In a rematch for the ages, the Edmonton Oilers will be facing off against the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Finals for the second year in a row -- and it's shaping up to be a gritty series.
Last year, the Oilers came out on top after defeating Dallas in six games to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. But the Stars didn't have Mikko Rantanen then, who has more points in 13 games than any Dallas skater had through 19 games last year.
This has the potential to be not only one of the highest-scoring series we've seen this postseason, but one of the most exciting matchups. Both teams have contributions coming from all sources, but are headlined by their superstar scorers.
During the regular season, the Stars bested the Oilers 2-1-0 with 12 goals across the three meetings. Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson led the way with six points apiece in those games.
It's anyone's game headed into the Stars' third straight WCF appearance, and the Oilers' third in four years. But if the regular season series between these teams is any indication, then Dallas has a real chance at crushing the Oilers' hopes for a second consecutive trip to the Stanley Cup Finals. Here are some of the game-changers that could boost either team to victory.
The Oilers are superior at even strength
Edmonton is getting goals from every line, and that's had a major impact on the team's success. Of course, that's not to mention Connor McDavid's team-leading 17 points and Leon Draisaitl close behind with 16 points in 11 games.
No team has hit the back of the net more than the Oilers, with 43 goals scored in the first two rounds. That trend extends to scoring at even strength -- Edmonton's 29 goals at 5v5 also leads the NHL.
"They’re a deeper team this year than they were last year. You see they’re getting scoring from a lot of places other than McDavid and Draisaitl, and they still have that element, obviously, every night."Stars coach Pete DeBoer, to NHL.com
The Stars, on the other hand, have just 20 goals at 5v5 and a total of 34 goals in 13 games. Surprisingly, Dallas also has poor numbers in terms of puck possession at even strength with a Corsi for of 45.5% while being out-chanced 155-140.
The Oilers are significantly stronger in that category, controlling play with a 54.1 CF%. The team has 36 more scoring chances than the opponents and a +8 goal differential at 5v5, compared to a -2 for Dallas.
Most of the game is of course played at even strength and Edmonton has the clear edge in that regard, but games can be won or lost via special teams and the Stars easily out-rank the Oilers there.
Stars have commanding special teams
One of the biggest issues for the Oilers has been killing off penalties, and that spells trouble against a highly efficient Stars power play. Dallas has scored a league-best 12 power play goals for a 30.8 PP%.
That includes the series-clinching overtime goal in Game 6 against the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday, when Thomas Harley's PPG punched the Stars ticket to the third round. Rantanen is tied for the most power play points in the NHL, recording six points on the man advantage.
Meanwhile, Edmonton has only been able to kill of two-thirds of penalties during the playoffs, allowing a league-high 11 power play goals against on 33 opportunities.
While the Oilers power play has been decent at 25.0%, that's mostly thanks to the team's first round performance against the Los Angeles Kings. Edmonton scored five of its six total PPG in the opening series, going just 1-for-11 in the second round.
The Stars come out on top of that matchup as well. Dallas owns the third-best PK in the league at 86.1%, though the team takes among the most penalties averaging three per game.
The Oilers' special teams are in a slump, so if the Stars can take advantage of that as we've seen thus far, there's a good chance that it could influence the outcome of this series.
Strong goaltending matchup
Jake Oettinger has been one of the strongest netminders in the league during this postseason. His .919 SV% is third-best among goalies with at least three games played, and he's the only player to reach eight wins on his own entering Sunday.
Oettinger also has the best goals saved above average in the NHL with a whopping 7.88 GSAA per Natural Stat Trick. That number represents the amount of goals he was expected to allow, minus the number of goals he has actually let in so far. Any positive number in that category indicates that a goaltender is stopping more shots than the average NHLer.
Meanwhile, Stuart Skinner has had a triumphant return after losing the starting role to his backup, Cal Pickard. He had a rough performance in the first round with 11 goals against in his first two starts. After sitting out for six games, Skinner returned after Pickard's injury to post a .944 SV% in his last three including back-to-back shutouts against the Vegas Golden Knights.
The bad news: Skinner has been inconsistent and it's hard to predict how he's going to perform on any given night. The good news: Pickard stepped up to the challenge to earn a win in each one of the six games he started, and he should be ready to go for the Western Conference Final.
Oettinger surely comes out on top in the battle of the netminders, but he has yet to face an offensive powerhouse like the Oilers. Edmonton has generated more high-danger chances than any other team.
Between the dominating play we've seen from both of these teams in different situations, this series could go the distance. Either one of these clubs is capable of moving on to the Stanley Cup Finals, and it'll take a high-intesity battle to get there.