With the preliminary round of the 2026 World Juniors done and dusted, it's time to assess each team's performance thus far outside of what the standings may suggest.
What do I mean by this? My power rankings is intenced to serve as a recap of sorts of the group stage as well as a general sense of where all ten teams stand heading into the knockout round/relegation round.
I'll be updating these power rankings after each round, with eliminated teams being confirmed to their final positioning in the power rankings.
1. Canada
If we were to take anything away from the group stage about this Canadian side, one of those things should be the idea that they look far better than the teams fielded over the past two years.
Say what you will about Hockey Canada leaving some NHL talent behind, but this unit has arguably been Canada's best offensively in years. Sure, this year's roster might not rival that of the 2023 team led by the likes of Connor Bedard, but it's pretty close.
Save for an overtime win against Latvia, Canada has been able to win their group stage games by comfortable margins. Whether it's a blowout win over Denmark or a 7-4 decision against Finland, Canada has proven that they're once again a force to be reckoned with and that they'll continue to do so throughout the knockouts.
That said, a quarterfinal matchup with Slovakia won't necessarily be a cakewalk, especially when considering Slovakia's performance over the course of the group stage. Even then, Canada finds itself in a much better position than in previous tournaments, and that should help push them to a medal game for the first time since 2023.
2. Sweden
Despite their rough start to the tournament, I have to give Sweden credit for getting things on the right track before it was too late.
Before their game against Germany, one could argue that Sweden might have been headed for a quarterfinal exit. But after their group stage games with Germany and the United States, Sweden might be headed for a better tournament result.
Sweden's first two group stage games weren't exactly pretty; their first saw them win despite blowing a two-goal lead to Slovakia, while their second saw them forced to come back down 2-1 at the second intermission.
Their final two group games were much better. The Swedes would look like a significantly better unit in their 8-1 blowout win over Germany before posting a 6-3 win over the United States to secure the top spot in Group A. Not only that, but their win over the United States can easily be seen as their best result of their group stage.
Holding a lead and playing a complete sixty-minute effort will be at the top of Sweden's mind when it comes to their attempt to get back to the medal round. But not only should a quarterfinal matchup with Latvia create some confidence for Sweden, but their newfound ability to become an organized unit capable of winning the big games should be a big X-Factor going forward.
3. Finland
Finland is arguably in the same position as the United States, albeit with a slightly more functional scoring unit.
The Finns started their tournament with plenty of confidence, scoring fourteen goals over their first two group games while conceding just twice. But from that point on, Finland scored just five goals while giving up nine.
Sure, one could argue that the significant drop in production is correlated with the increase in the quality of opponents that Finland played; last I checked, Denmark isn't exactly on the same tier of gold medal contention as Canada and Czechia.
Even then, Latvia has enjoyed some decent form in recent tournaments and Finland performed significantly better against Latvia this time around than last year.
That trend is nonetheless cause for concern. Before playing Finland, Czechia had glaring issues on defence that were exposed throughout their first two group games. But against Finland, Czechia cooked up a defensive masterclass of which the only major flaw was a last-minute Finland goal to send the game to overtime.
And against Canada, Finland's discipline and defensive prowess disappeared faster than their hopes of topping the group.
Even with their struggles in mind, Finland is set to take on an also-struggling American unit in the quarterfinals. A return to form for Finland could easily send the team on a deep knockout run.
4. United States
Despite starting off their tournament strong with a 6-3 win over Germany, the Americans couldn't really regain that confidence over the course of their remaining three group games.
Yes, the Americans ended up with nine points in the standings while winning three games, and one can easily argue that winning games is all that matters.
But how one wins is also important; for the Americans, winning hasn't exactly come as easily as last year. Their second game against Switzerland, despite being a 2-1 victory, saw the Americans come oh so close to being forced to overtime. Against Slovakia, the United States had to erase several deficits to eventually gain the lead in the third period; the Americans trailed by two goals twice in that game.
Their lone loss of the group stage was a 6-3 decision against a Swedish side that has gained a lot of confidence as the group stage went on (more on Sweden above). In that game, the Americans simply looked lost, a rare feeling for a team that had generally dominated their way to two consecutive gold medals.
While the United States will still get the chance to defend their gold and win their third-consecutive tournament, one can argue that the United States should be on upset alert going forward.
5. Czechia
If these power rankings were based on the last three games of Czechia's group stage campaign, I would probably be putting them in fourth or even third.
Unfortunately, I'm compelled to provide a holistic assessment of Czechia's performance in the group stage, which falls closer to fifth.
The problem for Czechia wasn't their offence, which has produced eighteen goals through four games. It's been primarily their defence, which took a little bit of time to get going. In their first game against Canada, Czechia gave up seven goals, which was more than double the amount the Czechs had given up on average in each of the previous four matchups with the Canadians. However, Czechia gave up just five goals over their final three group games; the Czechs gave up two goals against Denmark and Latvia, while conceding just once against Finland.
Czechia will enter the knockouts on a little bit of a roll, however they're not entering in as good of a position as initially projected. Even then, Czechia will be in a good position to make it to the semifinals for the fifth-consecutive tournament. And considering their relative improvement over the course of the group stage, Czechia could still act as this tournament's dark horse.
6. Switzerland
Initially, I was going to give this spot to Slovakia, who had impressed over the course of their first three round-robin games at the World Juniors.
But Slovakia's loss to Switzerland did raise some red flags; as a result, I'm going to have to give this spot to Switzerland, who also impressed over the course of the group stage.
Despite being projected by many to finish in and around the relegation round, Switzerland would end up enjoying a pretty decent group stage. While they would lose their first two tournament games, each of those losses would be by less than two goals; the Swiss opened their tournament with a 2-1 loss to the United States before losing their second game to Sweden by a score of 4-2. Switzerland's shutout win over Germany was an impressive bounceback, while their 3-2 win over Slovakia could arguably be seen as their signature performance at the tournament thus far.
As a result of their two-game win streak, Switzerland will finish the group stage with a third-place finish in Group A and with six points in the group standings. The Swiss will also enter their quarterfinal matchup with plenty of confidence and momentum.
7. Slovakia
As much as I had to give Slovakia's place in the power rankings to Switzerland, Slovakia did enjoy a relatively-impressive group stage performance.
While their lone win would come in their second group-stage game against Germany, Slovakia's losses were by close margins. In their first loss, Slovakia would reverse a two-goal deficit against Sweden to tie the game 2-2 midway through the third, however a late goal would give the Swedes enough to win the game in regulation. Against the United States, Slovakia held several multi-goal leads, however a strong third period would help to push the Americans over the top by a final score of 6-5. And despite trailing 3-0 against Switzerland on New Year's Eve, Slovakia would come close to reversing a 3-0 deficit, scoring their second goal with just under a minute to play.
Even then, their loss to Switzerland is a momentum-killer of sorts; despite having the chance to avoid the first-place team in Group B, their loss will ensure that they play a group winner in the quarterfinal. Whether Slovakia regains their confidence before that game or not is a question for Friday.
8. Latvia
Was 2026 a step up for Latvia? Not really. Was 2026 a step back for Latvia? Not really.
In considering Latvia's performance in the group stage of the 2026 World Juniors, consisting of a 2-1 overtime loss to Canada, an 8-0 loss to Finland, a 6-3 win over Denmark, and a 4-2 loss to Czechia, one could argue that Latvia took a slight step back in comparison to last year's group stage (Latvia's largest group stage loss in 2025 was a 5-1 decision against the United States, while their biggest loss this year was an 8-0 decision against Finland).
At the same time, one could argue that Latvia's overall performance remained constant (both this year and last year's entries scored four points in the standings).
I will say that Latvia's goaltending performance did dip slightly given that Latvia brought a whole new roster of goaltenders. However, the effort has remained constant from one year to another, and that should be noted for any assessment of Latvia's performance at this tournament.
Their quarterfinal assignment will be a tough one; Sweden is heading into the quarterfinals as one of the top-two teams in the tournament. However, considering Latvia's net performance in the group stage and the fact that Latvia came close to upsetting Sweden in last year's knockout stage, I don't think that Latvia will be losing their quarterfinal game by that much if at all.
9. Germany
While Germany wasn't exactly the most disappointing team at this tournament, they aren't that far off.
Granted, Germany's attack has shown some potential and it was able to put together a multi-goal performance against the United States. The main issue for Germany has been an inability to convert chances into goals; with five goals scored throughout the group stage, Germany is the lowest-scoring team of the ten countries at the World Juniors. Had Germany scored even a few addition goals against the likes of Slovakia, we could have seen a significantly different group stage result.
While Germany did endure a tough group stage performance, there is enough evidence for me to give them the slight edge over Denmark in my post-group stage power rankings. In addition, they should enter their relegation round encounter with Denmark as the favourite to remain in the top division heading into the 2027 World Juniors.
10. Denmark
Despite being last in my power rankings, Denmark did have some decent stretches in the group stage, including their relatively strong first period performances against Latvia and Czechia.
But even with those positive performances in mind, Denmark has generally been the worst-performing team of the ten nations at the World Juniors. Through their four group games, they've given up the most goals of any nation (28), while scoring the second-fewest (8).
Denmark will look to cap off their performance at the World Juniors when they take on Germany in the relegation round. While survival isn't exactly a guarantee, I do think Denmark can make life hard for Germany in the relegation round.