Could the Windsor Spitfires be favored to emerge from the OHL's Western Conference playoffs?
The team is coming off of their fourth 90+-point-and-division-title season in five tries; two of the past three campaigns that saw them achieve both feats also included at least one playoff series win. Despite losing the Western Conference lead to the Kitchener Rangers, Windsor was right there with them for much of the season, even earning points in two of their four head-to-head encounters.
Their first round opposition is a Guelph Storm team that is hosting next year's edition of the Memorial Cup, but their record doesn't exactly match one akin to a Memorial Cup contender. Guelph is returning to the OHL playoffs after a one-year absence and they haven't won a playoff series since winning the J. Ross Robertson Cup in 2019.
The Windsor Spitfires are the far better team statistically, but what to make of the season series?
If we're going on statistics alone, Windsor is the far better team.
In terms of goal-scoring, Windsor finished third with a total of 264 goals, while Guelph was 13th in the league with 225. Windsor also gave up the second-fewest goals at 173; at the same time, Guelph gave up the sixth-most goals with 263.
With regard to the special teams play, Windsor's power play is second-best at a rate of 28.4% and their penalty kill is the best in the OHL at 82.8%. Meanwhile, Guelph has the least efficient power play at 16% but their penalty kill is seventh-best at 79.5%.
The gap between the two teams can also be seen in terms of goaltending; Windsor goaltender Joey Costanzo has the OHL's second-best goals against average (2.16), the seventh-best save percentage (.908), in addition to four shutouts. At the same time, Guelph goaltender Zachary Jovanovski, who started 52 games this season, recorded a goals against average of 3.39, a save percentage of .890, and just one shutout.
When considered altogether, the above statistics suggest that Windsor should handle the Storm in five games or less.
The one thing that could bring some semblance of doubt into predicting a short series? The head-to-head record between the two teams.
The four matchups contested between the two teams were split evenly between the two teams; both Guelph and Windsor won two matches apiece, but one of Windsor's victories came in overtime. It's also worth noting that Guelph won both games on their home ice, while Windsor's two wins came at their own arena.
From that season series, it's possible to see that Guelph is capable of breaking down Windsor's defence and getting shots on goal. However, when Windsor scores, another goal tends to follow within two minutes of game play.
Another problem with analyzing the season series? All of those matchups occurred in the first two months of the season, when the Storm was off to a 12-11-2-0 start to the season. In addition, Jett Luchanko was part of the Storm team that beat Windsor 8-5 in their second encounter, but he was traded to the Brantford Bulldogs between the final two head-to-head encounters - a 5-1 Windsor victory and a 5-4 Guelph win.
Final prediction: Spitfires in seven
Given the conflicting nature of the head-to-head matchups and the statistical picture, it's relatively tough to get a proper grip on this series.
On one hand, it could end with the Spitfires flexing their muscle and ending the Storm's season in four or five games. On the other hand, Guelph could find a way to replicate their early-season success against the Spitfires, push this series to seven games, and possibly earn an upset against one of the OHL's top teams.
Their 17-14-1-2 (wins, losses, overtime losses, shootout losses) home record isn't the greatest indicator of success in this series, but I think the Storm will find a way to win their home games and make Windsor play all seven games to secure this series.