How different would the NHL look if the 2004-05 lockout never happened?

With sweeping changes to on-ice rules and financial operations, the NHL would be an entirely different league today if the 2004-05 season hadn't been cancelled.
Pittsburgh Penguins v Washington Capitals
Pittsburgh Penguins v Washington Capitals | G Fiume/GettyImages

It was a dark year in NHL history: the 2004-05 lockout. An entire season was lost to labor disputes as athletes flocked overseas to continue playing at a professional level, waiting for the day NHL hockey would return.

The lockout had major implications for the way the league functioned. It introduced a salary cap for the first time, changed the financial landscape of team operations, and even resulted in some on-ice rule changes that are still in effect today.

But there's an alternate reality where the lockout never took place, and it absolutely changes the course of NHL history. The shootout is never introduced, and neither is the "loser point"; goalie pads are never made smaller, prolonging the Dead Puck Era; and teams file for bankruptcy at an alarming rate.

The salary cap wouldn't exist (yet) and more teams would be relocated

The biggest accomplishment of the 2004-05 lockout was the establishment of a salary cap. The NHL was the last professional sports league in North America to implement that concept, and the absence of a salary cap was wreaking financial havoc on the league.

Due to the lack of a salary cap, teams were spending up to 76 percent of their annual revenue strictly on player salaries. This resulted in losses topping $273 million annually according to NHL sources, though other estimations from Forbes placed the losses closer to $100 million per year.

Either way, teams were overpaying their star players and the finances were suffering because of it. Look at Alexei Yashin, who signed a massive 10-year, $87.5 million contract with the New York Islanders in 2001 -- some outlets pinpoint that contract as one that set a new, unrealistic standard for how much players should earn and sent the NHL on a collision course towards the lockout. (Yashin's contract was eventually bought out in 2007.)

Given the efficiency of the salary cap in leagues like the NFL, it was only a matter of time before the NHL implemented its own version. But without that, we would have seen several more years in the red thanks to inflating player contracts and overspending by NHL clubs.

Had the lockout never taken place, our league today would look entirely different geographically speaking as well. Without a salary cap, a number of NHL teams would ultimately have been relocated. Since there was no big TV broadcasting deal like other leagues had, the NHL relied heavily on in-person attendance for revenue, leaving struggling teams like the Nashville Predators in a tight spot. The Preds came close to moving to Hamilton, Ont. in the years following the lockout but that would have been a certainty if TV broadcasting hadn't given the league such a boost following the hiatus, thanks to the funding of NHL Network and the deal with NBC.

The Pittsburgh Penguins would likely be another team left vulnerable to relocation, and it almost happened anyway in 2007. But the financial upswing that resulted from the introduction of the salary cap was likely a big factor that saved the team, along with the additions of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

Sidney Crosby might not become a Penguin

Because of the lockout, the NHL introduced a new lottery system for the 2005 NHL Draft. Each team was given odds to land the first overall pick based on team success over the past three seasons in an effort to make it as fair as possible. The clubs that had fewer playoff appearances in the previous three years, plus fewer No. 1 draft picks in the past four years, were given the highest chances.

Four teams were tied for the highest odds to get the first overall pick: the Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Rangers, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Buffalo Sabres. The Penguins won this lottery, and the rest is history as they drafted franchise superstar Sidney Crosby.

But if the 2004-05 season was played as usual, then Crosby very well could be wearing a different sweater today. The draft back then was based strictly on standings, so the team with the lowest point total would be awarded the No. 1 pick, and so on.

At that point, the Penguins had a top-five selection in each of the last three drafts, including Marc-Andre Fleury first overall in 2003 and Evgeni Malkin second overall in 2004. Had the 2004-05 season not been cancelled, it's reasonable to assume that Pittsburgh would have finished somewhere above dead last in the league, leaving Crosby up for grabs elsewhere.

In that alternate timeline, the Penguins almost certainly get moved. But Pittsburgh went from being the second-least valuable team in 2004 to an increase of 161.2 percent in value, just five years after the lockout. Crosby was not only instrumental in the run to the 2009 Stanley Cup, but in keeping the team in Steel City.

Ovechkin takes advantage of his prime

Alex Ovechkin was forced to wait a year to make his NHL debut after being drafted by the Washington Capitals in 2004, eventually becoming a rookie at the same time as Crosby. That created one of the great storylines of the modern era of hockey: Sid the Kid vs. the Great 8.

But what if Ovechkin had another season under his belt? The obvious answer is that he would have broken Wayne Gretzky's "unbreakable" record a lot sooner. In his first five NHL seasons, Ovechkin scored 50 or more goals four times and scored 46 in the other. He may not have rivalled Teemu Selanne's record for most goals as a rookie with 76, but Ovechkin easily would have posted another 50-goal campaign in 2004-05.

All things considered, the lockout was a necessary evil. The league went from dire financial straits to having 26 teams increase their annual revenue beginning in 2005-06. Although we wish we didn't have to lose a year of hockey with guys like Selanne and Ovechkin still on the up-and-up, the lockout likely saved the NHL as we know it.