What to think of Kyle Dubas’ murky future with the Maple Leafs

On Wednesday, Kyle Dubas discussed his expiring contract at the Toronto Maple Leafs’ media day, where he acknowledged his status as a pending free agent general manager.

Without a contract going into the season, Dubas has no issue going through the year with the uncertainty. He said the following on Wednesday:

“My view of it is that if we have the year that we’re capable of and the team plays the way that it’s capable of, my situation will get taken care of without issue. I don’t worry about it.”

While Dubas may be fine with hinging everything on this season, one question comes to mind: is this justified? Should Dubas’ job hang in the balance this season?

The positives of Kyle Dubas’ tenure

Dubas represents an interesting challenge to the Toronto Maple Leafs. He played a large part in the rebuild and in acquiring a majority of their core, but he did not become the general manager until the team’s core was already formed.

However, he did retain forwards Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner while acquiring center John Tavares and defenseman Jake Muzzin. He kept the team together and added more talent to it, and they have since had a lot of regular season success.

Dubas’ tenure surrounded a team at the cap ceiling ready to make a deep playoff push, so most of his moves outside of contract extensions seem small. However, he made plenty of shrewd moves to build the team’s depth, such as the acquisitions of goalie Jack Campbell and defensemen Ilya Lyubushkin and Mark Giordano, for example.

Not every move comes with success, but Dubas has two important qualities; he quickly recognizes flops and he always finds ways to make his moves fit underneath the cap.

Suffice to say, Dubas does not appear obviously incompetent. He made many moves that benefitted the team and put them in a better position. As with most general managers, he makes mistakes. However, he generally recognized his mistakes early and moved the players. There are worse general managers than Dubas.

Dubas built a team that dominates in the regular season and shows that it can at least get three wins in the playoffs. The thing that may kill his tenure is that the team has not won a series in the playoffs.

The negatives of Kyle Dubas’ tenure

Dubas’ perception goes with the team; if the team succeeds, he becomes celebrated. However, his team has not won in the playoffs. How much of that can be attributed to Dubas?

For starters, his spending and money allocation come to mind. Signing Tavares certainly raised the team’s ceiling, but he essentially paid $11 million to a second-line center. If this team did not have that $11 million tied up in Tavares, would the team have more quality depth?

The Tavares problem highlights the general problem with Dubas’ tenure – he tied so much of the team’s cap in their forwards. Matthews makes more than $11 million, Marner makes just under $11 million annually, and William Nylander makes around $7 million. These players deserved these contracts, but the lack of team success remains frustrating when the team prioritized retaining these talented scorers over having a complete team.

Over the past couple of years, the negative repercussions of this prioritization showed, as the Leafs experienced inconsistencies with their defensemen and goaltending.

Speaking of the goaltending, Kyle Dubas lost both starting goalies in the past two years in Freddie Andersen and Jack Campbell to free agency and decided to roll the dice on Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov for this season. With his job on the line and the Leafs’ questionable defense fronting two inconsistent goalies, this gamble may not work.

Dubas also lost some trades that negatively impacted the team, such as trading Nazem Kadri for Alexander Kerfoot and Tyson Barrie. Hindsight does not help Dubas in this particular trade, but Kadri becoming a fantastic second-line center in Colorado does not help his case.

Dubas generally makes smart moves to keep the team competitive while working with his team’s limited cap space, but he put himself in this position. As long as his team fails to get past the first round in the playoffs, his inability to create a complete team to surround his expensive wingers will lead to him losing his job.