For the first time since winning the J. Ross Robertson Cup Final in 2023, the Peterborough Petes will contest playoff hockey.
And it's been a long(ish) time coming, as the Petes hadn't exactly been competitive in each of the previous two seasons. The Petes ended the 2023-24 season 12 points outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, while the 2024-25 season saw Peterborough finish as the last-place team in the OHL.
Meanwhile, the North Bay Battalion will be looking to return to the conference finals after not only getting there in three consecutive postseasons, a run that spanned the 2022 and 2024 playoffs, but also finishing a game shy of the final round in two of their three trips. The Battalion's 2025 playoffs were a far cry from that run of form, as the team lost their first-round series to the Brantford Bulldogs in five games.
The season series didn't exactly go Peterborough's way, but is there a silver lining?
Of the four games played between the Petes and the Battalion, three of them were won by North Bay. The first and third games each had 5-4 score lines, one of which was an overtime victory, while the second was a 3-1 decision. Peterborough's lone win of the season series was a 4-3 overtime victory on March 15.
In terms of creating chances, that's where things are a little more even; Peterborough and North Bay each won the shot count two times. Only one game saw a team completely dominate the shot count; the other three games in the season series saw the shot count decided by seven chances or fewer.
Both teams do tend to struggle with regard to special teams, though the Petes' silver lining might be found in this regard. Peterborough's power play is only eighth-best in the league while North Bay sits in 10th and right in the middle of the league standings in that category. In terms of the penalty kill, Peterborough is fifth-best in the league while North Bay is only 14th in that regard.
Elsewhere, Peterborough's special teams units tend to operate better when at home; the Petes convert almost 25% of their power play chances at home and kill off over 80% of their penalties, which is good for seventh and sixth-place in the OHL respectively. North Bay's power play on home ice is the eighth-best unit in the OHL but their home penalty kill is only 12th best.
That said, North Bay has the slight special teams advantage in terms of the season series; the Battalion converted three of their power play opportunities compared to Peterborough's two goals scored with the man advantage.
Final prediction: Petes in seven
While North Bay may hold the advantage in terms of head-to-head play and overall goal-scoring/goal-conceding, any statistical advantage held by either the Petes or Battalion is generally marginal. The fact that two of the four games in the season series went to overtime also makes things seem a little closer between the Battalion and Petes.
If anything is going to truly separate these two teams, it's going to be home-ice advantage and their ability to win at home. Peterborough has a total of 29 wins at home this season, while North Bay has just 22 home wins.
This series may be a close one, but it's going to be one decided by the Petes' ability to convert their four home games into wins. Doing that will be more than enough to put Peterborough into the second round.