NHL Las Vegas: Expansion Draft Protection List Decisions Roundtable
By Ryan Ritchie
Ryan Ritchie (Site Expert)
On June 21st, 2017, Las Vegas, the NHL’s 31st franchise, will select a roster of 30 players (one from each team) in an expansion draft. By that point, it will be 17 years since the NHL last expanded back in 2000. This time around, the league is determined to make sure that Las Vegas will be competitive from day one which has led to some rule changes. It’s not the tweaking of rules however that stands to leave higher quality players available in 2017.
Over those nearly two decades, we’ve seen a major shift in not only the game itself, but the way teams are built. We now live in a salary cap world where every dollar counts and you build through the draft stocking your prospect pool. This might ultimately lead some teams to protect prospects on cheaper deals in hopes of shedding a bigger contract.
While it’s still too early to think about expansion for most of us in the hockey world, you can bet GM George McPhee is looking at the 2016-17 season as a giant 1230 game tryout. He won’t know with certainty who might be available next June, but it’s not difficult to identify which teams face the toughest decisions.
Of course, some will make decisions easier on themselves by moving bodies out; however, there’s still a handful of teams destined to lose a quality player no matter how busy they are on the trade market.
In a Tough Spot
Just look at the Chicago Blackhawks. Due to no-movement clauses, GM Stan Bowman is forced to use eight of 11 slots already – and it doesn’t look like any of those players are being traded anytime soon. There’s absolutely no way they can save four defenseman, leaving Trevor van Riemsdyk, Ville Pokka, and Viktor Svedberg potentially exposed.
Tampa Bay is in a similar scenario. GM Steve Yzerman needs to figure out whether he should protect four defensemen and lose a quality forward, or only save three defenders and risk losing someone on the back end. Those decisions become even more difficult once the inevitable Ben Bishop deal takes place.
Truth be told, almost every team (aside from maybe Arizona and Toronto) has tough choices to make. Buffalo for example risks losing a quality forward if they want to protect all four defense (Rasmus Ristolainen, Zach Bogosian, Dmitry Kulikov (UFA), and Jake McCabe). The Islanders definitely stand to lose a defender with Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy, Travis Hamonic, Calvin de Haan, Thomas Hickey, and Ryan Pulock all needing protection on the back end.
Music City Stands Above the Rest
There is one team in particular that stands out to me, though; the Nashville Predators.
It seems the Preds are destined to hand Las Vegas a top selection no matter what. Their choices are to either save four defensemen and lose a quality forward, or protect seven forwards and lose Mattias Ekholm. You’d have to imagine that GM David Poile would lean towards saving Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm.
So, who does that leave up front? Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen are locks occupying two of the final four saves. That forces James Neal, Craig Smith, Colin Wilson, Calle Jarnkrok, Viktor Arvidsson, Colton Sissons, and Miikka Salomaki (among others) to battle it out for those final two slots.
Put it this way folks, it doesn’t matter how busy Nashville is on the trade market this season, there’s just no way to avoid the inevitable loss of a quality player next June.
As I step into George McPhee’s shoes here, I’d have several players on my radar. You know at least one of Mattias Ekholm, James Neal, Craig Smith, or Colin Wilson stands to be available. Let’s call that our A grade list. Even if David Poile moves one of those bodies or protect them via conditional pick, a B list of emerging young forwards in Calle Jarnkrok, Viktor Arvidsson, Colton Sissons, Miika Salomaki, and Austin Watson is a solid second option. Imagine how much more difficult the decisions become in Music City if even one of those six B grades has a breakout campaign in 2016-17.
One individual that should be near the top of Las Vegas’ list is Swedish center Calle Jarnkrok.
He earned a six-year contract ($2 million dollar cap hit) this summer after posting a career best 16 goals, 14 assists (30 points) in 2015-16. It was just his second full season after spending the previous two years in the AHL (Grand Rapids/Milwaukee) – Nashville acquired the Red Wings 2010 2nd rounder back in March 2014 as part of the David Legwand deal.
So, what makes Jarnkrok a prime target?
How about the fact that he’s a 25-year-old two-way center under contract until 2022? What if I told you he averaged over 16/minutes of ice-time/game last season? Not enough? Calle also finished second behind Craig Smith (6) with four game-winning goals. He took 799 face-offs (45.8 win percentage), including the majority of shorthanded draws. He only averaged around 40 seconds of ice-time/game on the man advantage (power play), but saw close to 2 minutes/game on the penalty kill.
Long story short, Las Vegas would be wise to bet there’s more left in the tank in terms of potential. Just don’t be surprised if he starts to find that next gear in the upcoming season as the Preds look to finally get over that elusive hump.