Chicago Blackhawks F Jonathan Toews – Project Helium “Regulated Plus/Minus”
In the last article, I introduced a formula called Regulated Plus/Minus. As I am sure you were aware when I was writing it, I am now going to use those formulas to evaluate a players value (link below will show you the formula).
Introduction to Regulated Plus/Minus
However, there is a catch to all of this. Since the NHL uses a formula in its plus/minus formula that involves all goals scored when a player is on the ice, not just what the actual player does, I am going to change things up for this article. To show an actual players plus/minus worth, I think it would be unfair to punish him if he loses numerical value if a teammate misses an empty net (just an example).
Here we go: Let’s look at the case of Chicago Blackhawks F Jonathan Toews. For this study, I will use statistics from the 2014-15 season. Let’s get things started with Toews:
His official statistics: 28 G, 38 A, 2 SHG, +30
Keep in mind one thing when looking at these statistics, that his official plus/minus includes goals scored by line mates. Now, we will use my formula, with mostly artificial statistics. Keep one thing in mind, I said in the last article that this formula is in flux.
While the actual value hasn’t changed, I decided to count individual mistakes against players that lead to goals (I alluded to this is the introduction article). They can be turnovers (failed easy clears as well), losing an edge that leads to a breakout, and mistakes that involve failing to clear pucks that a player should from around the net.
Here are Toews’ goal totals (most of which are artificial):
- Goals scored even strength-28 (actual goal count)
- Goals scored against due to a mistake at even strength-9*
- Goals scored on the power play-3*
- Goals scored against on the penalty kill due to a mistake-2*
- Shorthanded goals scored-1*
- Empty net goals/misses-2*
(asterisk indicates artificial statistic)
So, let’s start out by adding up the formula. To start, A-B is very simple. 28-9 equals 21, but things will get much more complicated after that. I am going to give Toews values on C-F randomly, with no basis in real life.
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For “C”, he scored three goals. I am going to say Toews scored two of the three goals on 5 on 4 advantages, and one 5 on 3 advantage. I will use the variables “ca” and “cc” for the one-man advantage. Now, I will move to the two-man edge. For that variable, I will use “ce”. Later I the article, I will add all of the variables up.
Now, I am going to move on to letter “D”. Since Toews cost his team two goals, I am going to give him the variable “da” twice. I want to see what happens if I have him on the ice for his first shift on the man disadvantage.
Moving on to letter “E”, I have Chicago Blackhawks F Jonathan Toews scoring one shorthanded goal for the entire season. Since it is very hard to score a goal down two men, it would be most appropriate to have him score down a man. He will score on his second shift, which will be variable “eb”.
Da Windy City
The final letter is letter “F”, which will involve both addition and subtraction when it comes to figuring out the math of it. I realize that I have Toews down for two empty net goals/misses, but keep in mind that it doesn’t have to be equal. Not to mention the formula views goals scored in the positive territory and misses in the negative, which is the only negative value in the entire formula.
I am going to try something, and that is to have Toews miss the net on both occasions this time. I am going to use variables “fff” and “fjj” just to see how this works. Just one point: I realize that I am not giving you the actual numbers, so if you want to figure it out go back to the introduction article.
Now that the formula has been completed, it is time to add it up. It totals up to +23.336, giving Chicago Blackhawks F Jonathan Toews a positive RPM. Given this is mostly artificial, therefore take this with a grain of salt. I realize the fact that his actual Plus/Minus (NHL version) is much higher, but there are many more chances for goals both ways.
If a player is on a line that scores a lot of goals, he could have a high Plus/Minus. Meanwhile, the RPM formula is a bit more in-depth when evaluating individual players. Since a player can be punished for mistakes that lead to goals, it hurts his RPM a lot. An individual player will make mistakes more than he will be able to make up for it, at least to the level that the NHL sees.
It is unlikely that this formula sees many +30-+40 RPM values.
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To conclude the first artificial study, I think there may need to be some adjusting to the formula long-term. I am going to do several of these studies, using different positions and player types. I think that RPM is off to a good start, even though there is no actual way to test it. I might be able to do my first adjustments after I see how all positions score on it.
Next: Chicago's Kane-Panarin-Anisimov Line Dominating NHL
So, in other words this is a work in progress. There will be more soon, so stay tuned.
Source: www.espn.com