2014-15 NHL season preview: Washington Capitals
This 2014-15 NHL season preview features the Washington Capitals.
What was Stanley Cup worthy in 2013-14?
Much like the year before, the Capitals had the league’s top ranked powerplay unit last season (tied with Pittsburgh), converting 23.4% of their chances. Unlike the year before, the Caps’ penalty kill wasn’t absolutely dreadful, finishing in the middle of the pack at 82%.
The powerplay was led once again by Alex Ovechkin, who scored 8 more goals with the man advantage than anyone else in the league (24). His 51 goals overall were also a league high, the fifth time in his career he’s won the Rocket Richard Trophy as the NHL’s top goal scorer. He also registered his fifth career 50-goal season. The only other active players who have more than one are Jaromir Jagr (3), Dany Heatley (2), Steven Stamkos (2) and Jarome Iginla (2).
Ovie’s usual centre for the past several seasons, Nicklas Backstrom, led the Capitals in assists for the fifth time in his seven seasons with Washington. He also led the NHL with 44 points on the powerplay, 38 of those being assists. He’s one of the league’s top set-up men and one of its most consistent point producers.
Washington got some pretty good secondary offense from a pair of “grinders” in Joel Ward and Troy Brouwer.
Known more for his hard-to-play-against style and penalty killing ability, Ward set a career-high with 24 goals last season, good for third on the team. He also made the most of his opportunities with an 18% shooting percentage, which led the team as did his +7 rating.
Brouwer has always been an excellent role player who, since his days in Chicago playing Toews, Kane and company, has shown an ability to play with skilled players. His 25 goals, a personal best, placed him only behind Ovechkin on the team while his 43 points were a career-high as well.
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What was draft lottery worthy in 2013-14?
While they’ve never been known for their air-tight defense, the Washington Capitals allowed 33.5 shots per game last season. Only Buffalo, Ottawa and Toronto allowed more.
For the second time in six seasons, the Capitals were not a top 5 team in terms of goals scored. They finished 13th in the NHL with 2.74 goals-per-game, a fairly dramatic drop-off from the 3.04 they managed in 2012-13. They were also a disappointing 23rd in the NHL in 5-on-5 scoring finishing with a 0.90 ratio.
The 5-on-5 woes are evident simply by looking at the team’s +/- numbers. Alex Ovechkin finished with a -35 despite scoring 51 goals; only Steve Ott (-38) and Alex Edler (-39) were worse. Marcus Johansson (-21), Nicklas Backstrom (-20) and Mike Green (-16) all joined Ovie in the negative double figures club.
It likely would have helped if Martin Erat showed up once in a while. The Czech winger played 53 games in Washington where he managed a single goal on just 46 shots (2.2%). With a 12.4% career shooting percentage and 49 or more points eight times in his career, Erat should have provided the kind of second line scoring the Capitals ultimately got from Ward and Brouwer.
Granted Brooks Laich was heavily relied on in a defensive and penalty killing role last season, but his offense disappeared. Despite playing over 17 minutes per game, his 15 points in 51 games represented his worst output since his second full season in 2006-07 (18 points in 73 games).
Now entering his third full NHL season, Dmitry Orlov needs to prove he can be a regular NHL defenseman. While he had stretches of very good play last year, including a two-goal game in March and a four-game span in April where he went +6 with two points, the highly touted defenseman needs to give Washington more than the 11 points and -1 he managed in just over 19 minutes per game.
So what did they do to get better?
The Caps need to tighten up a very loose defensive game if they have any chance of winning within the window they have with the current core.
That’s a big reason why their new head coach is Barry Trotz. Known for maximizing his assets and playing a very sound defensive game, Trotz teams are always tough to play against. This will be the most talented group of players Trotz has ever had in the NHL, so it’ll be very interesting to see what he can do with it.
Washington’s defensive woes are also a big reason why they spent a combined 11.25 million per season to bring in defensemen Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen from the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Orpik is one of the NHL’s most fearsome hitters. His 221 hits in 72 games was second on the Pens last year and 18th overall in the NHL. He also had 146 shot blocks. He’s been a key shutdown defenseman for Pittsburgh and Washington hopes he’ll bring much of the same to their blue line, however health is a concern: he’s never played all 82 games in a season in his 11-year career.
Niskanen had a career year with the Penguins, scoring 10 goals and 46 points in just over 21 minutes per game. He also did a nice job anchoring the Pens’ powerplay while Kris Letang was out of the lineup, leading all Pittsburgh defensemen with 15 points with the man advantage. He should be able to do a similar job for the Capitals, considering they have similar firepower up front.
Player to watch
A big reason Washington didn’t feel the need to replace Mikhail Grabovski this off-season is 21 year-old Evgeny Kuznetsov.
After being drafted 26th overall by the Capitals in 2010, Kuznetsov made his long-awaited debut in Washington towards the end of the season, scoring nine points in his 17 games.
In his last three KHL seasons, he’s scored 105 points in 131 points and has displayed some electrifying skill and a surprisingly mature two-way game.
If he lands the top-line left wing spot next to Ovechkin and Backstrom, he could put up one of the highest point totals for a rookie since Evgeni Malkin’s 85 points in 2006-07. Regardless of his linemates however, expect him to be a Calder Trophy favorite and put up at least 55-60 points.
"They have all the ingredients to … finally make a serious run when it matters most."
They will make the playoffs if…
The defense is as improved on the ice as it is on paper.
They will miss the playoffs if…
Ovechkin and Backstrom don’t let Barry Trotz coach this team.
What should we expect this season?
The Capitals have all the pieces in place (again) to contend this season.
They have a seasoned coach who knows how to get the most out of his players. They have a goaltender in Braden Holtby who, while young, has shown before he can win in the playoffs. They have tons of skill up front. They have experience and versatility at the back-end with Orpik, Niskanen, John Carlson, Karl Alzner, Orlov and Green.
The only thing preventing this Capitals team from being one of the top clubs in the NHL is really, the Capitals. They have all the ingredients to not only challenge for the top spot in the regular season, but finally make a serious run when it matters most.
Prediction
48-22-12 108 points, 2nd in the Metropolitan Division, 2nd in the Eastern Conference