Our TV sets are ready to be graced by the beautiful sight of World Juniors hockey. From blowouts galore to goaltending galore to hits galore to the seemingly-annual Czechia win over Canada (more on this in my Group B preview), it's almost time for annual junior ice hockey traditions to return.
In anticipation of the tournament's kickoff on Boxing Day, which will feature four games, I'll be previewing and predicting the final standings for each of the two groups. This first article will serve as a preview for Group A, featuring the host nation, the United States, in addition to Sweden, Slovakia, Switzerland, and Germany.
Teams will be discussed in order of predicted finish (point tallies included). Each team preview will include their 2025 finish, X-Factors for each roster, a justification of each team's finish, and what a successful tournament would look like.
1. United States (11 points)
The Americans might not be fielding as strong of a roster as last time, however the repeat gold medallists should be the favourites to top Group A.
That said, I do think it will come down to the wire. Why I say that is because the United States and Sweden, who I think are the second-most-likely team to top the group, don't play each other until the final day of preliminary round action. Barring any major upsets, the Sweden-United States game on New Year's Eve should decide who tops Group A and who comes second.
For me, the big X-Factor for the United States this tournament is going to be the goal-scoring. In last year's tournament, the Americans scored twenty-two goals in the preliminary round, which was second-best to Sweden (the two teams play each other in the last of four group-stage encounters). The Swedes will probably end up being the measuring stick for the United States in their home tournament; with Sweden expected to bring an organized and rigid game plan on both sides of the ice, the Americans will need to once again put forward a strong offensive showing in order to ensure strong seeding for the knockouts.
Considering that the United States won each of the previous two editions of the World Juniors (they've won their last three gold medal game appearances as well), the expectation for the United States should be a medal.
Actually, let's make that the bare minimum. The Americans should only deem this tournament a success if they find a way to make it to their third-consecutive gold medal game.
2. Sweden (10 points)
Despite being a dominant force in round-robin play and winning a medal in four of their last eight appearances in the World Juniors, the Swedes haven't been able to convert their strong starts to tournament play into a gold medal.
This year, they'll be in another favourable group that features two of the five teams (Slovakia and Switzerland) that appeared in their World Juniors group in last year's preliminary round.
Considering that World Juniors entry went undefeated in group play while scoring 24 goals, this year's team has a decent precedent in which to work from.
Anton Frondell, the third-overall pick in last year's NHL Draft, has a lot of offensive upside; his ability to harness that potential will be key in Sweden's hopes this time out. With the likes of Viktor Eklund also set to play a role in Sweden's attack, Frondell will need to bring consistent offensive production in order to ensure Sweden can compete on both ends of the ice. The same goes for the rest of Sweden's forward prospects; any miscommunication could be consequential in a game against teams like the United States.
Despite scoring an appearance in a medal game in all but two of the last nineteen editions of the tournament, Sweden's last gold medal came in 2012 when the likes of John Klingberg and Mika Zibanejad were in the early-stages of their careers. Sweden would also earn a medal in four of the last eight editions of the World Juniors.
Any successful tournament for Sweden will involve a medal in some form. However, like with the United States, the nation should ideally be aiming for a second gold-medal game in three ye
3. Slovakia (5 points)
The last time Slovakia made it to a medal game at the World Juniors? 2015. Their highest finish since that point? 6th place, which they achieved in each of the last three years.
This time around, they'll be bringing a younger roster that will once again look to seed some doubt into the typical final-four contenders, something the Slovaks have been able to do to a tee in recent years.
That youth movement will actually be the X-Factor for this Slovakia World Juniors entry. The last three World Juniors preliminary rounds saw Slovakia finish in third, second, and third, ultimately bowing out in the quarterfinals on each occasion. It remains to be seen if a younger Slovakian roster can provide the same challenge that past editions could, but with relegation-round contenders Germany and Switzerland both in the group, the Slovaks have a path to another top-three finish in the group stage.
That's actually my expectation for Slovakia in this edition of the World Juniors: a top-three group stage finish. While it remains to be seen if they earn their first knockout-stage win since 2015, the Slovaks have a more-than-favourable route to a strong group-stage finish.
4. Germany (3 points)
Alongside Switzerland, Germany was one of a handful of teams that were in the relegation-round conversation in the last edition of the World Juniors. While Germany did ultimately fall into that match and survive it, Switzerland was a final-day encounter with Kazakhstan away from earning that same fate.
I'll talk more about Switzerland a little later on. But since Germany's return to the World Juniors' top division, the team has been forced into the relegation round three times, with two of them coming in the last three editions.
While forward Max Penkin could easily be one of the more eye-catching players of the tournament and takes the role of X-Factor for this Germany squad given his strong showings at the junior level in Germany, such players will be have to be at the top of their game in all four of their group-stage games if they are to even have a chance at their first knockout round appearance since 2023.
The two games where Germany needs to at least secure a point are on December 27th against Slovakia and December 30th against Switzerland. Considering the occasional chaos that befell the early stages of the last World Juniors (look no further than Latvia stunning Canada and making a case to upset Sweden in the quarterfinals), it's impossible to completely rule out Germany stealing a point or two against the United States or Sweden. However, the Slovakia and Switzerland games would be more likely to produce a result favourable to Germany than the games against the United States and Sweden.
If Germany can improve on their point count from 2025 (they earned just one point in that tournament) and secure a spot in the knockouts, that will ensure Germany can walk away from this tournament with their heads held high.
5. Switzerland (1 point)
There was once a time where Switzerland was arguably seen as close to earning the powerhouse status in junior hockey, as the team's World Juniors' finishes basically took the pattern of a yo-yo since their return to the top division.
Over the course of the 2010's, the Swiss accumulated three top-five finishes with two appearances in the final-four of the knockouts; those results came in 2010, 2011, and 2019. They also fell into the relegation round twice over that ten-year span, with those appearances coming in 2015 and 2016.
This decade? Despite a fifth-place finish in 2020, the Swiss would fall into the relegation round the following year and just barely make it into the knockouts in each of the following four tournaments.
For me, the success of the Swiss team at the World Juniors will revolve around Lars Steiner, who is averaging a point every game for the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies of the QMJHL. While the Swiss are arguably the fifth-best team in this group, Steiner's ability to produce at a similar level to that seen at the club level should at least give his nation a fighting chance against the likes of the United States. But without consistent production from Lars Steiner and adequate help from his teammates, Switzerland might be all-but-condemned to a relegation-round appearance.
Like with Germany, any successful tournament for the Swiss will end in a knockout round appearance. It doesn't matter how it happens, but just getting to the knockout round should be a confidence booster for the Swiss.