The Colorado Avalanche are fresh off their Stanley Cup run, but not everyone from that magical spring is returning to Denver. Among the new kids on the block is Alexandar Georgiev, acquired via a trade from the New York Rangers, who will be the replacement increase for Darcy Kuemper.
Kuemper left Colorado with his Cup ring via free agency to sign with the Washington Capitals.
Following Phillip Grubauer signing with the expansion Seattle Kraken the offseason before, this will be the third year in a row Colorado begins the season with a new presumed number one goaltender. Interestingly, all three of those players were acquired via trade with other teams.
The meteoric rise of Igor Shesterkin made Georgiev expendable, although the longer the Rangers held onto him, the more his trade value began to drop.
Still, the timing of New York having an extra goalie available to go to a good home and Colorado needing a new netminder fit perfectly to send Georgiev to the defending Cup champions. Will he be good enough for the Avalanche?
Georgiev appears to be the number one goalie. Can he rise to the occasion?
Before we can ask if Georgiev can fill Kuemper’s skates, let’s look at Kuemper’s short stay in the Mile High City.
Kuemper was the king of inconsistency in the regular season but finished with a strong second half. He was just good enough in the playoffs, with a .902 save percentage and a 2.57 goals against average, but for now, we’ll just focus on the regular season.
To compare Georgiev to Kuemper, let’s look at the average amount of shots they faced. With the exception of a few minor pieces such as Jack Johnson and Ryan Murray, Colorado’s defense is staying intact from their Cup run.
Would you think the Avalanche would allow fewer shots against per game than the Rangers? Wrong. The Rangers allowed 30.80 shots against per game compared to the Avalanche’s 32 shots against per game.
Say the Avalanche continue to allow 32 shots against per game. In all of Georgiev’s starts last season where he faced more than 32 shots, he was 3-5, but that’s a rather small sample size of 8 games.
In games where he faced 31 shots or fewer (we rounded up that 30.80 average shots against per game, which was the Rangers’ average) Georgiev had a record of 11-6.
The Rangers also allow a lot more odd-man rushes than the Avalanche do. It’s no secret the Rangers’ success is built on their goalies, or more accurately, their goalies’ ability to bail them out when the defense fails.
Even if Georgiev is facing a few more shots per game, they’ll likely be fewer high-danger chances.
That’s a reason for optimism. If we want to talk about advanced stats, Georgiev had a career-worst year in quality start percentage at .464 and “really bad starts,” with 9, along with a -7.60 goals saved against average.
In a larger sample size, Kuemper had a quality start percentage of 0.561, which is just a bit higher than the league average of .530. Kuemper also had fewer “really bad starts” with 7, but the most telling stat is his 25.10 goals saved against average.
Can Georgiev expect to see those stats go up behind a better Avalanche defense than the one he’s used to in New York?
Even though another injury delayed his long-awaited NHL return, by all means, Pavel Francouz seems healthy to begin the season. After returning last year, he finished with strong play and had an impressive showing in the playoffs after Darcy Kuemper went down with an injury.
If all goes as well for Francouz, he could form a 1a and 1b tandem with Georgiev. It might be too early to tell, but Georgiev’s record in games where he faces just over 30 shots doesn’t inspire confidence.
The Avalanche are so skilled at every position on the ice that goaltending is their weakest link. Realistically, the Avalanche would succeed with league-average goaltending.
Then again, Georgiev wasn’t brought in to be “league average”, but the Avalanche would gladly settle for “slightly above league average”, especially if Francouz stays healthy.