Breaking down the odds of the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery
By Jim Lynch
The NHL Draft Lottery is almost here. While the Stanley Cup playoffs has 16 teams hoping for the Stanley Cup, the 16 teams hoping for a lottery win are hoping for something just as important.
All 16 of the teams that missed the Stanley Cup playoffs have a chance at winning the 2023 NHL Draft lottery. Now, there were some rule changes from a few years back that are going to impact things.
One of those rule changes is the fact that you can only move up 10 spots in the draft. So, while a team like the Calgary Flames might have a .5 percent chance at winning the lottery, they are only going to be able to move up from 16 to 6 in the draft order. This means that only the top 11 teams can win the first overall pick.
Breaking down the odds of the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery
The odds for the draft lottery are determined from the fewest points to most points from the 2022-23 NHL regular season. So here are the odds for all the NHL teams.
Anaheim Ducks – 18.5%
Columbus Blue Jackets – 13.5%
Chicago Blackhawks – 11.5%
San Jose Sharks – 9.5%
Montreal Canadiens – 8.5%
Arizona Coyotes – 7.5%
Philadelphia Flyers – 6.5%
Washington Capitals – 6.0%
Detroit Red Wings – 5.0%
St. Louis Blues – 3.5%
Vancouver Canucks – 3.0%
Ottawa Senators – 2.5%
Buffalo Sabres – 2.0%
Pittsburgh Penguins – 1.5%
Nashville Predators – 0.5%
Calgary Flames – 0.5%
Once the top two teams are selected through the draft lottery, the rest of the draft order will be set based on the regular season standings from least points to most among the bottom 16 teams.
The Anaheim Ducks have the best odds at landing the top draft pick, and they worst place they can draft is third if two other teams win the lottery. It is worth noting that the odds of winning the lottery are not that great for any of the teams.
Even if your favorite team finishes in last place, they still only have an 18.5 percent chance at drafting the first overall pick. That might be the highest percentage available, but 18.5 percent is no passing grade.
The Ottawa Senators pick does come with a few strings attached. They have a 2.5 percent chance on winning the lottery, but if they don’t their pick will belong to the Arizona Coyotes as apart of the Jakob Chychrun trade.
The pick was top five protected as apart of the trade so if the Senators do end up winning the lottery their first round pick for next season will then be transferred to the Arizona Coyotes. It is an interesting situation for both sides, the Senators might want to win the lottery this year and hope they are better next year than adding a better prospect. Wheres the Coyotes will want the Senators to lose the lottery, one because they want to win it themselves and two because then they get another top 15 first round pick.
The NHL Draft is scheduled for June 28 and 29 in Nashville.