Chicago Blackhawks: Brandon Saad, Restricted Free Agency

Success comes with a price, and no team is more familiar with this than the Chicago Blackhawks. They are on the cusp of their third Stanley Cup Finals appearance in the last six seasons, a run that is only rivaled by the Los Angeles Kings over that period. The fun part is now, but the tough questions will come later as they gear up for another off-season of salary crunching and roster overhaul. And while stars Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Duncan Keith are locked up for the long-term, the Blackhawks will have a tough decision to make on restricted free agent Brandon Saad in just a few weeks.

Saad, the 43rd pick in the 2011 draft, is widely regarded as a burgeoning star in the league. At just 22 years old, he tallied 23 goals and 29 assists in his third full season this past year and is built for this “new” NHL: he’s big, skilled and has plenty of speed to boot. He’s the type of player that you sign long-term and sleep well knowing he’s on your team for the foreseeable future.

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However, as many hockey fans know, the Blackhawks are in something we like to call “cap hell” next season. They currently have over $64 million committed to players, which doesn’t sound terrible with a projected cap ceiling of $71 million. Well, except that $64 million only encompasses 14 players (eight forwards, four defensemen, two goalies), and the last I checked you need roughly 20 just to field a full lineup on a nightly basis. So yes, things could get tricky in the Windy City, especially if another team does the unthinkable: sign Brandon Saad to an offer sheet.

Ah, restricted free agency and the “taboo” offer sheet. Despite the plethora of quality players who have hit the restricted free agency market, there have been only eight offer sheets signed in the past decade, and in only one of those cases was the offer sheet not matched by the player’s current team (Dustin Penner in 2007 who signed an offer sheet with the Edmonton Oilers that the Ducks chose not to match and instead took the first, second, and third round pick for Penner as compensation.) I imagine general managers who employ the offer sheet tactic are looked down upon like animal abusers are in prison.

So, should the Blackhawks fear Brandon Saad signing an offer sheet elsewhere? It only takes one general manager feeling the pressure to win to offer a contract to him that could cripple the Blackhawks salary cap even further. In fact, the Blackhawks may very well face a situation similar to what happened in 2010 when the San Jose Sharks signed defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson to an offer sheet which was promptly matched. The two teams had just faced each other in the playoffs so don’t think for one second there wasn’t some serious gamesmanship going on by the Sharks here: sign a rival’s restricted free agent and either obtain a quality player or force their hand to match and handcuff them with a contract they were hoping to avoid.

Would a team like the Nashville Predators (with over $30 million in cap space), the New Jersey Devils (desperate for offense), Calgary Flames (the most recent team to sign a restricted free agent to an offer sheet), or even the Buffalo Sabres (completely overhauling the team) look at Brandon Saad as a potential core component for the long-term and offer a contract for seven years and maybe $35 million total? Who knows, but if you plan on breaking the bank for a restricted free agent, Saad is the kind of player you go broke for.

While general managers don’t want to upset the salary structure and set precedence by overpaying for a restricted free agent, there are enough teams out there that could use Brandon Saad’s services and if the compensation for it is only a first and third round draft pick next year, that’s a reasonable amount to give up in order to acquire him (compensation increases as the annual salary increases.) General managers need to focus more on improving their organization and worry less about appearances or upsetting some of their brethren.

However, all of this is moot if the Blackhawks decide that no matter what, Saad is a key part of their future and will be retained at all costs, even if it means jettisoning quality players elsewhere. The Blackhawks have a few players that are candidates to be moved because of their contracts: Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Corey Crawford, and Bryan Bickell all carry hefty cap figures that just aren’t justifiable to retain from Chicago’s viewpoint. The Blackhawks were in a similar situation last summer and were forced to trade defenseman Nick Leddy prior to the season to the New York Islanders for a pu pu platter of fringe players and prospects. That may be the best they can hope for again this summer when shedding salaries as they trade from a known position of weakness.

But, a core of Toews, Kane, Keith, Brent Seabrook (they’d be foolish to trade him), and Saad is as good as it gets in the NHL. The Blackhawks know this. More importantly, the rest of the NHL knows this too and while it’s always a good thing to improve your team, improving your team and dealing a significant blow to someone else is even better.

All eyes will be on Chicago this summer as they move forward with what will likely be an overhauled roster. Whether that roster includes Brandon Saad, time will tell.

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