As Kirill Kaprizov is making waves with his record-breaking contract extension, Dallas Stars forward Jason Robertson is another notable player in the market for a new deal, and we're learning more about his plans for the upcoming season.
The 26-year-old shared his thoughts with NHL.com's Mike Heika at training camp, explaining that talks of an extension will likely be waiting until next summer when Robertson is set to become an RFA on July 1.
“It doesn’t really bother me,” Robertson said of the buzz surrounding a potential contract extension in Dallas. “I think what is important is this year for us as a team. The window is open, we’re trying to win it this year, and then we’ll look at [the contract].”
Previously, Robertson had said to members of the media during the offseason that talks between his camp and Stars GM Jim Nill had slowly begun to get underway, but neither side is in any rush to get a deal done. After all, the Stars still have control of his rights for another season after next summer.
On the management side of things, Nill told reporters that "I don't blame him" for wanting to play out the 2025-26 season before shifting his focus to inking a new deal. The three-time GM of the Year recipient added that he understands Robertson "wants to see what the market is" primed for a major bounceback season, after missing all of last year's training camp due to an offseason foot surgery.
Despite not being able to train to his full ability during the summer of 2024, Robertson still put up his third straight 80-point season which included 35 goals. He also has two previous 40-goal seasons under his belt, and has cracked the 100-point mark once during the 2022-23 season, earning him fourth-place consideration for the Hart Trophy as the league's MVP.
There will likely be no news regarding a Robertson extension anytime soon, but his comments raise the question of what his next deal will include as far as length and annual salary.
What could Jason Robertson's next contract look like?
Some have speculated that Robertson could be looking for a shorter-term deal purely for the business side of things. A one- or two-year deal would take him to unrestricted free agent status right in the peak of his career, maximizing the value of his next contract.
However, that seems to be the least likely outcome. Far more likely is that Robertson signs an extension with the Stars before hitting RFA status on July 1 -- that is, if they can afford his rising price tag.
The sports consulting firm AFP Analytics has already projected that a maximum-length contract extension could be in the range of $11.5 million annually for an eight-year deal. But that projection was calculated prior to Kaprizov's contract extension, which could push Robertson's future contract further north.
Robertson and Kaprizov entered the league at the same time in 2020-21, with Kaprizov beating out Robertson for the Calder Trophy in their rookie season. Since then, Kaprizov has battled through injuries on more than one occasion. But even considering Kaprizov's injuries, and the fact that Robertson has remained healthy for the majority of his career, Kaprizov has scored at an elite rate averaging 104 points per 82 games over the last four seasons. In the same time frame, Robertson has averaged 90 points per 82 games. Maybe not as explosive as Kaprizov, but still a reliable, game-changing amount of offense.
Considering that Robertson averages 86.4 percent of the point production that Kaprizov does, let's multiply that figure with Kaprizov's new salary of $17 million per year, which would give us $14.7 million. That gives us a reasonable upper range for Robertson's next contract. Is it the most likely outcome that Robertson will near $15 million AAV? Maybe not, but based strictly on offensive output, the math certainly checks out.
The Stars are expected to have $27.9 million in cap space next summer, with other RFAs like Mavrik Bourque, Nils Lundkvist and Thomas Harley all in the market for extensions. We won't know what Robertson's next deal looks like for quite some time, but we have an idea of where the chips could fall when it comes time to put pen to paper.