people that it was time for the Predators to sell players and start over.

Thanks to Matt Duchene, however, Nashville is 28-15-4, which is good for second place in the Central Division entering play on Saturday. The Predators are ninth in the NHL with a .638 point percentage.

Now, a lot of credit should also go to Predators captain Roman Josi, who has 46 points in 45 games this season and has been phenomenal on the power play. He could probably be on this list of sneaky MVP picks himself.

However, he has been so good for so many years, that while he is undoubtedly the driving force behind the Predators, he clearly needs some help getting his team to its ultimate goal. That help has been missing in the last several seasons, but it has come in the form of Matt Duchene this year.

In his first two seasons with the Preds (100 games), Duchene combined for 19 goals, 55 points, a minus-16 rating, and 14 power play points. This season alone, in 43 games, he has 22 goals, 42 points, a plus-2 rating, and 15 power play points.

His complete turnaround has sparked this team since the opening games of the season, and while Nashville has other key contributors playing better hockey this season too, his 180-degree change can’t go unnoticed.

These three players may be long shots to take home the MVP award, but without them, their teams would not be nearly as successful as they have been this season, and that is the mark of a true MVP.