Did Sweeping The Florida Panthers Hurt The Tampa Bay Lightning?

Remember the first night of the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs? Remember when the Tampa Bay Lightning jumped out to a 3-0 lead in game one against the Columbus Blue Jackets? Remember how we all though Columbus didn’t stand a chance? Remember four games later when the Blue Jackets emerged victorious and we all realized we were wrong?

Yes, that was the sweep heard around the hockey world. Head coach John Cooper blames the Lightning’s loss on the fact they didn’t play “meaningful hockey” in a while. Two Stanley cups later, his team finds themselves tied 2-2 against the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final after going down 2-0 in the series.

The Rangers advanced after back-to-back game seven victories in the past two rounds. The Lightning advanced after sweeping the President’s Trophy winning Florida Panthers. Did the Lightning’s long layoff affect their performances?

Since the 2019 playoffs when Columbus surprised everybody, and up until these playoffs, there have been seven series of a four-game sweep. Those seven teams have a record of 1-6 in terms of winning their next playoff round (since there was no sweep in the Stanley Cup final, every team that swept had to win another playoff series after).

After a four-game sweep against the Florida panthers, the Tampa Bay Lightning had a long layoff in between rounds. Was it too long?

The one team that won their next series after sweeping the last is last year’s Montreal Canadiens. After seeing their performance this season, that Canadiens team reaching the finals seems like one of the NHL’s all-time greatest playoff flukes. Interestingly, remember Tampa Bay was one Josh Anderson goal away from sweeping Montreal in the cup final. It would have been the first Stanley Cup final sweep in the salary cap era.

Those seven playoff sweeps over the past few seasons don’t include the qualifying round best of three series in the 2020 NHL bubble. If we include that, the record becomes 1-7, as we add only one sweep. The Carolina Hurricanes won in three games over the New York Rangers that year. If we add the first two rounds of this year’s playoffs, that record becomes 2-8, if we include the Colorado Avalanche’s back-to-back victories over the Nashville Predators (a four-game sweep) and then the St. Louis Blues. The Lightning’s playoff run is ongoing, so we won’t include the yet.

How about when it comes to winning hockey’s ultimate prize? Both the 2019 Boston Bruins and 2021 Montreal Canadiens advanced to the Stanley Cup final in the same playoffs they swept a team (only the Bruins did it the round right before the cup final). Both teams would also lose in the final.

Let’s get back to the present. Those stats don’t necessarily inspire confidence for this Lightning team. They’ve already seen their streak of not losing back-to-back playoff games broken when the Rangers took both games in New York. Then again, this Lightning team is skilled, experienced, and can be built for the long haul. The Rangers went farther than anyone thought already, so stamina might not be on their side.

As much as fans would love to get the brooms out and see a sweep, maybe it’s better for their own team if the other team wins a game or two. Anything can happen in the playoffs. Maybe that long layoff in between series hurts. Maybe it’s just a matchup of better teams. Maybe you underestimate your opponent. Just ask the Tampa Bay Lightning, because that’s what happened to them in 2019. They hope that history doesn’t repeat itself.