MacKinnon Extension Means it’s All Downhill From Here for Avalanche

The best years for the Colorado Avalanche are already in the past.

That is the unfortunate reality after the team signed star forward Nathan MacKinnon to an eight-year contract extension. MacKinnon’s new deal will pay him $12.6 million per year, which is the highest annual average value (AAV) of any NHL player.

Don’t get me wrong, the Avalanche superstar earned every bit of his new contract, and Colorado was right to lock him up. However, $12.6 million for one player would be problematic for any team, and the Avs are in an especially bad situation to try to make that work.

There’s no question that this will continue to be a great team. It will win clinch playoff berths, win division titles, and pose a threat to postseason opponents for years to come. With that said, this deal ensures that we’ve already seen the best version of the Avalanche.

It’s all downhill from here for the Avalanche.

First of all, no team has ever managed to win the Stanley Cup with a player making more than $10 million on the roster. As laid out by Forbes, the Tampa Bay Lightning, with two players making $9.5 million, have come the closest to breaking that curse.

Second, Colorado is in no position to deal with MacKinnon’s new massive salary. According to CapFriendly, the Avs currently have only $1.9 million in cap space, and that is before their star’s salary doubles next season.

For a team with little to no cap flexibility and nine players on expiring contracts, this deal is going to cause problems. I mean, they already couldn’t afford to keep Darcy Kuemper and are now dealing with uncertainty in goal as a result of cap constraints.

I love Nathan MacKinnon and think he’s one of the best players in the NHL. I also love the Avalanche and understand that “downhill” for them is not nearly as severe as it would be for almost every other franchise.

However, MacKinnon could be the best player in the league for the next nine seasons, and the Avs will still be hard-pressed to fill out their roster in a way that allows them to win the Stanley Cup. That’s been the reality of the NHL’s salary cap for as long as it’s been around.

Last year’s Avalanche team was an absolute juggernaut, and while MacKinnon is elite and this team will continue to be dangerous, we’re not going to see another Avs squad that compares to the 2022 champions.