Stanley Cup Playoffs: First Round Preview And Winners

Apr 11, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; New York Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist (30) celebrates with teammates after their game against the Washington Capitals at Verizon Center. The Rangers won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The NHL season has ended and the Stanley Cup playoffs are finally here after nearly six months of regular season hockey.  There are great stories about teams like the Minnesota Wild and Ottawa Senators making second half charges to the Stanley Cup playoffs.  Teams like the Calgary Flames that beat injuries and a deep Western Conference to take a spot away from the defending Stanley Cup champions.

Individual stories are there too with great goaltending from Carey Price and Devan Dubnyk.  Alex Ovechkin passing the fifty goal mark again, possibly winning another Hart Memorial Trophy.  The fantastic closing run of the Presidents Trophy winning New York Rangers.  And the birth of “the Hamburglar”.

Pucks and Pitchforks

When you look at the opening round bracket there are several series that could end up going six or seven games.  With five teams in the Stanley Cup playoffs, Canada has their best chance to reclaim the Cup since the Montreal Canadiens back in 1993.  Unfortunately four of those teams will meet in the first round so those hopes will take a hit quickly.

The most exciting part of the Stanley Cup playoffs first round are the upsets.  The Los Angeles Kings have won the Stanley Cup as an eight seed.  The Edmonton Oilers, hard as it is to believe, represented the Western Conference as the eight seed as well when the Carolina Hurricanes won their Cup.  In no other sport does the lower-seeded team have as much opportunity to win in the playoffs than in hockey.  It’s the true beauty of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

When the first round handshake lines are done, which teams are moving on and which teams are setting tee times?  I will look at some stats to back up my thoughts, but I’ve also watched a number of games from the playoff teams.  There are some things that don’t show up on the stat sheets.

Follow along with me as I pick all eight of the opening round series.  While I expect to get all eight correct, it wouldn’t shock me if I got many of these wrong.  I think most of the series are that close.  Most of them – there is one team I expect to get blown off the ice.  And it isn’t the first team you thought of.

With that in mind, let’s take a trip through the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs!  I’m looking forward to reading your thoughts on these as well.

Next: Are Top Seeds Threatened?

Anaheim Ducks vs. Winnipeg Jets

Jan 11, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Winnipeg Jets center Mark Scheifele (55) attempts to handle the puck after a save by Anaheim Ducks goalie Frederik Andersen (31) during the third period at Honda Center. The Anaheim Ducks won 5-4 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Both the Anaheim Ducks and Winnipeg Jets are big, physical teams that like to grind opponents down.  Sometimes they aren’t doing so legally:  these are two of the top six most penalized teams in the NHL.  The Ducks took an average of 10.82 penalty minutes per game, outdone by the Jets taking 13.02 minutes per game, only behind the Pittsburgh Penguins.

These minutes are going to put tremendous pressure on the defensemen and goaltenders in this series.  Anaheim brought in James Wisniewski and Simon Despres to improve their back-end at the trade deadline.  Add to that Hampus Lindholm and Francois Beauchemin and the top four are as good as any in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

The Winnipeg Jets also brought in a different type of defensemen, trading Zach Bogosian to the Buffalo Sabres for Tyler Myers.  Myers is known more as a skilled puck mover and skater than being physical, which is something to keep an eye on in the series.  Dustin Byfuglien may be the most physical player in the series, while Mark Stuart and Jacob Trouba have filled out the top four nicely while Toby Enstrom has battled injuries.  Enstrom has only played sixty games this season and needs to stay healthy to give the Jets depth to compete in this series.

Behind the defense are goaltending questions on both sides.  Ondrej Pavelec has been the hottest player in the league in the last two weeks and hasn’t been beaten in his last three starts.  Meanwhile Fredrick Andersen has wrestled the starting job from John Gibson and is ready to prove his playoff ability.  If he falters, will Bruce Boudreau have a quick trigger going to his backup?  You don’t want to shake a young goaltenders confidence.  At the same time, you need to win four games before your opponent does.

Winnipeg had the better power play and penalty killing units all season.  If these teams wind up forming a parade to the penalty box, the advantage goes to Winnipeg.  I expect the Ducks to stay the more disciplined team and find a way to come through this series.  But the Jets will get their pound of feathers from the Ducks.  The Anaheim Ducks will beat the Winnipeg Jets in six games.

 New York Rangers vs.  Pittsburgh Penguins

Jan 18, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby (87) and New York Rangers center Derek Stepan (21) battle for position during the third period at the CONSOL Energy Center. The Rangers won 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Talk about two teams with different confidence levels.  The New York Rangers are the out-of-control freight train smashing everything they run in to.  They have speed at forward let by Martin St. Louis and Chris Kreider, great depth on defense with Mark Staal, Dan Boyle and Ryan McDonagh.  And if you get through all of those players, have fun with Henrik Lundqvist in the crease.  The Presidents Trophy winners are ready to get back to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Standing in their way are the Pittsburgh Penguins, whom limped to the finish line.  The Penguins got into the Stanley Cup playoffs only after beating the Buffalo Sabres in the last game of the season.  Any team with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin should be competitive, but there are serious issues with the Penguins.

Beyond Crosby and Malkin, the teams next best scorer is Kris Letang whom will miss the playoffs with a concussion.  Patric Hornqvist and Chris Kunitz are the only other Penguins with over 40 points this season.  There are not enough forwards stepping up on offense, so Crosby and Malkin will see the very best of the Rangers defense.

If the Penguins want to be competitive in this series, Marc-Andre Fleury will need to play better than he has in his life.  His .920 save percentage and 9 shutouts behind a team that took the most penalties in the league and fought injuries all the way back to the mumps shows how good a season he really had.

It will all go for nothing.  I won’t be surprised if this series ends in a sweep, but I’ll give Crosby, Malkin and Fleury one win at home.  There are big problems with the depth on this Penguins team and in a few weeks they will have all offseason to consider addressing it.  The New York Rangers manhandle the Pittsburgh Penguins in five games.  And it isn’t that close.

Next: Time For Some Upsets!

 Montreal Canadiens vs  Ottawa Senators

Mar 12, 2015; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Ottawa Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson (65) scores a goal against Montreal Canadiens goalie Carey Price (31) during the third period at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

This series could swing on the return of Max Pacioretty, who has skated on his own but still isn’t cleared to play.  Without Pacioretty, Carey Price may be asked to score goals too. Price was the best in the world at stopping them this season but his offense needs to pick up the pace.  Montreal is tied for the lowest scoring playoff team in the East with Pittsburgh and that doesn’t include the loss of Pacioretty.

Price will need to withstand a balanced Ottawa attack led by Erik Karlsson and Kyle Turris.  Bobby Ryan is still a major threat despite only scoring 18 goals this year.  Most of that slack was picked up by Mark Stone, who seemed to score every big goal the Senators needed which chasing a Stanley Cup playoff berth.

Ottawa is statistically the better team in several categories according to war-on-ice.com and they have plenty of momentum heading into this series.  Andrew Hammond has lost one regulation game this season and, if he continues to play well, the Senators can shock Canada and knock out the Habs.

I expect Carey Price to steal a game, maybe two.  He’s been that good and there’s no reason to expect a drop in his play.  But his teammates are not doing enough to pick him up.  P.K. Subban will need to have the series of his life to push the Canadiens through.  I don’t see it happening.  The Ottawa Senators are going to upset the Montreal Canadiens, winning game seven on the road to do it.

 St. Louis Blues vs  Minnesota Wild

Oct 4, 2014; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Minnesota Wild forward Jason Pominville (29) and St. Louis Blues defenseman Jay Bouwmeester (19) battle in front of the Blues net during the third period at Xcel Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Marilyn Indahl-USA TODAY Sports The Wild defeat the Blues 5-4 in overtime.

It’s not the playoffs until the St. Louis Blues have a goaltending issue.  Brian Elliott has been the starter for most of the year yet Jake Allen has made the choice more difficult.  Their season numbers are almost the same so head coach Ken Hitchcock should just pick one and ride him.  Will a confrontation between Hitchcock and Elliott slant the coach toward Allen?

The Wild have no such goaltending issues.  Devan Dubnyk should be getting consideration for the Vezina and Hart Trophies the way he’s played.  There is little question the Minnesota Wild wouldn’t be in the Stanley Cup playoffs if not for his efforts.

Even with the goalie questions in St. Louis, expect a bunch of tight games and overtime between these teams.  Both are outstanding defensively and among the top ten in the league 5-on-5.  This series is going to come down to special teams and who can take advantage.  The fourth best power play in St. Louis will try to crack the best penalty killers in the NHL in Minnesota.  On the flip side, the Blues fourth best penalty kill doesn’t face as tough a test with the Wild’s 27th ranked power play.

The St. Louis Blues have struggled in the playoffs despite big regular season success.  The Blues are going to get all they can handle with the Wild.  In the end I expect the Blues special teams to find enough cracks in Dubnyk to advance to the second round.  This will be the playoff coming out party for Vladimir Tarasenko as the St. Louis Blues advance over the Minnesota Wild in six games.

Next: Western Conference Favorite Draws Bad Matchup

Nashville Predators vs. Chicago Blackhawks

Dec 29, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Blackhawks center Jonathan Toews (19) scores a goal against Nashville Predators goalie Pekka Rinne (35) during the shootout at the United Center. The Chicago Blackhawks defeat the Nashville Predators 5-4 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Both of these teams really limped down the stretch.  Nashville lost their last three games while the Blackhawks dropped their last four.  Two of the top four teams 5-on-5, the Predators and Blackhawks would like to stay out of the box as both have struggled on the power play all season.

This is another series I expect to be low scoring, despite the offensive talent on both sides.  Corey Crawford led Chicago to a tie with Montreal for the fewest goals allowed, while Pekka Rinne continues to be élite for Nashville.  While both defenses are solid, the series will be decided up front.

Nashville is led by Filip Forsberg, surely one of the finalists for the Calder Trophy.  But beyond Forsberg and Mike Ribiero, the Nashville wingers have struggled to find the back of the net this year.  Heading into the Stanley Cup playoffs the leading goal scorer on either wing for Nashville is James Neal with 23.  No other Predators winger has more than eight.

The Blackhawks certainly have the depth to key in on Nashville’s best players.  Jonathan Toews is an élite two-way forward and defencemen Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith have experience taking playoff ice away from the opponents best forwards.

Early in the season I expected Nashville to come through the Stanley Cup playoffs and represent the West in the Finals.  That is still possible, but drawing the Blackhawks to start is a terrible matchup.  Even without Patrick Kane, the Chicago Blackhawks will defeat the Nashville Predators in six games.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings

Mar 20, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Brian Boyle (11) defends Detroit Red Wings left wing Teemu Pulkkinen (56) during the first period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Twenty-four years and counting in the Stanley Cup playoffs for the Detroit Red Wings.  Many of those runs have gone deep into the Stanley Cup playoffs, with a few ending in championships.  Why would this year be any different?  Would you bet against Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg?

It would help Detroit if they could figure out who their starting goaltender will be.  Jimmy Howard is experienced but neither he nor Petr Mrazek have done a lot to claim the job.  Howard should get the nod, but Mike Babcock will have a Keenan-like hook should he struggle.

If you’re having goalie issues heading into the Stanley Cup playoffs, the Tampa Bay Lightning are not the team you want to see.  The highest scoring team in the league, Steven Stamoks and company are licking their chops at the Red Wings goalie struggles.  Not so fast though:  these teams are 1-2 in the league in Corsi against this year.  Will this series be more defensive than I think?

The main threat to the Lightning starting the Stanley Cup playoffs is injuries.  Having Victor Hedman is a must.  Getting back Jason Garrison and Brayden Coburn are also important.  Losing three defensemen can be the difference between making the Stanley Cup playoffs and winning it all.

While the Red Wings are still potent and young players like Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist have the future in excellent hands, the present doesn’t look good for a long Stanley Cup playoffs run.  Tampa Bay has been one of the best teams all season and I expect the Lightning to prove that again in this series.  The Lightning knock out the Red Wings in six games.

Next: Intriguing East Matchup And Battle For Western Canada