Toronto Maple Leafs: Jonathan Bernier/James Reimer – “Project Helium” Regulated Goalie Value (RGV) Comparison of Old Tandem
For my first study under the new Regulated Goalie Value (RGV), I am going to compare the old Toronto Maple Leafs goalie tandem of Jonathan Bernier/James Reimer.
Since both Jonathan Bernier and James Reimer were a controversial pair in the city of Toronto (before Reimer was dealt to San Jose), it is going to be a bit interesting to see how they score in a single game. For this study, I am going to take a bad game for each goalie over the past two seasons.
Jonathan Bernier struggled in the 2015-16 season, meaning I several samples to choose from. I decided to use statistics from the game on April 4th, 2016 where the Toronto Maple Leafs hosted the Florida Panthers.
* just a reminder, I only count goals by where they are shot from, not if they are tipped in.
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The Scoring Recap (Florida Goals Only)
Click on the link to see what each variable means
(2nd Pd)
1:34: K+K2 (1-0 FLA)
10:31: F+F11 (2-0 FLA)
13:11: F+F11 (3-0 FLA)
(3rd Pd)
9:30: K+K2+K12 (4-2 FLA)
After the calculation of Bernier’s goal total, he scored 4.005, which is just barely above one per goal. I found that interesting because the Pavelec studies didn’t produce that either time.
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Now, it is time to find a game to compare Reimer to Bernier. Since he (Reimer) had a down season in 2014-15, I thought it would make sense to use that year for a study. After looking over the Maple Leafs schedule, I decided to use the Maple Leafs 5-1 loss to the Winnipeg Jets.
Here are the goals Reimer allowed versus the Jets on January 3rd, 2015.
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The Scoring Recap (Winnipeg Goals Only)
(2nd Pd)
3:29: K (1-1 Tie)
5:59: I+I1+I2 (2-1 WPG)
10:04: F+F1 (3-1 WPG)
(3rd Pd)
3:37 PPG: H+H1+N (4-1 WPG)
10:55: I+I1 (5-1 WPG)
Even though I used a game where James Reimer allowed one more goal than Bernier, he still didn’t end up with much higher of a RGV total per goal allowed. Reimer’s total was 5.047, which was slightly more than Bernier’s, however a lot of that had to do with the fact that Reimer gave up two goals from the point (variable “I”). Bernier only allowed goals from variable “F” and “K” (face-off circle and in front of the net respectively), which produces a lower outcome from RGV when it is calculated.
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Reimer was helped however by the fact that he only allowed one goal when the game was close, due to the fact that if a goal is allowed more than halfway through the game it is penalized (if the game is tied or either team is up or down a goal).
Since this game was a blowout, Bernier got hit harder with that penalty than Reimer did (Bernier allowed two of these goals). One key that helped Reimer may have been that he allowed a power play goal, that being due to the fact that it takes away value. Had that not happened he would have had a higher score.
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All in all, I think the fact that the new changes make it much more level playing field, just by looking at this one study. Given it is just a comparison of two goalies, however keep in mind that they each had areas that helped and hurt them. That is going to be a key in the future, considering the fact that goalies give up goals on odd-man rushes, etc. I think more comparison articles will be forthcoming, and maybe one of these two. Stay tuned.
Source: www.mapleleafs.nhl.com