The last time the United States and Canada met in a men's best-on-best matchup with a major trophy on the line was almost fifteen years ago in Vancouver, where Olympic gold was at stake. In that tournament, the U.S. prevailed in a preliminary matchup 5-3 but then lost the aforementioned rematch for gold a week later in what many consider to be the greatest hockey game ever played.
In their most recent tilt at the 4 Nations Face-Off on Saturday, the U.S. were victorious in a 3-1 preliminary win over Canada in Montreal, a game which will likely be recalled for generations because of the three fist-fights to begin the game. However, their upcoming rematch on Thursday is once again for all the marbles and while not for Olympic gold, the stakes are the highest they've been between the two since 2010.
Take for a moment the Americans' recent success at the IIHF's World Junior Championship, where they've won back-to-back golds and three of the last five events. Canada, on the other hand, had their own back-to-back in 2022-2023 but haven't medaled since. There's a light case to be made that the U.S. could have a brighter future in the next 5 to 10 years, and I think the Canadians know it.
But, at the same time, Canada has long dominated best-on-best competition at the Olympics and in National Hockey League-sanctioned tournaments, winning gold in 2002, 2010, and 2014 as well as the World Cup of Hockey in 2016. For them to lose in this event would be a minor blow to that legacy and could place doubt in some fans' minds ahead of the Olympics next winter, where NHL players will finally return to play.
Therefore, conventional wisdom would say that the higher pressure is on Canada to win Thursday, amidst their success that this is their tournament to lose. But given the way expectations are rising for the U.S. on hockey's global stage, and the long run of losses to Canada on games where it counts most, the pressure has entirely shifted to the American players.
Saturday's rock 'em sock 'em slugfest was played in Montreal - a mere home game for Canada
With the backdrop of rare political tension and nine years of built-up anticipation for best-on-best hockey. In that game, Canada was forced to match the U.S. physicality and largely did not. The U.S. had an incredible defensive effort and Canada was missing their best defenseman in Cale Makar.
Since then, Canada followed up the loss to the U.S. with a dominant win over Finland and will likely get defenseman Makar back for Thursday's game. Meanwhile, the Americans fell to Sweden on Monday night and undoubtedly lost some of their momentum, even with a berth in the championship already secured.
More significantly, the U.S. is facing injury woes of their own. Matthew Tkachuck and his brother Brady Tkachuck are nursing what appears to be minor injuries sustained on Saturday and Monday respectively. The former did not suit up on Monday and the same can be said for captain Auston Matthews, who has an apparent upper-body injury. Center Vincent Trocheck also left Monday's game with an apparent injury and defenseman Charlie McAvoy was admitted to the hospital prior to the same contest.
As of Tuesday afternoon, McAvoy has been ruled out for the Final
The Canadians have done well at battling their injury issues since missing Alex Pietrangelo for the tournament and having to call on Thomas Harley to replace Shea Theodore and later Makar. Similarly, they appear to have regained their momentum after the win over Finland and will now be playing on American soil in Boston for the grand prize. Motivation will not be an issue for the red and white.
Finally, because of Saturday's rampant American victory over Canada, the steadfast audience for the tournament, and the fact that the championship will be a home game for the United States, the domestic expectations for the U.S. alone will be enormous.