Boston Bruins C Patrice Bergeron: Project Helium – Regulated Plus/Minus Comparison
Now that I wrote a Regulated Plus/Minus article that involves artificial statistics, I thought it would be a good idea to compare the data I found. For those of you who didn’t read the first article, I used Chicago Blackhawks center Jonathan Toews (2014-15 season for some stats) as a case study.
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Given I doctored his statistics for the actual formula significantly, there was a different outcome than his actual plus/minus. Keep in mind the fact that plus/minus is calculated by all goals scored when a player is on the ice (with exceptions), not just when the actual player scores. That is where RPM can be different (see the intro article link)
For the style of RPM that I used for Toews, the only plus/minus he got credited for happened to be his own play. No line mates goals or mistakes were taken into account. Now, I am going to introduce you to the next player that I will study, and compare.
That will be Boston Bruins C Patrice Bergeron. I will use the same exact season for some of the statistics (2014-15), not to mention doctor his artificial statistics.
Boston Bruins C Patrice Bergeron – Official Statistics 2014-15:
23 G, 32 A, 1 SHG, +1
The next step in creating Bergeron’s value for RPM is to give him a stat line involving the formula (it is doctored). I am going to give you Bergeron’s artificial stat line for variables A-F, with all of them being artificial.
(To see what each variable represents, click on the link)
- 19*
- 8*
- 2*
- 2*
- 1*
- 3*
(Asterisk indicates artificial statistic)
Now, I am going to give the variables for each variable. You can go to the attached link to see what each variable is worth.
C: “ca” “cf”
D: “dc” “dd”
E: “ea”
F: “fc” “fee” “foz”
More puck prose: Jonathan Toews: Regulated Plus/Minus
Patrice Bergeron’s RPM when using these statistics is 17.044. When comparing his to Toews, he scores a bit lower, whose RPM is 23.336, however there is a slight difference (outside of the artificial stats). Toews gets penalized with a negative number when adding up his value for variable “F.” That lowers his RPM score a touch, not to mention the fact that goals and goals given up are not all created equal in this formula.
Assuming Toews had been given a positive value for variable “F”, he would have scored even higher. On top of that, Boston Bruins C Patrice Bergeron scored a goal with an empty net, meaning he didn’t get penalized with a negative value for the variable “F.”
Looking at this, I think variable “F” might be the biggest concern at this point. I am not sure if a player should be punished too much for missing an empty net, and not scoring an empty net goal (will have to address this combo somehow). I may need to adjust the values for variables C-E at some point as well, but I am going to have to see just how everything works out.
Next: Introduction to Regulated Plus/Minus
I realize it may be hard to understand all of the terminology in this article, but please refer to the other two articles as they will help you understand. I am not sure if I am going to evaluate defenseman or wingers next, however expect more content soon.
Source: www.espn.com