The final two games of the 2026 women's Olympic hockey tournament are upon us. The first of those two games will see Sweden, who finished group play in first place and provided a defensive masterclass against Czechia to reach the medal rounds, will take on a Swiss team that finished in last place in Group A before narrowly escaping Finland in the quarterfinal round and losing to Canada by just one goal in the semifinal round.
Though Sweden will have their second of two opportunities to secure their first medal in almost two decades, Switzerland should be favoured here.
One of the big reasons Switzerland will be the favourite? Goaltending.
While the goaltending hasn't exactly been stellar for Switzerland, Saskia Maurer has done well to provide quality performances for her team; she was in goal for the first of Switzerland's competitive losses to Canada, where she stopped all but four of Canada's fifty-five shots. As for Andrea Brändli, despite being in net for the 5-0 loss to the United States, she did secure a shutout performance in the quarterfinal round against Finland.
That said, Sweden will have the counter in the form of their offence. Despite getting shut out against the United States, they had previously outscored each of their group stage opponents by at least three goals. The picture did shift in the knockouts; though the Swedes kept the shot count close, they could not find a way to capitalize on their offensive opportunities, scoring just twice through their first two knockout round games.
On the other hand, Switzerland hasn't exactly been able to produce much in the way of offence. In their group stage campaign, Switzerland scored just five times - the third-fewest group stage goals of any team at the Winter Olympics. Three of Switzerland's group stage goals would come in their comeback win against Czechia to open the tournament. Switzerland would only add two goals during their two knockout games while also getting dominated in the shot count in both matches.
If Sweden can find a way to break down the Swiss goaltending early and force Switzerland to chase the game early, they will likely secure the bronze. On the other hand, if Switzerland can keep Sweden from scoring and get even one goal, they can ride a strong defence to the bronze.
This game could really go both ways, but I'm going to stick with a resurgent Swiss goaltending unit and back it to lead Switzerland to the bronze.