Stamkos unlikely to sign extension
By Ryan Ritchie
The Tampa Bay Lightning’s Steven Stamkos is unlikely to sign an extension. Or at least that should be the attitude held by GM Steve Yzerman. Let me explain why in this very rare instance, it makes more sense to trade your superstar forward.
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I imagine this could be a touchy topic as the Lightning could realistically go either way with Steven Stamkos. Typically, what makes the most sense is locking down franchise players who constantly push for the Art Ross and Maurice Rocket Richard trophies. The truth is this, if a team wants to lock a player down, they can do it, no matter how expensive the price tag.
The CBA says a team can pay one player no more than 20% of the salary cap. In 15-16, the cap is sitting at 74.25 mil. The max a player could earn this season would be 14.25mil/yr. With Stamkos due for a raise in the summer of 2016, it’s conceivable that the max number a player could earn will be north of 15mil/yr.
Now I know leagues such as the NBA are known for paying out max salaries, but it doesn’t happen in the NHL. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews both carry hefty 10.5 mil cap hits. Guys like Crosby and Malkin extended in the past few years and sit in the 8.7-9.5 mil range. Salaries tend to get more lucrative as the cap raises, especially for the superstars in the league.
May 20, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos (91) skates with the puck prior to game three of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the New York Rangers at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
You’d have to imagine Stamkos would earn at least 10mil/yr at the bare minimum. He’s got an idea what teams would pay out on the open market, and players don’t usually take big hometown discounts (very minimal discounts). I’m willing to bet teams like Toronto and Montreal would throw near max money at him if he hit free agency.
Why the Lightning can’t afford to pay their star?
Well GM Steve Yzerman has drafted so well that he’s got a wealth of talent that’s already budded, and will be soon be budding stars in the NHL. The simple truth is, to keep Stamkos, the Lightning would have to be extremely active moving young players and veteran contracts.
We just don’t see GM’s do a flurry of activity like that. We somewhat saw it with the Blackhawks, but they watched a lot of quality guys depart. Teams will learn from others mistakes.
You have to weigh the situation logically. Do I keep my franchise star and make my job extra difficult, or do I get something good for my star and save the money to pay my other young guys.
Learning from history
This modern NHL is still very new when you compare it on the scale of NHL history. There’s only one team that has done what the Lightning have so far, and that’s the Chicago Blackhawks.
There’s a wise saying out there; “those who do not learn from history, are destined to repeat it”. Not that the Blackhawks have made too many mistakes blossoming into a modern day dynasty. But the process has been anything but simple constantly juggling the lineup year after year.
Going back, you’d probably do it all the same in Chicago. Your core group of Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Hossa and Hjalmarsson won you a Stanley Cup in 2010. You lock down those type of guys long-term, it’s just logic.
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The list of departures:
from the 2015 Cup Winning team are as follows:
Brandon Saad, Patrick Sharp, Michal Rozsival, Johnny Oduya, Antoine Vermette, Kimmo Timonen, Kyle Cumiskey
from the 2013 Cup Winning team are as follows:
Michael Frolik, Dave Bolland, Viktor Stalberg
from the 2010 Cup Winning team are as follows:
Dustin Byfuglien, Kris Versteeg, Brent Sopel, Andrew Ladd, Brian Campbell
other notable departures:
Nick Leddy, Antti Niemi, Troy Brouwer, Jimmy Hayes, Brandon Pirri
Now that’s a ton of talent and quality that had to be let go. To be fair, Chicago Blackhawks management has done an outstanding job filling holes in this swirling carousel of roster changes year after year, so give them credit.
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What’s the difference in Tampa Bay?
You haven’t yet won a Stanley Cup, just a finals appearance. It wouldn’t make sense to start locking your core down (Stamkos, Johnson, Palat, Kucherov, Drouin, Hedman, etc).
Do you really want to risk putting yourself in a Hawks type situation with a team that may or may not be able to win the Cup. Better yet, look at the list of departures from above, and start drawing your comparable players on this current Lightning roster as to who will inevitably be lost.
You need flexibility with the cap. It doesn’t mean you can’t lock down a core group of guys. But why pay 10mil+ to one player when you already have a quality first line in Palat – Johnson – Kucherov? Those 3 guys, plus Stamkos and maybe even Drouin sometime soon will all be seeking 1st line minutes and money.
Let’s not forget you need to extend Victor Hedman in the next couple years. Not to mention the big money that’ll be invested in goal whether they choose Bishop or Vasilevskiy as their goalie for the future.
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Leaving enough cap space and room for youth
Stamkos is just the first of many guys looking for massive pay raises. In the coming years, the Palat – Johnson – Kucherov line needs to get paid. By the time Drouin needs a new contract, he’ll probably have done enough to warrant a good pay raise.
Hedman will likely be paid somewhere in the Subban range. I imagine Alex Killorn, J.T Brown, and Vladislav Namestnikov will all be looking for slight raises. Let’s not forget the prospects/youth who could be big pieces moving forward. Brayden Point, Anthony DeAngelo, Slater Koekkoek, Nikita Nesterov, Adam Erne, the list goes on.
Jun 6, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) celebrates with center Tyler Johnson (9) and left wing Ondrej Palat (18) after scoring a goal against the Chicago Blackhawks in the second period in game two of the 2015 Stanley Cup Final at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
When you crunch the numbers on paper, one thing sticks out at you. A constant 10-15 mil over what should be the projected cap for the next 3 or 4 years (that’s including a Stamkos extension). Without Steven, you only come under the cap one of those four years.
So you have to ask yourself. Do you keep Stamkos and find a way to trim tons of salary every year like Chicago? Or do you get premium value for your superstar, that way you only have to make small tweaks and adjustments that don’t affect the team’s chemistry.
One thing is for sure, we should see a decision before the season starts. It might be a smaller hockey market, but that’s a distraction GM Steve Yzerman will not let happen.
Realistically, the odds are Stamkos is extended. But I beg to ask the question, is that the right move for this franchise moving forward?