In life, there are some things that are guaranteed: death, taxes, GTA VI being delayed, and the Connor McDavid-led Edmonton Oilers completing a second-half turnaround.
They did it in 2023-24; following Kris Knoblauch's appointment as the Oilers' head coach, the Oilers closed out the season on a 46-18-5 run (good for 97 points); the resulting 1.41 points-per-game rate would've put Edmonton at around 116 points had that run been translated onto an eighty-two game regular season, which would be twelve points better than their 2023-24 finish.
They also did it in 2024-25; despite being 10-9-2 after the first quarter of the season, Edmonton would finish the season on a 38-20-3 clip (good for 79 points). Given that the points-per-game pace Edmonton was on at that point was equal to 1.30 points-per-game, an eighty-two game season with that same performance would've seen Edmonton finish with around 107 points, slightly better than the 101 point tally Edmonton had for the 2024-25 season.
The good news? Both 2023-24 and 2024-25 ended in Stanley Cup Final berths.
This year, things are seemingly set up for a repeat of roughly the same story. Despite starting 11-11-5, Edmonton earned points in each of their last three games as of December 9th.
But how big of an impact could the Oilers have on the rest of the season, and could they pull off a second-half surge?
The Oilers are currently 2-1-1 to start December and hold a one-point lead on the San Jose Sharks and the Utah Mammoth for the final wild card spot available in the Western Conference. In addition, they have a game in hand on the Sharks while also holding two games in hand on the Mammoth.
For their remaining December schedule, the Oilers are set to embark on a five-game road trip following a December 11th encounter with the Detroit Red Wings. Following that stretch, four of their final six games come against divisional rivals or against teams currently in the wild card race.
A December 21st game with the Vegas Golden Knights, who have a game in hand on Edmonton, could be critical in any late-season top-three push. Then, a home-and-home Battle of Alberta with the Calgary Flames could be critical in the Oilers' playoff positioning. Even when considering a tough opening stretch, Calgary has put up points in the standings in eight of the last eleven games and is just four points back of Edmonton as of December 10th despite playing two additional games.
The final game that features a team that is either in Edmonton's division or in the Western Conference playoff battle sees Edmonton travel to Winnipeg for a December 29th contest against the Jets, who are just three points back of the Oilers.
If Edmonton is able to hold onto a playoff spot throughout December and win the big intra-conference games at the end of the month, we could see a second-half surge that solidifies the team's playoff positioning and ensures that they will be able to contend for a third-consecutive trip to the Stanley Cup Final.