Toronto Maple Leafs D Morgan Rielly: Project Helium

Toronto Maple Leafs D Morgan Rielly: Project Helium – Regulated Plus/Minus (Under 25 Series)

After an article on a veteran defenseman, I thought it would be a good idea to evaluate youth in this Regulated Plus/Minus (RPM) study. As some of you may remember, I wrote an Under 25 Series article analyzing Edmonton Oilers forward Taylor Hall. But since this article will be about a defenseman, I will be writing about Toronto Maple Leafs D Morgan Rielly.

Rielly is an extremely talented young defenseman playing on a bad team. Therefore, his growing pains will be exacerbated (statistically speaking). Morgan Rielly is one of the building blocks for the Maple Leafs future, as he was a first round pick in 2012 (5th overall). But, since the Leafs are building for the future more than the present, his statistics are likely to struggle, especially his plus/minus.

However, in RPM it is only his personal mistakes that count, and since he is one of the better players on the Maple Leafs, his actual plus/minus should be worse than his RPM.

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Now, I am going tell you all one key issue when it comes to evaluating Morgan Rielly’s RPM. Even though the stats will be artificial, they should be closer to reality than his real plus/minus. I don’t think that Rielly’s individual play on the ice is worse than the play of his teammates. When a player is better than those around him, his plus/minus will be worse than it actually should be.

Now, on to the actual analysis. I am going to use the same season I have used in all the RPM articles but one, which would be 2014-15. What I want to show you below are Rielly’s actual statistics from that season, not his artificial RPM. Here are his stats from that year:

8 G, 21 A, 0 SHG, -16 (81 games played)

Considering that Rielly doesn’t have the worst offensive numbers for a defenseman, he obviously wasn’t the worst player on the ice for the Maple Leafs. However, since his supporting cast was awful, his plus/minus suffered tremendously. That is what I am trying to adjust by using the players’ stats.

More puck prose: Project Helium: Regulated Plus/Minus - Jonathan Toews

Now, it is time to give Toronto Maple Leafs D Morgan Rielly his RPM statistics. To see what each variable represents, click on the link.

A-6*

B-9*

C-1

D-2*

E-0*

F-1*

(asterisk indicates artificial statistic)

More puck prose: Project Helium: Regulated Plus/Minus - Patrice Bergeron

Since I awarded a goal value to each variable, now I will explain what each one means. I won’t have to say much about variables “A” and “B”, due to the fact that they are the same as the NHL’s plus/minus version (equal to one). However, any other variable with a value will need an explanation.

C- “cb”

D- “db”, “dd”

F- “fe”

(click on the link to see what each variable represents)

More puck prose: Project Helium: Regulated Plus/Minus - Marian Hossa

For the first time in any RPM study (it took six), the player involved had a negative rating. Rielly’s RPM score was -3.162, which is not good by any stretch of the imagination. However, it is still 12.838 better than his NHL version of plus/minus. I think Rielly would be happy with his RPM value, given it is all created through artificial statistics.

Overall, the whole idea of artificial statistics make RPM value very flawed, however gives it a face. I think these players probably don’t score exactly what I have them valued at, however it is possible that they are in the neighborhood of where I have them.

Next: Project Helium: Regulated Plus/Minus - Brent Seabrook

As of now, the only way to give this formula a face is through artificial statistics. The only way to actually get an exact value is to have a scout or another member of a team test this, which is 100% up to the club. Stick around, there will be a recap of these studies, and potentially articles on lines (assuming it is feasible).

source: www.espn.com

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