Alright, let’s address the elephant in the room: the issue of "why?" Josh Doan has had a very great season, an incredible step in his development since he was traded from the Utah Mammoth to the Buffalo Sabres last summer. But are the Buffalo Sabres being overhyped in this “investment” when it is more of a gamble? Time to polish that magnifying glass and dig in.
Food for thought:
Currently, Josh Doan has had a rocky start to his budding NHL career, as he has a 3-year total of 27 goals and 36 assists for 63 points in 113 games played. This year, he has had a career high of 15 goals and 20 assists for 35 goals in 51 games. During his two years in Utah/Arizona, he posted a total of 12 goals and 16 assists for 28 points in 62 games.
Let’s run a fun thought experiment. Take a look at another contract that was signed very similarly, except it's actually cheaper in AAV, and with similar production in Pierre Engvall, a contract that has been ridiculed since its inception.
Engvall, who has had 47 goals and 45 assists for 92 points in his first 4 seasons in the NHL (224 games played), has statistically played at a 0.39 point per game pace, while Doan has played at a 0.57 point per game pace. Doan hasn't exactly earned optimism but instead projection, which can be summarized as him being paid for what he could do rather than what he has already produced. Currently, both levels of production are akin, with Doan having the upper hand. It should also be noted that Doan plays on a line with Tage Thompson, which would only demonstrate that his level of production could be linked to being dependent on a star like Thompson, and Engvall played on a line with JG Pageau.
Historically speaking, being paid for projection is exactly where long-term NHL contracts become liabilities because it becomes a gamble rather than an investment. Long-term contracts like Doan's, all the way from Engvall to former first overall pick Alexis Lafranière, become clear warnings should a team choose to invest in a player with mediocre (and even lackluster) production to only be convinced by one year of offensive proficiency to overcommit. As a result, if Doan's lone strong season (which is currently ongoing) proves to be an outlier rather than a baseline, Buffalo's long-term investment could quickly resemble another contract built on hope rather than proof.
The Why
What this signing illustrates is that Buffalo is likely still paranoid of losing their developing players as they continue their rebuild. Sure, the Sabres are in a playoff spot, but they aren’t locked into one yet and could be spit out of that position should they slip in the standings, so let’s call a spade a spade: the rebuild isn’t complete.
A trend that continues to persist is developing teams, especially in smaller markets, needing to sign their younger players to expensive deals in order to retain the small spark they have kindled. But like every small spark, it can be extinguished before it becomes a roaring fire. So the question remains of why it was absolutely necessary to sign Doan to a lucrative deal that clearly only benefits the player and his agent rather than the future of the Sabres overall.
Of course, Doan can actually explode in production and prove that he is worth his money. However, for the time being, this extension only demonstrates that Buffalo could be on a fast track to a cap predicament rather than contention.