Edmonton Oilers F Taylor Hall: Project Helium – Regulated Plus/Minus
Edmonton Oilers F Taylor Hall: Project Helium – Regulated Plus/Minus
This article analyzing RPM is going to be a bit different from the first three. As a part of our Under 25 series, I will be dissecting one of the most talented players in the NHL. That would be Edmonton Oilers F Taylor Hall.
There is another difference between Hall and the others, and that would be the fact that he plays on a bottom feeder, instead of a contender. Add the fact that Hall doesn’t play on a contending team, his actual plus/minus is going to be poor. Since the individual version of RPM evaluates players by their play, instead of others around them, it should be an interesting study.
Another difference for this RPM study is the season we are going to use. Hall hasn’t played more than 70 games in any other season than 2013-14, therefore I am going to analyze that season. I realize that Hall has played 75 games already this season, however since it isn’t complete, I am not going to use it.
More puck prose: Project Helium: Marian Hossa - Regulated Plus/Minus
Here are Edmonton Oilers F Taylor Hall’s official numbers for 2013-14 (75 games played):
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Oil On Whyte
27 G, 53 A, 0 SHG, -15
I want you to focus on one key statistic – that being the plus/minus. There is going to be a huge difference between Hall’s official plus/minus and his RPM. In order to create Taylor Hall’s RPM, I am going to have to give him artificial statistics. Here are his statistics (some artificial) for 2013-14. To see what each variable in the formula represents, click in the link.
A-20*
B-12*
C-7
D-2*
E-0*
F-0*
(asterisk indicates artificial statistic)
The next step is to give an actual value to each variable. Since “C” and “D” are the only variables that need to be explained (A and B are no different from the NHL version), I will give you the variables here:
C- “ca”(2), “cb”(2), “cc”, “cd”, “ce”
D- “dc”, “df”
(Click on the link to see what each variable represents)
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For those of you who have read the other RPM articles, this is the first in which I have not used an artificial statistic to value a power play goal. Variable “C” has seven goals, which is much higher than any of the first three articles that analyzed players.
When all is said and done, Edmonton Oilers F Taylor Hall’s RPM for 2013-14 is 12.448.
That is actually the lowest of all the players I have analyzed so far, but keep one thing in mind. There are zeros for two of the variables. Even though I didn’t use an artificial number for variable “C”, not being able to add any value for “E” and “F” hurt Hall’s RPM score. Regardless, it is still much better than the -15 he was given credit for by the NHL and it’s way of doing things. If you want to do the math, it is a swing of 27.448 between the two.
One question I have is how different the other three players RPM scores would be if I gave them zero goals for “E” and “F”, coupled with scoring more for “A” and “C” – how much would that would matter?
Variable “B” is a key issue here as well, considering the fact that it subtracts a full point for every goal the player is charged with giving up. Personally, I think Edmonton Oilers F Taylor Hall would rather be evaluated by RPM than the NHL version, just because his team is poor, but regardless of what each players score shows I will continue to evaluate this formula.
Next: NHL Award Leaders: Top 3
Stick around, there will be more players evaluated, and possibly artificial lines.
Source: www.espn.com