While the quarterfinal round of the 2026 World Juniors is set to take place on Friday, it's worth providing an early simulation of the entire knockout round. It'll also be a good opportunity for me to circle back after the gold-medal game on January 5th to either laugh at myself or to tell myself "hey, you actually nailed your predictions."
With the matchups for the quarterfinals confirmed (Latvia vs Sweden, Switzerland vs Czechia, Finland vs United States, Canada vs Slovakia), I'll be skipping that round entirely and picking up at the semifinal round.
To assist in my projections, below is the ranking of the knockout round teams as determined by the IIHF.
1. Sweden (1st in Group A) |
2. Canada (1st in Group B) |
3. United States (2nd in Group A) |
4. Czechia (2nd in Group B) |
5. Finland (3rd in Group B) |
6. Switzerland (3rd in Group A) |
7. Latvia (4th in Group B) |
8. Slovakia (4th in Group A) |
As per these rankings, here are my projected semifinal matchups and results for all of the remaining knockout rounds at the World Juniors.
Semifinal Round
Sweden vs. Finland
Unstoppable force vs immovable object? I guess this matchup kind of represents this idea. While Finland will have the advantage in terms of scoring and discipline, Sweden will look to win this game on puck possession and making the most of their chances.
The real concern for Finland is their ability to remain composed against tougher opposition. We know they're more than capable of taking the initiative against teams like Latvia and Denmark, but against the likes of Czechia and Canada? Safe to say they made too many simple mistakes and committed too many costly penalties. We also saw the Finns completely collapse in the final forty minutes against Canada after keeping pace with the Canadians for the entire first period.
If Finland gets the lead against a team like Sweden, that obstacle could become completely moot. But if Sweden were to gain the early advantage, then Finland's gold medal hopes could be dashed.
Canada vs. Czechia
Why have I seen this matchup before? Oh, now I remember. While Canada beat Czechia 7-5 to open their group stage campaign, simply seeing this matchup should still strike fear into the hearts of Canadian hockey fans.
Of the last three knockout round matchups with Czechia, Canada has won just one of them. However, all three matchups were decided by one goal; the two losses to Czechia made up part of the past criticism of Hockey Canada and their past inability to select a strong, attacking-focused roster.
If this Canadian entry is going to truly establish themselves as different from the previous two rosters, they will win this game and advance to the gold medal round. Canada is more than capable than doing so, and they've proven they can win in this tournament.
The real question is can they do it when it matters most?
Bronze medal game: Finland vs. Czechia
This bronze medal game would be a rematch of the group stage game that saw Czechia completely dominate the game until a third period surge from the Finns put Czechia on their heels, eventually conceding the game-tying goal that would give Finland an important point in the Group B standings.
Here, Czechia will look to once again rely on scoring first and then proceeding to agitate the Finns like it's no one's business. But if Finland produces scoring chances to a similar degree to that of the third period of their group stage encounter, then it's entirely possible that Finland can put home a couple more goals than the one they were able to muster in that game.
Gold medal game: Sweden vs. Canada
This would more than likely be a high-scoring gold medal game. Sweden and Canada topped their respective groups not just in the standings, but also in terms of goal scoring (Canada led Group B with twenty-five goals, while Sweden held the advantage in Group A with twenty-one goals).
Defensively, however, it's Sweden that holds the edge. While Canada gave up just eleven goals over the course of the group stage, with nine of them coming against Czechia and Finland, Sweden gave up just eight goals, which was tied for Switzerland for the fewest goals conceded by a team.
The pre-tournament encounters between Canada and Sweden can also be used to project this matchup. The first was a 2-1 win for the Canadians, however the second saw the Swedes reverse a 2-1 deficit to win 4-2. Canada would earn the edge in the shot count in both games, however Sweden did a slightly better job in the special teams department.
This game could go either way, but right now, I am going to back the Swedes in considering their ability to overwhelm their opposition and possess the puck for significant periods of time.