The Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes are gearing up to meet in Round 2 of the NHL playoffs after winning each of their first round matchups in five games, and all signs point to it being an action-packed affair.
In four meetings during the regular season, each team claimed two victories. There's no shortage of hostility between the clubs, either. During the game on April 2 that ended in a 5-1 win for the Hurricanes, a total of eight misconducts were handed out for a combined 142 penalty minutes.
Although the Caps finished first in the Eastern Conference, the Canes are shaping up to be a formidable challenger as the second round is expected to begin early next week. The regular season series, as well as some key statistics from Round 1 of the playoffs, point to the Hurricanes potentially coming out on top.
Strong puck possession
Looking back to the regular season, Carolina had the edge offensively with 14 goals across the four matchups -- four more than Washington. Going deeper than that, though, the Canes were absolutely dominant in terms of possession at 5v5. The team had more shot attempts in every single game, recording an overall Corsi-for of 62.5% per Natural Stat Trick. Across all strengths, the Hurricanes held the advantage in shot attempts by an unbelievable margin of +98.
In the playoffs, that dominance has carried over seamlessly. According to the NHL EDGE player and puck tracking stats, Carolina leads all teams this postseason with 45.1% offensive zone time. The Canes ranked first in that category during the regular season as well with an even-better 47.2%. This is an area that the Capitals are already preparing for, as forward Dylan Strome told reporters after the Game 5 victory.
"Everyone kind of knows how they play. They dump a lot of pucks in and don’t let you have a lot of zone time. We’re going to need to find a way to combat that. "Dylan Strome (via nhl.com)
The Capitals not only struggled head-to-head against the Hurricanes in terms of possession, but also against the Montreal Canadiens in Round 1. With a Corsi-for of 45.2% at 5v5, the Caps allowed more shot attempts than they created. In fact, the Habs finished with 59 more attempts overall.
That being said, the Capitals managed to outscore the Canadiens 11-7 at even strength despite the less-than-favorable possession numbers. Although Montreal managed more shot attempts in general, Washington had better quality opportunities with 68 scoring chances for and 53 against.
Teams don't have to be flawless in order to grind out wins in the playoffs, but consistently being out-skated or giving the opponent plenty of time to set up in the zone just sets the stage for goals against. Washington was able to handle Montreal, but the Hurricanes are inarguably a better team than the Canadiens and it could end up being significantly harder for the Caps to stave off that offense.
Superior special teams
A huge contributing factor to Carolina's first-round victory was the success of special teams. In the five-game series, the New Jersey Devils failed to score on all 15 power play opportunities. Unsurprising, considering the Hurricanes led the NHL with 83.6% on the PK during the regular season.
Meanwhile, six of the Canes' 19 postseason goals have come on the man advantage -- that's a 31.6% success rate on the power play. Granted, Carolina was facing a depleted Devils roster, but still a huge improvement from 18.7% in the regular season.
That spells trouble for the Capitals' penalty kill, which let up five goals in five games during the first round for a rate of 66.7%. That's a complete 180, after Washington finished tied for fourth place with 82.0% on the PK during the regular season.
Of course, Washington is home to a power play specialist in Alex Ovechkin. The Great 8 scored twice on the man advantage in the first round for a career total of 30 PPG in 156 playoff games, which is tied for fifth-most in NHL history. Fittingly, Ovechkin is just eight shy of the all-time record held by Brett Hull (38).
Ovi's prowess was clear against the Hurricanes this year too, chiming in with two PPG and an assist. The Caps' power play as a whole was outstanding against Carolina at 30.8%. Notably, two of the team's four PPG were in a 5-on-3 situation.
The real question: is all of that enough to solve the Hurricanes' penalty kill that has been perfect up to this point? Along with the Canes power play firing on all cylinders, Washington will definitely have to bring more heat than the Devils did if they want a chance at the next round.
Wild Card: Depth scoring
Both the Capitals and Hurricanes have gotten significant contributions from throughout the lineup, and this could be one of the factors that tips the scale in either direction.
All but two skaters for Washington have recorded at least one point so far -- the only outliers being defenseman Alexander Alexeyev, playing just 11:02 per night on average, and center Aliaksei Protas who has only appeared in one game. That's a total of 17 different players on the scoresheet for the Capitals. Even further, five players are scoring at a point-per-game pace so far, including stalwart Tom Wilson.
The Hurricanes have very similar numbers in this regard; 16 skaters have registered a point, including five defensemen. Nine of those players have three or more points. Jordan Martinook is one of those guys, putting Carolina's strong third line on display. That could be a tough matchup for a Capitals third line that plays a far less physical style. Martinook, with 25 hits, has more than the entire Caps' third line combined (21). Being able to win battles like that is crucial in gaining possession and ultimately getting offensive opportunities.
That's not to forget the star players earning their paychecks thus far. Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov have been thriving under the postseason pressure. Aho has scored three goals and five assists, all coming in the final four games of the series. That includes the series-clinching double overtime tally in Game 5.
Svechnikov, after an underwhelming regular season, is finding his groove once again -- his hat trick in Game 4 swung the series momentum heavily in Carolina's favor. With five goals plus one helper, he is providing the type of offense the Canes have come to expect out of him.
The Capitals have been propelled by some strong performances as well, namely Ovechkin and Strome. Ovi helped the Capitals notch the first win of the series with two goals, including the overtime winner in Game 1. He and Strome also combined for a beautiful goal off the faceoff to kick off scoring in Game 5, setting the tone for the eventual elimination of the Habs. Strome, meanwhile, is tied for the fifth in the NHL with nine points.
All that's to say, these clubs are backed by reliable offense from not only their best players, but the workhorses deeper in the lineup.
We all know skaters like Ovechkin and Aho can score, but the bottom six will be relied on to play a huge role on a nightly basis. One thing all Stanley Cup champions have in common is the ability to run four lines and count on all of them individually to provide goals. That trend could end up becoming a deciding factor in the series.
With the commanding puck possession, special teams, and depth scoring we've seen from the Hurricanes so far, the team is poised to be a real threat for the Capitals.