With the rising cap, many young players are beginning to demand significantly higher contracts from the teams that drafted or acquired them. Many teams this year have entrusted the future of their franchises to younger players by giving them lucrative deals fresh off their restricted free agent status.
The purpose behind this list is to offer a different perspective and to highlight how consistency needs to be the focal point behind any contract extension, regardless of whether it’s a restricted free agent or an extension for a top-six forward. Nevertheless, it is without a doubt that the players mentioned below could prove that they are worth their contracts. This is more of a warning that they might not live up to their contractual expectations, and their contracts could hinder their teams in the long run.
1. Matthew Knies: Zack Hyman 2.0?
The newly extended power forward has seen an exponential rise in attention and expectation. When it comes to young players that are looking to break into the NHL, Knies should be commended for seizing the spotlight despite his limited skill set.
The left-wing forward is a crease-crashing, net-front presence with a dash of playmaking creativity. Knies can be compared to former Leaf, and current Edmonton Oiler, Zack Hyman due to his specific skill set and role on the Leafs roster. While that skill set is a commodity at times, Knies is a clear example of a buyer beware standard, “caveat emptor,” that general managers should exercise when potentially handing out expensive contracts to young players with much to prove.
With Knies securing his lucrative extension, a 6-year contract with a $7.75 million AAV, it should be worthwhile to prioritize consistency over a small sample size. Some comparable players that should serve as a warning are Brock Faber and Alexis Lafrenière, who are perfect examples of players that enter the league, make an eye-opening impact for a year, get paid, and then enter a post-contract slump.
To put it into context, Faber was a Calder Trophy finalist in 2023-24, where he posted 8 goals and 39 assists for 47 points, whereas this year he posted 10 goals and 19 assists for 29 points, marking a 38% decrease in production. Faber is currently on an 8-year deal with an $8.5 million AAV. Lafraniere, the former first overall pick in 2020, who also had his best statistical year in 2023-24 after scoring 28 goals and 29 assists for 57 points, saw a 21% decrease in production after he followed up his previous year with 17 goals and 28 assists for 45 points.
The former 2020 first overall pick is currently on a 7-year extension with a $7.45 million AAV. There is no doubt these two players can rebound from their year-long slump, but the circumstances behind their contracts serves as a warning for the potential stagnation that can occur after entrusting an up-and-coming player with a sizable contract.
To rationalize Knies' hefty contract extension, it can be reasoned that management is grooming Knies to be the new face of the franchise, with former captain John Tavares nearing the twilight years of his career and with a key member of the core four in Mitch Marner being traded to the Vegas Golden Knights. As a result, it can be assumed that the Leafs are preparing to elevate Matthew Knies to becoming the next member of their core, but this begs the question if he has earned that status in his first two years in the NHL. As a matter of fact, the extension feels more like an overcompensation and a panicked reaction by the Maple Leafs's front office as they anticipated losing Mitch Marner to free agency before he was traded to Vegas in a 1-for-1 trade for Nick Roy.
To pay a young player such as Knies a considerable amount of money, just to be a future face of the organization, is risky at best considering how he has much to prove in a growing league. With Knies projected to take his place as the team's first line left-winger, the stage is set for the power forward to demonstrate that he is well worth the money and the responsoibility that Toronto has granted him.
2. Matt Coronato: big contract for a small sample size?
The common theme behind the distaste for these recent contracts, is the lack of consistency. When it comes to Matt Coronato, the contract he was bestowed for such a small sample size should be a cause for concern. The Long Island native is fresh off a breakout season with 24 goals and 23 assists for 47 points in 77 games played. The right-winger was extended to a 7-year deal with a $6.5 million AAV. With the hefty price tag being paid by the Calgary Flames, is it really an appropriate salary for the young forward?
The main issue behind this extension is the lack of production. While it can be argued that Coronato is a rising star in the NHL, his one season as a middle-six contributor spells some questions into his consistency. His first season in the NHL was 2023-24, where Coronato scored 3 goals and 6 assists for 9 points in 34 games.
It should be noted that his success this year is quite remarkable considering the situation of the Calgary Flames, a team that is currently retooling and figuring out its identity. But a contract of this magnitude should only be bestowed when a player displays a consistent form of production and contribution to a team’s success, regardless of the cap’s exponential increase.
Arguably, the appropriate move for Coronato would’ve been a bridge deal similar to a player like Simon Holmstrom (signed at a 2-year extension with a $3.6 million AAV) in order to ensure his production can be maintained at a consistent pace. While time will tell if this contract will age well, Coronato is still a capable NHL forward with a ton of potential; that is undeniable. But with the uncertainty behind young and developing players maintaining consistency, Calgary should be wary if Coronato’s production decreases and his contract handicaps the front office from making future moves to improve the roster.
3. Jack McBain: hoping for a middle-six boost
Utah has been on quite the spending spree in their short tenure. Last year they made remarkable steps towards improving their roster, and their franchise overall after moving from Arizona, by acquiring players such as Mikhail Sergachev. But a spending spree has some implications, especially on a team's salary cap, and the Jack McBain extension raises some eyebrows.
McBain is a promising forward that was drafted in the third-round of the 2018 NHL draft by the Minnesota Wild but was traded to the Arizona Coyotes in 2022 for a second-round pick in the 2022 NHL Draft. He is a two-way center that provides space in the attacking zone and defensive responsibility in his own end. McBain had his best statistical year this past season, where he posted 13 goals and 14 assists for 27 points in 82 games.
It can be argued that McBain hasn’t had the best oppurtunity to develop, having been thrust into the NHL in 2021 by a poorly constructed Arizona Coyotes team. In 119 games (three seasons) before the Coyotes’ relocation to Utah, McBain potted 22 goals and 33 assists for a combined 55 points.
The young forward still has promise and is positioned to make substantial middle-six contributions as Utah’s third-line center. However, for his role and previous contributions, his current deal will be interesting to monitor for a team that is on the rise and hungry to add more to their roster.