The Maple Leafs have had one of their best regular season performances we've seen in some time as they sit atop the Atlantic division now. The Leafs performance this season isn't surprising when you look at this offensive group on paper, William Nylander is currently second in the NHL this season for goals, John Tavares is tied for ninth, Mitch Marner is tied for third in assists and fifth for points overall.
Auston Matthews took some time off earlier this season he's still put up 31 goals so far in his 65 games played. Then, we have Matthew Knies who has broken out this season and put up 55 points (29G-26A).
This is a strong group they've put together but unfortunately, it doesn't look like things will remain the same next season as the Leafs organization has some big offseason decisions to make with both Tavares and Marner becoming UFAs and Matthew Knies an RFA. The good news is that Auston Matthews and William Nylander are both locked in until the end of the 2028 season.
Marner's last contract had an estimated $10.9M AAV, Tavares' carried $11M AAV, while Knies is coming off his entry-level contract and is worth a lot more than $925K. To put into perspective what Knies could get close to in comparison to his performance this season, let's just say he has the same amount of points, goals, and assists as Brady Tkachuk this season who carries an estimated $8.2M AAV... while he won't get there yet he will be worth a few million.
When push comes to shove, you're running out of options when some of those players need new contracts and you know it won't all fit. While most people are speculating Marner is going to be that guy that walks this season, I want to discuss why if you're forced from choosing between Tavares or Marner- to stick with Marner. If only Tavares or Marner can stay for next season, there are a few key points to why I value Marner much more than Tavares for the Leafs organization.
Playmaker
Marner is a playmaker. He's third in the league for assists. Being tied with Connor McDavid is quite an achievement. Auston Matthews has 31 goals this season, 19 (61%) of those goals have an assist from Marner on it. Matthew Knies has 29 goals this season-15 (56%) of those have an assist from Marner. William Nylander's 45 goals this season, putting him second in the league for goals-11 (24%) are assisted by Marner.
John Tavares, has 38 goals and 15 (39%) are assisted by Marner. Marner is a right wing who can do it all, Tavares can score, but you already have Knies, Marner, Nylander and Matthews to uphold that. Remember Connor McDavid's 4 Nation's OT goal? Remember how that puck got onto his stick?
Age and Longevity
John Tavares is 34, Mitch Marner is 27. Marner has plenty of time left to consistently put up the points he is right now, and while yes, Tavares has still had an amazing season, he will only slow down over the next few years or eventually hang it up. It's more of a gamble with players that are into their 30's especially when you consider what happens if they get injured.
Lines
If we look at what would happen if Tavares left within their current line combos, hypothetically, if everyone else stayed- you still have a ton of high-goal scorers and the Knies-Matthews-Marner line is something I would not mess with.
Now let's say Marner walks. Nylander comes in and takes over the first line right wing most likely, which is fine, but then you're putting Tavares between Max Domi and who? Nick Robertson isn't ready to move up and a second-line center is much easier to acquire to fill in for Tavares and keep Nylander on the second line where he's thriving because he can score no matter what.
Franchise Loyalty
I'm all for legacy and loyalty, and I think it's disrespectful of organization, even if it is a business, to let key players drafted by you walk. Mitch Marner was drafted by the Leafs, and I would hate to see him play for another organization, knowing how much he's done for them.
Tavares has made a switch before and with him winding down in his career, I think it's only fair to keep the drafted player who has been loyal. Marner would be at the age Tavares was when he came to the Leafs. Remember how that turned out for him in his return to Long Island?
Don't make Leafs fans suffer in a few years when you're missing that playmaker who's putting up points with another organization and Tavares has either retired or slowed down significantly. Of course, with this one it goes both ways. I think Marner needs to lower his asking price and can't be greedy with the organization that has also done a lot for him.
Especially with 46 centers currently becoming available this summer and how the Leafs have been at developing players. The second line actually takes more of a hit removing Tavares from it than removing Marner from the first when you think about it.
The Leafs organization is in for a hard offseason with the decisions they have to make and I don't think there's any option here for them to keep all fans happy. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out and what the roster looks like for the start of the 2025-2026 season but if Marner isn't on it I fear that they won't see the same success.