The New York Rangers are facing an uphill battle in their Eastern Conference First Round series against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
With three games in the books, New York finds itself on the road and down 2-1. As the series advances to its later stages, experience begins to become more impactful, and if the deficit grows for the Rangers, their ability to play loose will dwindle.
Taking all of that into consideration, Game 4 seems like a game that New York needs to win. I hesitate to call it a must-win game, because Game 5 will be back at Madison Square Garden, but it’s still important.
With that said, I don’t think the Rangers will win this series even if they are able to capture Game 4 and knot the series up at two games each.
The Rangers will not beat the Penguins in this series.
When the postseason began, I picked the Rangers to eliminate the Pens in five games. Pittsburgh was not playing well and had goaltending question marks, while New York, underestimated and ahead of schedule, could play with little pressure.
At this point, though, the confidence seems to be growing for the Penguins, I now think that this series will go to Pittsburgh in six games, and there are three major reasons for that thinking.
Triple Overtime Loss
While the Rangers did succeed in winning Game 2 after their marathon loss, a defeat in triple overtime is a tough way to start a series.
Historically, teams that lose in the third overtime or later of a series-opening game do not fare well, and it feels to me as though the Rangers could suffer a similar fate.
The fact that the game was nearly twice as long as a standard contest makes it physically trying for both teams involved. For New York, though, it is just as mentally exhausting, knowing that after playing for five and a half periods, you have nothing to show for your effort.
I think that any team would have a difficult time battling back after that type of loss, but I believe that it will be especially hard for a young, inexperienced team. The Rangers have next to no Stanley Cup championship experience, which makes this mountain even more difficult to climb.
Missed Opportunity to Swing Momentum
After rebounding quickly to win Game 2, the Rangers traveled to Pittsburgh where Game 3 became a 4-1 deficit by the time the first period had concluded.
When New York came out in period number two as an entirely different team, it had a golden opportunity. The Rangers dominated the middle frame and rallied to tie the game at four.
On the road and in a tied series, that could have been a moment where the Rangers took control and didn’t look back. They were unable to do that.
Despite the spirited effort, New York could not find a way to earn an advantage on the scoreboard, and they ended up losing 7-4. Not only did they fail to win the game, but they also couldn’t get a lead in the game, and they ultimately lost by the same three-goal margin that they had erased.
Momentum is critically important in the playoffs, and this was an opportunity for the Rangers to seize it and change the series. Instead, they trail two games to one and now the momentum lies with the Penguins.
No Barclay Goodrow
The Rangers are driven by star power. From Vezina Trophy favorite Igor Shesterkin to Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox and all of the elite forwards at the top of the lineup, New York can compete with the best teams in the NHL.
As good as those players can and will be, it takes something extra in the playoffs, and that was supposed to come from forward Barclay Goodrow. The 29-year-old is a two-time Stanley Cup champion that brings experience and depth to the Rangers.
Unfortunately, he is now out for the series after playing only one game. The first-year Ranger tallied 33 points in the regular season and has 14 points in 66 career postseason tilts.
He is by no means the most important player on the Rangers’ roster, but he was brought to New York to help the team at this specific stage of the season. This group was not overly deep prior to the trade deadline, which makes losing someone like Goodrow unsettling in more ways than one.
The Rangers will look to even their series with the Penguins on Monday in Pittsburgh before returning to New York later in the week.