Why each on the bubble team will make the NHL playoffs and why they won’t
The NHL playoffs will be here before we know it, and as always, there are a slew of on the bubble teams looking to sneak into a wild card spot.
It won’t be long until the NHL playoffs officially begin, but for a strong contingent of teams, the playoffs unofficially commence in March since they are quite a few points back from their respective conferences’ wild card spots. However, with a month to go in the season, teams that wouldn’t earn a playoff berth if the season ended today still have enough time to do everything in their power to put themselves in position to play more than 82 games.
Sure, those ahead of them need to lose more than they’re winning at the moment, but we have seen plenty of races come down to the last few games of the season in the past. And since there are still a good bit of teams that find themselves six or fewer points out of the second wild card spot, anything can happen between now and mid-April.
Plenty of on the bubble teams can still reach the NHL playoffs
Seven teams not currently in the second wild card slot can realistically earn a trip to the postseason, and two are looking to end some long playoff droughts, one of which is the longest in league history. Two teams on the outside looking in appeared to be finished earlier in the calendar year, but they have since become some of the NHL’s hottest groups.
Another two have done the opposite, looking as though they were on their way to unprecedented playoff appearances before they hit turbulence in mid-February and have yet to get back on track. Another team on this list has been arguably the most inconsistent contender this year, but they have won just enough to sit just a few points out of a playoff spot.
So, let’s reveal who these teams are and discuss why they will, and won’t, play hockey when the playoffs commence about five weeks from now.
Detroit Red Wings
If there was one team that looked like a true playoff contender, and perhaps one that would finish in the top three of a division dominated by four others lately, it’s the Detroit Red Wings. Unfortunately for Detroit, a seven-game losing streak has taken this team out of even a wild card slot for the moment.
Detroit can still make a few adjustments and start winning again, but it must happen sooner than later if they plan on controlling their destiny. The good news is that they should get their captain, Dylan Larkin, back at some point, and his presence could be the catalyst for turning things around before they get out of hand.
With Larkin on the ice, the Red Wings are a top-five team in the scoring department. And although their goaltending and defensive play have been among the worst in the NHL throughout the entire season, they are hard to beat when forcing opponents to routinely score at least four goals on them.
If Detroit starts scoring again when Larkin returns, expect the Red Wings to climb right back into one of the two wild card slots and cruise into the playoffs. But it’s also fair to ask whether there will be rust when he’s back in the lineup, and if the answer is yes, they need to quickly shake off any lack of chemistry.
If the Red Wings keep losing while Larkin remains sidelined, and if they can’t regain that chemistry early upon his return, the playoffs aren’t happening this year. It won’t be long until we see Larkin again and have our answer.
New Jersey Devils
The New Jersey Devils are another team that isn’t completely out of the playoff race, sitting just four points behind the New York Islanders for the second spot in the wild card. While this team has been in shambles for most of a season that included relieving their head coach, the Devils are a prime example that shows why you keep playing hard until there is an ‘e’ beside your name.
Of course, Detroit’s collapse is one reason the Devils - and a few other teams on this list - are still well within reach of that second wild card. However, timing and circumstance are a pair of factors for unprecedented success, and with the Red Wings ailing during the playoff race and the fact the Devils are winning just enough to stay within reach, it’s why a postseason trip isn’t totally out of the question.
One reason they can make their season last beyond 82 games is their ability to score. With 218 goals in 66 games, the Devils are still among the most high-octane teams in the Eastern Conference. While their goaltending is nowhere near stellar, Kaapo Kahkonen and Jake Allen are a much better combo than what we have seen lately in Newark.
But Kahkonen and Allen are both 1B-caliber goaltenders and nothing more. So if one or the other gets most of the reps, or if the Devils roll with a three-goaltender rotation, it will be tough to see them making it to the postseason. In short, this team needs to score an average of at least four goals per game to stay relevant and predominantly roll with the Kahkonen/Allen combo.
St. Louis Blues
The St. Louis Blues are one of two underperforming teams on this list who have done just enough to stick around the playoff conversation. With recent wins over the Boston Bruins and the Los Angeles Kings by a combined score of 8-2, however, the Blues have shown us they can knock off high-caliber playoff teams.
The main issue with the Blues, however, is that they just can’t score, having put up just 36 goals in their previous 15 contests, which averages to just 2.4 per game. And here is where things get interesting: Take out their two most recent wins, and they scored 28 in 13 games, or a meager 2.15 per contest.
It’s good to see an outburst offensively, but so far, it’s short-lived, and St. Louis has been hurting because of their lack of productivity in the offensive zone. Unless they show us they can score at least three per game, and even that may not be enough, St. Louis will miss the playoffs.
However, they do boast a good defensive game, and it has led the Blues allowing just 201 goals so far this season, good for 13th in the league. If they keep up that consistency when they don’t have the puck, St. Louis won’t be forced to score so often to put themselves in position to make the playoffs.
Yet, since they don’t control their own destiny and are six points back, it could be too late at this point in the season.
Washington Capitals
With 71 points this season, the Washington Capitals have somehow put themselves in a prime position to break into the second wild card spot despite ranking an abysmal 29th in scoring with 174 goals, or 2.68 per game. What’s even more impressive is the fact that, like a few other teams on this list, Washington sold at the trade deadline.
But here they are, sitting just one point outside of a wild card spot despite opponents outscoring them 11-4 in their previous two contests. It’s clear that this team has done just enough to stick around the outside looking in all season, and they have routinely beaten opponents by three or more goals since February 10th - when they managed to win games, that is.
However, consistency is an issue, and while Washington has beaten teams handily lately, they have also been losing games by three or more goals just as often. For the Capitals, it’s all about getting consistent in the win column, and if they can figure out a way to maintain it, they will be in the playoffs should the Islanders or the Lightning slip up.
With just over four weeks left in the regular season, the Caps have given us no reason to believe they will gain that consistency. Unless they turn the corner, it’s hard to project them earning a playoff berth in 2024.
Minnesota Wild
Although they may regret selling their best lower-liners at the trade deadline, few teams have gotten as hot as the Minnesota Wild since the All-Star Break ended. Minnesota is an incredible 12-4-2 in that span, and while the strong play hasn’t saved their season, they definitely re-entered the playoff picture.
Before February, the Wild were 21-23-5, good for just 47 points and the fourth-worst mark in the Western Conference. It’s true that their recent surge is nothing more than a solid month-and-a-half, but it’s also becoming apparent that nobody can figure out Minnesota.
Throughout their run, offense has been their game, having scored 61 goals in those 18 games and averaging 3.38 per contest. The Wild haven’t fared incredibly well defensively, allowing 2.77 goals per game in the same stretch.
For the Wild, it comes down to whether anyone can stop their momentum, but here’s the kicker: They’re playing the Anaheim Ducks, the St. Louis Blues, and the San Jose Sharks in four of their last six contests this month.
If Minnesota can beat the teams they are better than on paper and a few legitimate contenders in the final month of the season, they will have done everything in their power to reach the postseason. But they also sit six points behind the Golden Knights, and nobody improved better than Vegas last week.
Buffalo Sabres
The Buffalo Sabres have played like anything but a playoff team this season, as even stringing together two straight wins seemed like a luxury. However, they also haven’t embarked on many losing streaks, and have finally played like the team its fan base expected when the calendar turned to 2024.
Buffalo is still a young team that only ‘bought’ a 22-year-old defenseman at the trade deadline while they traded away key assets Casey Mittelstadt, Kyle Okposo, and Erik Johnson. Despite the trades, the Sabres only find themselves three points back from the second wild card spot with wins over the Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, Vegas Golden Knights, and New York Islanders in March.
For the past three seasons, the Sabres have saved their best hockey for the final few weeks. It happened last season after a pedestrian stretch in the first three weeks of March. We also saw it occur in 2022 when the Sabres won roughly two-thirds of their games in the season's last two months.
If the Sabres goaltending stays consistent, and if they finally start scoring at a high-octane pace, there is a chance the league’s youngest team finally breaks through. But just like last year, they aren’t in control of their destiny, so they will need help to clinch a wild card spot.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Next to the Red Wings, the Penguins may have suffered through the worst recent stretch of any team on this list. Since February 29th, Pittsburgh is 2-6-1, and they have scored just 17 goals while allowing 35. A far cry from the team that won the Stanley Cup in 2016-17, Pittsburgh’s recent win over the San Jose Sharks is the only reason they are on this list and sitting just five points out of the second wild card.
Yet of all the teams listed, the Penguins are the least likely to earn a playoff berth, mainly because they can’t score. Sure, they put up six on the San Jose Sharks on Thursday night, but this is also a bad San Jose Sharks team that sold off quite a few of their better players at last week’s trade deadline.
Take out their win over San Jose, and Pittsburgh found themselves shut out three times while they put up one or fewer goals on six different occasions. But they also have a pair of legends in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, both of whom can still lead a late-season turnaround and sneak into the postseason. There is a slim chance of this happening, but Sid and Geno are two players you can never count out.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference)