If you watched Jason Robertson's two-goal performance Tuesday night against the Boston Bruins, you'd probably be forgiven for thinking that he was actually at the centre of ongoing trade rumours.
Despite all the chatter going on around him, Robertson has still been one of Dallas' best players this year. He's also been a key cog in a Stars offence that has consistently looked the part of a Cup contender yet having failed to advance out of the Conference Final for three straight seasons.
Even with the playoff shortcomings in mind, the financial side is where things are about to get real tricky for Dallas. Jason Robertson is set to become a restricted free agent this offseason and an unrestricted free agent following the 2026-27 season. He's also been making $7.75 million on his current contract and could be set to ask for around $12 million on a new extension, similar to what Mikko Rantanen makes and just outside of Tyler Seguin's ballpark.
That's already an issue. Dallas is set to be almost $1.3 million below the cap and with six other players making over $8 million a year, the Stars would have to shed significant amounts of talent to be able to afford long-term extensions for seven players. We're not talking about shedding non-roster talent like Emil Hemming, we might be talking about franchise cornerstones like Jamie Benn and Sam Steel potentially being disregarded over the next few years.
The Stars could sign Robertson to a one-year deal in the $9 million ballpark; however, this would only succeed at kicking the can that is Dallas' big decision down the road.
Even though a Jason Robertson trade is currently unlikely, there would be suitors for the winger. Not only that, but there's a very good chance Dallas could command a hefty return.
According to PuckPedia, there are three teams that are currently in playoff/Cup contention that have the cap space to make a move for Jason Robertson work: the Detroit Red Wings, the Carolina Hurricanes, and the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Of those three teams, the Detroit Red Wings have the most cap space available, with $13 million in salary cap space waiting to be used. Not only is that more than enough to bring Jason Robertson into the fold and to potentially get him locked up to an extension, but it would still give Detroit flexibility with regard to getting restricted free agents signed and initiating extension negotiations with players like Alex DeBrincat.
With both Patrick Kane and James van Riemsdyk set to hit free agency this offseason, acquring Jason Robertson would allow for Detroit to fill a hole that may present itself this July. And with Lucas Raymond being the only winger locked up beyond the 2027-2028 season, the urgency will be there for the Red Wings to either lock up their own wingers or to trade for someone and sign them to an extension.
A potential return would likely see Detroit ship off a rental or two, with a winger and a veteran defenceman likely making up part of the return. Detroit could also send an early-round pick in this year's NHL draft in addition to non-roster talents like Carter Bear.
That said, there's a good chance that Pittsburgh ends up being favoured to land Jason Robertson. While the Penguins don't have as much cap space as Detroit - they are projected to have around $11.5 million in cap space - they have the ability to enter negotiations in a position of strength.
In terms of Robertson's fit with Pittsburgh, he would provide the team with a younger option at the wing; three of Pittsburgh's free-agency bound wingers are at least 31 years old. And with other wingers like Justin Brazeau set to hit free agency after the 2026-27 season, a move for Jason Robertson could also come with the potential to negotiate an extension, giving the Penguins some long-term depth at the wing.
A potential return would see Pittsburgh send two of their free-agency bound wingers; Noel Acciari and Anthony Mantha would be the two likeliest wingers on Dallas' radar in this regard. The Penguins also hold a pair of second and third-round picks in each of the next three drafts; alongside the two aforementioned players, a return could see Dallas pick up at least three early-to-mid-round selections to build up their prospect pool. If Dallas wants prospects, Rutger McGroarty is a player with potential that Dallas could pick up as a short-to-medium-term option; McGroarty becomes a restricted free agent after the 2026-27 season.
Considering that the Carolina Hurricanes are going to enter the postseason in Cup-or-bust mode, scoring depth is going to be on Carolina's shopping list.
The one issue that is going to go against Carolina's push to acquire Jason Robertson? Cap space.
The Hurricanes only have around $8 million in cap space, which would necessitate a return involving players with more expensive contracts.
That could be easier said than done. Jesperi Kotkaniemi had previously found himself in the trade rumour mill; it would not be surprising if he found himself facing a fresh start in the Lone Star State. Moving Kotkaniemi would clear up almost $5 million in cap space that could be used to lock Jason Robertson into another contract should he choose to remain in Raleigh.
Jordan Martinook could be another name to watch in a potential return. Despite putting up 30+ point campaigns in each of the last three seasons, he's struggled to maintain that same rate so far this season. Trading him would also give the Hurricanes $3 million in cap space, allowing for the team to bring goaltender Brandon Bussi back on a new deal.
In terms of draft picks, keep an eye on the Hurricanes' two first-rounders in 2028. Carolina could use draft capital to get a player like Jason Robertson for their playoff push; moving a first-rounder might be a necessity in this regard. The Hurricanes do also own their own first-rounders in each of the next two drafts.
With rumours conflicting and emerging on a daily basis, it's reasonable to wonder if Jason Robertson's days in Dallas are numbered. Jason Robertson and the Stars could still easily agree to an extension. Even then, unless Dallas is willing to pay a price to keep him alongside the six players they have locked up to expensive contracts, it may seem likely that the winger finds himself chasing the playoffs with another organization.