Colorado Avalanche Free Agency Outlook, Potential Fits

Apr 9, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Avalanche defenseman Zach Redmond (22) following his goal skates back to center ice with defenseman Erik Johnson (6) and center Mikhail Grigorenko (25) and center Shawn Matthias (18) in the third period against the Anaheim Ducks at Pepsi Center. The Ducks defeated the Avalanche 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 9, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Avalanche defenseman Zach Redmond (22) following his goal skates back to center ice with defenseman Erik Johnson (6) and center Mikhail Grigorenko (25) and center Shawn Matthias (18) in the third period against the Anaheim Ducks at Pepsi Center. The Ducks defeated the Avalanche 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Colorado Avalanche Free Agency Preview/Outlook, Salary Cap Situation, Restricted Free Agents, Team Needs, and Potential Fits

One could argue the Colorado Avalanche need to be more active this offseason (draft, free agency, trade market) than any other team. After another disappointing season with quite possibly the NHL’s worst defense core, the Avs need to shake things up.

GM Joe Sakic made it clear earlier this week that restricted free agent Tyson Barrie won’t be traded. It doesn’t completely take him off the table, but it certainly makes others on the roster more vulnerable. Barrie is worth the $5-6 million dollars/year cap hit, but you could understand hesitation when you have a weak defensive group.

Hopes are that one of Chris Bigras, Nikita Zadorov, or Duncan Siemens can possibly emerge for the Avs. Bigras is the best hope of being a top four defender, and even that may be a stretch – he could be nothing more than a solid number five down the road. 

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If Colorado looks to trade a forward, they could target an upgrade on defense – perhaps even package a Nick Holden type with a solid forward for a nice mixed return package.

2015-16 was an interesting season for the Colorado Avalanche. After spending much of the year in the playoff picture, it wasn’t until the final stretch in the last 10-15 games when Minnesota began to separate themselves with the last Wild-Card spot.

Colorado finished 9th in the Western Conference with a record of 39-39-4 with 82 points. Goal scoring was an issue as the Avs had 216 goals for, 240 goals against.

Heading into the Draft in Buffalo, the Avs are set to pick 10th overall. Any number of prospects could be available, including forwards Alex Nylander, Logan Brown, Tyson Jost, or defenseman Olli Juolevi, Mikhail Sergachev, or Jakob Chychrun. All three of those defenders are left-handed shots – something the Avalanche could use with plans to keep Tyson Barrie.

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Colorado Avalanche Free Agency Outlook/Preview

Salary Committed to 2016-17: $52,650,593
Number of Players Signed: 27

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents: Mikkel Boedker, Shawn Matthias, Jesse Winchester, Andrew Agozzino, Zach Redmond, Andrew Bodnarchuk, Patrick Bordeleau, Nate Guenin, Ben Street

Notable Restricted Free Agents: Nathan MacKinnon, Andreas Martinsen, Mikhail Grigorenko, Tyson Barrie, Calvin Pickard, Taylor Beck, Duncan Siemens, Brandon Gormley, Sami Aittokallio, Borna Rendulic

Priority re-signings include MacKinnon, Martinsen, Grigorenko, Barrie, and Pickard (among others).

Once those five have new contracts, we can estimate Colorado could spending anywhere between $65-68 million dollars towards total salary for 2016-17.

If the cap stays the same as expected, it leaves virtually no room for spending. This is why we can safely assume Sakic will be busy.

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Colorado Avalanche Free Agency Team Needs

Top-Six LW, Bottom-Six Depth (Preferably 4th Line Center), Defensive Upgrades (LH 2nd Pairing w/Barrie & RH 3rd Pairing – if Redmond goes unsigned)

Don’t be surprised if Colorado looks to trade Matt Duchene. MacKinnon has spent several years playing the wing, but it’s time to let him play his natural position permanently.

The only true top six LW is Gabriel Landeskog – a great leader, but his overall production so far in his career is somewhat disappointing. That means the Avs should target a player who play up the left side, although a RW isn’t out of the question with Jerome Iginla nearing retirement. Who knows if Grigorenko can serve as a permanent top six RW with Rantanen. 

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The Avs have decent depth in the bottom six group. A hole exists on that 4c slot, although it could be filled by a prospect or re-signing Jesse Winchester for example.

In a depth driven NHL, it never hurts to have a few extra bodies at the ready on the short-list in the minors.

It’s no offense to Nick Holden because he played well in a top four role for the Avs. Although, if you think about it, so did Matt Hunwick for the 30th place Toronto Maple Leafs.

The best teams get both production and solid defensive performances from their top four. Teams such as Nashville and Chicago should be the model for how the Avs attempt to construct their blueline.

With looming expansion on the way, expect some movement between the pipes. Colorado has Semyon Varlamov and Reto Berra under contract, while RFA Calvin Pickard is seeking a new contract. If they keep the trio intact, they risk losing a netminder. The smart play would be to trade Varlamov’s hefty $5.9 million dollar contract, but expect teams to inquire about Pickard’s availability.

Next: Matt Duchene Trade Rumors, Potential Fits

Potential Colorado Avalanche Free Agency Targets

Top-Six LW: Milan Lucic, Andrew Ladd, David Perron

Bottom-Six FWD: Kyle Chipchura, Mike Santorelli, Stephen Gionta, Tyler Kennedy, Brian Gibbons, Kevin Porter

LH2D: Keith Yandle, Dan Hamhuis, Alex Goligoski, Kris Russell

RH3D: Luke Schenn, Jakub Nakladal, Eric Gryba, Matt Tennyson

*Salary/Free Agent information was obtained through www.generalfanager.com