Spencer Carbery’s First Month in Review: How the system is working for Washington Capitals
It’s been close to a month since the puck dropped on the 2024/25 NHL season, which means it’s officially time to bring out the red marker for some well-overdue report cards.
The Washington Capitals have been one of the standouts to start the year, opening with nine wins from their first 13 games after being swept by the red-hot New York Rangers in the first round of the playoffs last season.
In terms of success, the Caps have been one of the most consistent teams in the league over the last two decades, missing the playoffs only twice since 2008 – the last occasion, 2023, costing three-year veteran coach Peter Laviolette his job.
In stepped Spencer Carbery at the beginning of last year, a former AHL coach who got his start in the big leagues as an assistant for the Leafs in 2021, helping steer Toronto to a 54-21-7 record.
Carbery's hire was well received in Washington after helping fix the Leafs' power play, and he quickly helped turn things around in the nation's capital with Washington finishing second in the East at 40-31-11.
Stats to Know
The Caps receive top marks across the board in just about every major statistical category.
The fact they rank eighth in goals but 26th in shots speaks to their efficiency and poise in front of the net, while they’ve also been a Top 5 side in terms of expected goals rate, according to Natural Stat Trick.
The power play is probably the one area that still needs some minor work. The Caps have accounted for only four goals with a man advantage from 37 opportunities, the second-fewest in the league.
On the flip side, this is a team that has been outstanding on the penalty kill, not only playing some of the most disciplined hockey in the league (17th in penalties) but also allowing just six goals when they do find themselves shorthanded.
Playoff Chances
MoneyPuck gives the Caps a 65% chance of making the playoffs after four weeks of play, which is a dramatic increase from the 19% figure we saw at the start of the year.
There’s still a long way to go and the East is always a rollercoaster, but Caps fans can rest easy knowing their team has already survived some tough games (and won) against the likes of the Stars and Rangers.
Looking ahead, Tankathon thinks the Caps have one of the easiest schedules over the next few months, ranking them 28th overall.
It’s still early days and in terms of injuries, the Capitals have been one of the healthiest teams in the league. But right now, you could happily have a bet on Washington to make the playoffs and feel pretty good about it.
Standout Players
Washington’s hot start is only more impressive when you factor in Alex Ovechkin’s chase for history.
Still 33 goals off Wayne Gretzky’s career total of 894, Ovi has been busy making up ground by scoring in five straight games – including Wednesday’s eventual game-winner against the Predators.
Ovi will continue doing Ovi things, but the fact his teammates – namely Tom Wilson and John Carlson – have managed to also dip into the fountain of youth has truly been one of the biggest reasons for the Caps’ hot start.
Wilson is only two goals off Ovi’s pace, while Carlson is averaging over 25 minutes of ice time – the most of any player on the roster.
Meanwhile, in the centre, Dylan Strome is holding down the fort nicely, while Connor McMichael has been super-efficient on the left wing with a shooting percentage of 22.2 per cent.
In net, Charlie Lindgren and first-year goalie Logan Thompson aren’t exactly Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark of Boston's past, but their numbers aren’t far off, either.
Lindgren has struggled in the win/loss columns, but he’s still allowing less than 3.00 goals per game. And as for Thompson, he’s sporting a perfect 5-0 record, a slightly worse GAA, and a .294 save percentage.
First Month Grade: A
The Caps, in particular Spencer Carbery, deserve high praise for their fast start given some of the bold changes this team made during the offseason.
We’re yet to see the best out of lucrative offseason trade piece Pierre-Luc Dubois, which is scary given the former Kings centre finished with 40 points in 82 games last season.
Former Flame Andrew Mangiapane also gets a mention having scored three goals despite averaging only 14 minutes of ice time – further validating the front office decision to add more veteran depth.
As a whole, the Caps have improved drastically on the same team that averaged only 2.63 goals per game last year, good for 28th in the league. For reference, they are currently averaging 4.18 through 12 games, and while Carbery would probably like his team to start taking more shots, there’s no doubt Washington has exceeded expectations as one of the biggest surprise stories to start the season.