A disappointing 2024-25 season would see the Ottawa 67's record just 58 points in the standings and miss the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. However, the 67's 2025-26 season would see them improve by 40 points and finish in the top-three of the Eastern Conference.
Despite their strong season, Ottawa would be unable to finish as the East's top-seed due to seeding rules (division winners are guaranteed a top-two seed in the final standings). As a result, the 67's must settle for third-place in the East and a first-round encounter with a retooling-but-dangerous Kingston Frontenacs side, whose finish to the regular season can be seen to draw two different conclusions. On one hand, wins in seven of their last 10 games allowed Kingston to move ahead of the Niagara IceDogs for sixth in the Eastern Conference and to finish the season with a winning record (33-30-3-2). On the other hand, two straight losses to close the season - a 4-2 decision against the Peterborough Petes and a 6-1 blowout against Ottawa - doesn't exactly give Kingston any more confidence to start the playoffs.
The head-to-head series between the two teams saw the 67's win six of the eight matchups. One of Kingston's two head-to-head victories came in a shootout win at the Slush Puppie Place, while their second win was a 4-2 victory on October 19th. It's also worth noting that five of the eight games were either decided in regulation or by less than two goals.
Could goaltending be what decides this series?
While the 67's goaltending tandem may seem like the better unit, it's not necessarily miles better than that of the Frontenacs.
Sure, one could say that both 67s' goaltenders are in the top-three when it comes to the goals against average, and they'd be right; Ryder Fetterolf leads the OHL with a 2.07 goals against average while his teammate Jaeden sits in third with a measure of 2.33. Fetterolf also has the league's best save percentage at .923, while Nelson sits in fifth with a .915.
In terms of save percentage, Kingston isn't exactly that far off; Matthew Minchak holds a .910 save percentage while Betts' rate is a .905. That said, the Frontenacs do trail significantly in terms of the goals against average; Minchak gives up almost three goals per game while Betts is only slightly better at 2.81.
Minchak does contend well with the 67s' tandem in terms of goals against; while Nelson leads the OHL with just 65 goals against, Minchak separates the two Ottawa netminders with three fewer goals conceded than Fetterolf. Kingston also does well to contend with Ottawa in terms of saves made; of the four netminders, Betts leads the way in saves with 1080 to his name, while Fetterolf has 1013 to his name. Minchak has the third most saves with 818, while Nelson made just shy of 700 saves on the season.
One more issue on the table? How both goaltending units respond to goalscoring.
That issue might be considerably more worrisome for the Frontenacs than the 67's, especially considering that Ottawa scored the second-most goals in the Eastern Conference (265). Meanwhile, the Frontenacs scored only 212 goals; alongside the fact that Kingston gave up almost 50 goals more than Ottawa over the course of the season, it's possible to give the general goal-scoring/goal-conceding edge to Ottawa.
The good news for the Frontenacs is that their penalty kill is one of six units that has an efficiency of 80% or more (Kingston's penalty kill has an efficiency of 80.9%). Not only is Ottawa's penalty kill not in that list of six teams, but their unit is over 3% less efficient than that of Kingston.
Final prediction: 67's in six
As mentioned above, Kingston's chance to take a few games will come on the defensive end of the ice; if they can consistently keep the scoring to a minimum and play to the same level as Ottawa's defence, then the Frontenacs should be able to have a chance at winning games in this series. Add on the goaltending and there is a path for the Frontenacs to steal a game or two from the 67's.
While Ottawa will walk away with the series win, I can't imagine a way in which this series ends quickly.