Twenty years ago, Italy's women's Olympic hockey debut didn't exactly go that well. Not only did Italy fail to win a single game in that tournament, but they were only able to score three goals through five games.
This time around, not much was expected of this entry. Save for a result against France and some determined effort in front of a home crowd, a lot of people (myself included) put this team outside of the knockout spots.
Alas, we were proven wrong.
While Italy did get the result against France - a 4-1 win that gave them three points at the first time of asking - in addition to some determined play, the Italians didn't stop at the bare minimum. Not only did they upset Japan 3-2 in their third group game, but they also came close to earning a result against a strong German team. Together, Italy's performance was enough to secure third-place in Group B and their first-ever knockout berth at an Olympic women's hockey tournament.
Though their group stage will end with the 2-1 loss to Germany, Italy already exceeded expectations and are riding a huge wave of confidence.
As a result, the path to a medal becomes simple: win one game and you'll have two chances to earn one of the three medals up for grabs.
The problem? That one game standing between Italy and two shots at a medal sees the Italians taking on a United States side that practically cruised through the group stage.
Here are a few stats that should bewilder any attempt at an earthly comprehension of this United States women's team.
In each of their four group games, the United States scored five goals; over that same time span, the Americans conceded just one goal and shut out Switzerland, Finland, and Canada. In each of the four games, the United States got at least thirty-three shots on goal; at the same time, they conceded under twenty shots in three of the four group games (the lone team to put up 20+ shots on goal and attempt to make the shot count interesting was Canada).
Penalty minutes? Never heard of her. The United States had four penalty minutes in two games (against Canada and Switzerland), two penalty minutes against Czechia, and a grand total of no penalties against Finland.
The moral of the story? Italy is going to have to play a near perfect game just to keep pace with the Americans.
That said, there are some ways that Italy can win. For one, the goaltending has been good for much of the group stage. Goaltenders Marina Fedel and Gabriella Durante have put up some solid numbers throughout their shared time in the Italian crease. Though Marina Fedel got Italy's women's hockey team its first Olympic hockey win, stopping fourteen of fifteen shots on goals from France, Gabriella Durante has been the consistent force in net as of recent. On 68 total shots in goal, Durante has a save percentage of .927; for Fedel, she has a save percentage of .873 with 47 total shots (Martina Fedel was in net for five of the six goals scored by Sweden in Italy's second group games).
Other factors that will be decisive in any Italian upset of the United States include their ability to play defence. Against Germany, Italy showed their ability to break up offensive chances by getting in the way of offensive zone passes and block close-range shots.
Going the other way will be the question for Italy. Italy has shown it's capable of quickly getting out of their own end and doing so in numbers, but an inability to convert their chances and put pressure on the defence cost them dearly against Germany and Sweden. If Italy is to beat the United States, they'll need to ensure that they're getting all of their shots towards the American goal and that they can avoid being hemmed in their own end for two minutes by a United States attack that is more than capable of scoring quickly and at will.
The last big question: what kind of a role does the home crowd play? By watching any of Italy's four group games, you'd more than likely notice that the crowd was firmly behind Italy and that the crowd was almost always loud. And when I say loud, I mean loud.
For a game bridging the group stage and the medal rounds, expect the passion of the crowd to be amplified, especially in the first period.
That's another big reason why Italy has to get off to a strong start and keep the United States from pulling away.
From what I've seen from Italy, they're more than capable of keeping the United States in check. Even when they were getting outshot by Sweden, the Italians did well to stay within a goal for half of the game. If they can stay within a goal of the United States for the game's first thirty minutes while getting a goal of their own, one should feel good about Italy's chances in this quarterfinal tie.
In terms of a prediction, I do think Italy can keep themselves close to the Americans. It might not end in a win, but a determined first half will give the United States a reality check of sorts. Though the Americans pull away late, I don't see them winning by more than three.