NHL Mock Expansion Draft: Protection Lists, Explanations, & More

NHL Mock Expansion Draft: (November) Protection Lists, Alternate Protection Lists, Explanations, Rules, Las Vegas Roster

Las Vegas plans to conduct a monthly NHL mock expansion draft to prepare themselves for next June. We here at Puck Prose are looking to do the same thing with detailed analysis that should have us looking at some of the same players that George McPhee and company are as well.

To break it all down for you, we’ve included a list of available and automatically exempt players. We’ve also included three protection lists. 1) our main list that we’re using to select our Las Vegas roster 2) the first alternative option 3) another alternative option that could be considered. All have explanations as to the thought process behind each selection.

Truth be told, we can target and identify the vast majority of protected players. Between no-movement clauses and star players, it’s only a spot or two on each team that is actually debatable. Now, there’s still lots of time for player movement in 2016-17 leading up to the deadline, and rumors of a trade period before protection lists are due. To play it safe, for the time being, we’ve chosen to omit the likes of Jacob Trouba, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Ben Bishop, among a few others. If there’s uncertainty surrounding an inevitable trade, there’s no point in worrying about it until we see how it affects the new club.

Rules for Expansion

All 30 NHL teams have two options to protect players
a) Seven forwards, three defensemen, one goaltender
b) Eight skaters and one goaltender

– All players that own a no-movement clause in their contract must be protected, unless they agree to waive it.

– *All first and second-year professionals are automatically exempt from the expansion draft.

*There’s been some gray area to this one so we’d like to help clarify with the best explanation we could find. Before shutting down, General Fanager asked this very question to the NHL, with the following response:

via Sin Bin, “A Player aged 18 or 19 earns a year of professional experience by playing 10 or more NHL games in a given NHL season.” “A player aged 20 or older (based on age on December 31 of calendar year in which the season starts) earns a year of professional experience by playing 10 or more Professional Games under a standard player contract in a given League Year.”

General Fanager also wanted answers for European skaters and how the NHL decides to calculate professional years overseas. Here’s the response:

via Sin Bin, “Professional seasons are expected to only count while a player is under an NHL SPC. A player like Artemi Panarin for instance, who played several “professional seasons” in the KHL prior to signing with the Chicago Blackhawks for the 2015-16 season, is expected to still be exempt from the Expansion Draft. This is because his seasons in the KHL were played before he signed an NHL SPC, so his first “professional season” for purposes of expansion is considered the 2015-16 season.”

There’s still a bit of uncertainty surrounding the availability of certain players. Using the rules above, we’ve determined a few players to either be automatically exempt or available, differing from Cap Friendly’s interpretation for their expansion tool.

Player Exposure Requirements

All clubs must provide a minimum one player that falls under each of the following categories:

1) one defenseman who is under contract for 2017-18 and played in 40 games in 2016-17, or 70 games in 2015-16 and 2016-17 combined.

2) two forwards under contract for 2017-18 and played in 40 games in 2016-17, or 70 games in 2015-16 and 2016-17 combined.

3) one goalie under contract for 2017-18 or RFA

Truth be told, all 30 teams will naturally have players that meet the requirements. There won’t be much planning or thought put into it when most bottom six forwards or bottom pair defenseman go unprotected.

– Players with a career-ending injury, or who have missed the previous 60 games due to injury will be automatically exempt from the expansion draft. This is notable for individuals such as Ryane Clowe (NJ) or David Clarkson (CLB) who some feared would take up a spot due to no-move clauses.

Las Vegas Selection Rules

– Las Vegas must select one player from each of the 30 existing teams.
– They must select at least 14 forwards, nine defense, and three goalies.
– Las Vegas must spend between 60-100 percent of the prior season’s upper cap limit ($43.8-$73.0 million)
– *20 of those 30 selections must be under contract for 2017-18 (only 10 UFAs or RFAs are allowed for that two-day negotiating period)

Honestly, this one doesn’t make a lot of sense. Experts/analysts insist that RFAs don’t count against the 20 under contract, but that’s absurd. If Las Vegas selects an RFA, they own that players rights until he’s eligible for free agency, so technically speaking, the player is pretty much under contract. Even if he’s unhappy and wants to flee to the KHL, Vegas still owns him if he ever decides to come back – not as though an RFA is going anywhere.

By the way, that two-day negotiating period set forth during the time Las Vegas is selecting is to ensure they can get all 30 players under contract for 2017-18. Without it, there’d be too much uncertainty with selections. This way if a free agent refuses to join the expansion team, at least they have time to change their selection to someone under contract or another FA that will agree to terms.

All 30 NHL teams must submit their protection list by 5pm (et) on Saturday, June 17, 2017 at the very latest. Las Vegas will then have until June 20, 2017 to submit their expansion draft picks. The announcement is expected to be made the following day on June 21st.

Anaheim Ducks

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

Sadly, the Anaheim Ducks are one of the teams in tough with the expansion draft. One way or another, this organization is bound to lose a quality player. If they choose to save an extra defenseman (the likely choice), it will result in exposed top-six forwards. However, if Anaheim wants to save those forwards, it would cost them a quality top-four d-man. Now, don’t be surprised if GM Bob Murray uses draft picks/or players in order to protect an extra body, but his insistence to go for it in 2016-17 will ultimately cost him.

Protection List:

We’ve chosen the 4-4-1 protection scheme for Anaheim. Three of four spots up front are occupied with NMC’s, leaving room for only one of the available forwards (Rakell, Silfverberg, Cogliano, etc.). On the blue line, Murray might be able to convince Bieksa to waive his NMC, in which case Josh Manson is protected. To play it safe, we’ve omitted Manson, claiming the Ducks will seek to protect him even if it means a side deal.

Alternative Protection List 1:

As mentioned, here is what things would look like if Bieksa is willing to waive his NMC.

Alternative Protection List 2:

If GM Bob Murray is confident Bieksa will waive his NMC and thinks he can protect Manson via trade, then a 7-3-1 scheme opens up. This would allow Anaheim to protect the likes of Rakell, Silfverberg, and Cogliano, plus another forward – we’ve decided to go with a quality prospect in Nic Kerdiles.

Arizona Coyotes

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

Due to the relatively young age of the Coyotes forward group, many top players are automatically exempt. That’s good news for a team that needs to protect more than three defensemen.

Protection List:

We’re assuming Arizona seeks to retain Martin Hanzal long-term (due to become a UFA next summer). That leaves room for three more forwards. Tobias Rieder and Anthony Duclair are locks, but that fourth slot is wide open. We’ve gone with Jamie McGinn, but GM John Chayka might be inclined to protect Jordan Martinook or Henrik Samuelsson instead. Looking at the blue line/goaltending, those spots are virtual locks with the current occupants.

Alternative Protection List 1:

This is what the protection list might look like if the Yotes intend to let Hanzal walk in free agency, and would prefer to protect the younger quality pieces.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Very similar to our main protection list, suggesting this is what it may look like if Martinook’s hot play continues throughout 2016-17.

Boston Bruins

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

In case anyone had any thought of protecting four defensemen, it’s absolutely unnecessary and there’s just too many forwards to protect. With that being the case, this is one of those rare scenarios with three protection lists using the same scheme. There are only a couple of spots up for grabs/debate anyways.

Protection List:

The main list was pretty straightforward I felt. The only real spot for good debate is that 7th forward slot. I’ve chosen to protect the younger, cheaper cap hit in Jimmy Hayes, forcing Las Vegas to absorb Matt Beleskey’s $3.8 million dollar cap hit if they choose to take a forward from the Bruins.

Alternative Protection List 1:

Virtually identical to the main list. This is for those that may prefer to protect Beleskey in hopes of luring George McPhee to bite on Jimmy Hayes.

Alternative Protection List 2:

If GM Don Sweeney wants to keep Vegas away from guys like Kevan Miller and Adam McQuaid, he could use that 7th slot to protect a prospect, we’ve chosen Tim Schaller. You only go this route if you’re comfortable losing a decent forward in order to protect an already depleted blue line.

Buffalo Sabres

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

There’s a good chance the Sabres will be forced to save an extra defender in expansion. This could ultimately expose some quality forwards. We explore the potential of a 7-3-1 protection scheme, but it leaves a notable UFA for Las Vegas to bargain with that could be a major loss on the back end.

Protection List:

Even though Dmitry Kulikov is slated to become a UFA, it’s important to get him protected. Some fans on social media have suggested the Sabres could circumvent the system with a pre-arrangement ensuring a refusal to sign with the expansion club, but those are the type of curious situations that can get the league involved. No instead, we protect Bogosian, Ristolainen, Kulikov, and McCabe, leaving us four spots up front. Okposo and O’Reilly are locks, but debate could occur on those other two spots. Although it’s unlikely Las Vegas would have interest in Kane’s character issues, it’s too much of a risk to leave him exposed. With the last spot, I’ve chosen to protect a young 1st rounder still looking to reach his ceiling.

Alternative Protection List 1:

If Buffalo wanted to roll the dice with Kulikov, they’ve got a lot of room to protect several key forwards that would otherwise be available. Guys like Girgensons, Ennis, Foligno, and Larsson could all be saved in this scenario.

Alternative Protection List 2:

If Tim Murray truly is ready to turn the page on Kane as past reports have suggested, he could leave Evander exposed. Basically, any way you want to look at it, Buffalo stands to lose someone such as Ennis, Kane, Foligno, or Larsson.

Calgary Flames

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

The Flames could technically use either protection scheme as they’re bound to lose a decent player regardless. Since they’ve got an abundance of forwards and only three defenders that truly need protection, it makes sense to use the 7-3-1 option.

Protection List:

In terms of locks for protection, Giordano, Brodie, and Hamilton are guaranteed. Up front, Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, and Backlund are virtual locks as well. With seven forwards available for protection, that leaves us three spots to work with. Brouwer and Frolik are impact top-six forwards, which make for sensible saves. We’ve gone with Lance Bouma for the final spot serving as an important role player in the bottom-six. One could make a case for Michael Ferland, Alex Chiasson, or maybe even Hunter Shinkaruk.

Alternative Protection List 1:

As mentioned, alternative options exist in the same scheme. Another popular option in place of Lance Bouma might be Michael Ferland.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Not sure why Calgary would choose this option unless they felt some insistence to protect Jyrki Jokipakka. If that’s the case, we’d expect our “virtual locks” to occupy the other seven spots.

Carolina Hurricanes

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

If the rules would allow for it, the Canes would certainly love to protect extra forwards and maybe save one or two defenseman total. Fact is, most of their quality blue liners that emerged in 2015-16 are automatically exempt. There would be little reason to protect four d-men, but we’ve put one together nonetheless.

Protection List:

For our main list, we’ve decided to protect what GM Ron Francis is building; the younger core players. Given the lack of talent on the back end needing to be saved, we’ve chosen to protect Faulk, Dahlbeck, and Carrick. The obvious locks up front are Staal, Skinner, Rask, Lindholm, and Teravainen. Those last two spots are where things get a little fuzzy. Using our philosophy, it makes sense to protect both Brock McGinn and Phil Di Giuseppe. Neither has made the impact that a Nestrasil or Nordstrom has, but they could be major future pieces.

Alternative Protection List 1:

If you’d prefer to protect the veteran talent, this might the protection scheme for you. Here Carolina could save Ron Hainsey on the back end, and both Andrej Nestrasil and Joakim Nordstrom up front. You’re basically forcing Las Vegas to pluck from your prospect pool though.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Again, not sure why the Canes would want this protection scheme, but if they felt a need to protect their blue line that they’ve been working desperately to build, then perhaps it makes sense?

Chicago Blackhawks

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

If you’ve tinkered around with the expansion tools, you know that Chicago has locked themselves into seven players (four forwards, three defense, one goalie) with no-movement clauses. That leaves no possibility of using the 4-4-1 scheme to protect a valuable defender, unless of course Chicago is willing to hand Marcus Kruger to Las Vegas.

Protection List:

With only three spots to fill, the work is fairly limited only having to identify three forwards. Marcus Kruger is a must-save, Richard Panik is slowly working his way to a similar status (if he can keep it up), leaving just one spot. Given his emergence this year, Ryan Hartman might have the early lead, but that could always change.

Alternative Protection List 1:

For the last forward spot here, we’ve gone with Mark McNeill. A handful of available players have shown a lot more at the NHL level so far, but then again, McNeill’s ceiling potential is a lot higher than the rest.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Here’s another alternative in that final forward spot. Dennis Rasmussen had a decent showing in 2015-16 and still has time to make his mark.

Colorado Avalanche

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

It’s worth noting that 36-year-old defenseman Francois Beauchemin may be asked to waive his no-movement clause if Sakic can convince the veteran Las Vegas will have little interest. If that’s the case, Nikita Zadorov seems to be the next logical choice for protection on the back end.

Protection List:

Using the 7-3-1 scheme, you can see we’ve opted to save Calvin Pickard between the pipes. This is one of the best protection list arguments around the league. Here’s my take on it: Varlamov is 28-years-old carrying a lucrative cap hit. Pickard is only 24-years-old on an affordable deal. So, younger and cheaper always makes more sense. Plus, Varlamov is a great goalie, but it’s not as though he hasn’t had a chance to cement his name as an elite tier goalie. One way or another, George McPhee could be eyeing a goaltender from the Avs, so mid as well free up close to $6 million dollars in cap space.

Those top five forward spots are virtual locks using this protection scheme. Those last two slots are where debate opens up. We’re leaning towards Joe Sakic saving a couple core veterans opposed to prospects.

Alternative Protection List 1:

Similar to the first protection list, but this is what things might look like if Colorado would prefer to save a prospect instead of Cody McLeod. There’s still a long season to determine which prospect needs saving the most, but perhaps Grimaldi has the early lead.

Alternative Protection List 2:

If the Avs prove unsuccessful in getting Beauchemin to waive his NMC, but also feel it necessary to protect Nikita Zadorov at the same time, then a 4-4-1 scheme comes into play. It only leaves enough room to save MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog, and Soderberg up front, leaving the likes of Mikhail Grigorenko available – not exactly ideal.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

You wouldn’t know it by looking at the standings over the past couple of years, but Columbus boasts one of the deeper groups in the NHL. No matter which protection scheme they choose, they stand to lose a quality player. We tinkered with a 4-4-1 scheme in an attempt to save Jack Johnson, but the numbers just don’t work unless Blue Jackets fans are okay losing a Boone Jenner or Alex Wennberg type.

Protection List:

Working with what’s in front of us at the moment, Scott Hartnell and his NMC are still in the mix. The forced save leaves names like William Karlsson and Lukas Sedlak on the outside looking in. That could change if Jarmo can get Hartnell to either waive his no-move or find another team that wants him.

Alternative Protection List 1:

Here’s what things might look like if Hartnell is traded or waives that NMC. In this philosophy, Columbus is saving as many core pieces as possible.

Alternative Protection List 2:

This is what the 7-3-1 scheme might look like if Lukas Sedlak continues to impress in 2016-17. It’s basically a three man battle between Sedlak, Karlsson, and Wennberg for that final spot up front.

Dallas Stars

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

For the sake of Dallas’ protection lists, we’ve opted to exclude impending UFA Patrick Sharp. The thought process is this: Jim Nill probably isn’t concerned that Las Vegas would have interest in an aging veteran, and we don’t even know if there’s plans to re-sign Sharp. Those protection slots are better served for younger core pieces.

Protection List:

For this list, we’re assuming GM Jim Nill has every intent to keep his top talent together since they’re in the middle of a Stanley Cup window. That means protecting the likes of Cody Eakin, Radek Faksa, Brett Ritchie, and Antoine Roussel. On the blue line, there are a handful of players of similar talent level that could be debated upon. Logical selections have gotta be Klingberg and Johns. That third slot is a wild-card between Nemeth, Lindell, Oleksiak, Benn, and Hamhuis.

Alternative Protection List 1:

This is an example of what the list could look like if Dallas opts to use one of those final forward slots on a prospect. Only problem is deciding which prospect to protect from Gemel Smith, Curtis McKenzie, and Brendan Ranford (among others).

Alternative Protection List 2:

If the Stars want to save an extra blue liner, it will likely cost them a quality forward next June. Dallas has put a lot of work into fixing the back end, so perhaps they’d like to preserve that. It might look a little something like the above.

Detroit Red Wings

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

The Red Wings would likely love to save upwards of four, maybe even five defensemen with a couple of guys just starting to make an impact. Unfortunately, they’ve got far too many forwards to take care of, leaving them with the 7-3-1 scheme.

Protection List:

Our thought process behind the main list is preserving the most important players, even though it leaves a few key guys on the outside looking in. The Red Wings would surely love to protect Athanasiou, Helm, and Glendening, among others, but numbers don’t seem to support it. To save any of those forwards, it means exposing the likes of Riley Sheahan or Anthony Mantha.

The toughest selection was that final defensive slot. We’ve opted to go with Alexey Marchenko, but Detroit would probably love to protect Ryan Sproul and Xavier Ouellet as well.

Alternative Protection List 1:

If GM Ken Holland is determined to save his younger core, a list could look like this. It would include Athanasiou up front and Sproul on the back end. This is a very real possibility, but as you can see, Detroit would need to feel comfortable that Las Vegas wouldn’t select Henrik Zetterberg, who would be exposed in this scenario.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Detroit can’t exactly afford to lose a young defensive prospect like Sproul or Ouellet given the current situation. Perhaps a 4-4-1 scheme exposing the likes of Abdelkader and Sheahan might help keep Las Vegas away from the back end.

Edmonton Oilers

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

GM Peter Chiarelli has set himself up beautifully for the expansion draft. The Oilers are one of the few teams where a 7-3-1 scheme protects just the right players, leaving few guys available that would be a devastating loss. The only real potential to have quality talent plucked is between the pipes with top prospect Laurent Brossoit – although the more Talbot performs, the easier that loss would be to deal with.

Protection List:

nine of 11 spots are spoken for even though only three actual NMC’s exist. Eberle, Lucic, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, and Pouliot are virtual locks up front. Sekera, Klefbom, and Larsson are the only defensemen that needs protection, leaving just two forward spots up for grabs. If Edmonton wants to keep the current group together that is having so much success, it makes sense to protect both Zack Kassian and Patrick Maroon.

Alternative Protection List 1:

Similar to our main list, but this is what things might look like if Edmonton opts to use those final two spots on prospects opposed to veterans. There are several young players that could be in the mix, we’ve opted to go with Khaira and Pakarinen.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Here’s a hybrid mix of the first two lists. If Edmonton is having difficulty choosing between a veteran or prospect approach, they could force themselves to pick (1) of Maroon or Kassian, and (1) of the remaining available prospects.

Los Angeles Kings

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

It’s important to note that while we have included a 4-4-1 scheme in the 2nd alternate list, it’s highly unlikely LA chooses that route with the abundance of forwards available. As it stands, the Kings already stand to leave a few quality players exposed in the 7-3-1 format.

Protection List:

Eight players are virtually locked into protection slots. The three D (Doughty, Martinez, Muzzin), Quick, then up front, Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli, and Pearson. That leaves three forward spots to protect players. Given his injury history, I’d prefer to keep Gaborik unprotected but I see LA protecting an old investment. So, we’ve got Trevor Lewis, Dwight King, Jordan Nolan, Andy Andreoff, Kyle Clifford, Michael Mersch, Nic Dowd, and Nick Shore all fighting for two spots. I’m opting to protect Clifford and Mersch.

Alternative Protection List 1:

If the Kings would prefer to protect a few more core pieces, they could opt for this option which is similar to the main list minus Gaborik and Mersch, plus Lewis and King.

Alternative Protection List 2:

If for whatever reason LA were to choose to save an extra defenseman, the only real debate in the entire list is whether to protect Derek Forbort or Brayden McNabb with that final spot. Again, let’s call this very unlikely.

Minnesota Wild

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

One way or another, the Wild are likely to lose one of two defensemen. Because of that, Minnesota can make life a little easier on themselves. Sure, they could use a 4-4-1 protection scheme and choose who to keep between Jonas Brodin or Marco Scandella. Then again, it’ll cost them three valuable exposed forwards to do so. Why not use the 7-3-1 format, protect Suter, Dumba, and Spurgeon, and let Las Vegas decide which top-four defender they’d prefer. At least that way, Minnesota can protect a few extra bodies.

Protection List:

Having three extra forward slots means the Wild don’t need to choose between saving Coyle or Granlund. They can save both, plus Nino Niederreiter. That 7th slot is where things get interesting. We’ve opted for Erik Haula, but other names that could contend are Jason Zucker, Eric Staal, Teemu Pulkkinen, Zac Dalpe, and Tyler Graovac.

Alternative Protection List 1:

Let’s call this the protection list if Eric Staal continues to tear it up in 2016-17. On such an affordable cap hit, it wouldn’t make much sense to risk losing him if he has a solid bounce back season.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Here’s what that 4-4-1 list might look like. As you can see, it leaves Charlie Coyle available, and you mid as well save the emerging Christian Folin and force Las Vegas to pay up if they want to pluck top talent from the Wild.

Montreal Canadiens

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

This is admittedly one of the toughest teams to figure out. They could make an argument for using either protection scheme, and tend to have a large number of players vying for very few spots. It makes those final 2-3 forward slots a difficult choice.

Protection List:

On the back end, Weber, Petry, and Beaulieu are logical choices to protect. Personally, I’d prefer to save the three extra forwards opposed to keeping Emelin. I’m not even sure Las Vegas would be interested in the Russian defender.

Up front, the Habs may opt to leave Plekanec unprotected to see if they could shed the contract, but it might be wise to save the longtime Montreal forward. It also makes sense to save their newest investment in Andrew Shaw. That leaves two slots for (2) David Desharnais, Torrey Mitchell, Paul Byron, Brian Flynn, Phillip Danault, Daniel Carr, Jacob de La Rose, Sven Adrighetto, and Charles Hudon. I’m leaning to Hudon and Danault based on potential.

Alternative Protection List 1:

If the Habs would prefer to keep more of their core 23-man roster together, they might choose to protect the likes of Daniel Carr and Paul Byron instead of a pair of prospects.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Should Montreal feel a need to protect Alexei Emelin (not sure why they would want to do this), a 4-4-1 scheme might look like this. It’s worth noting that leaves Plekanec and Shaw for Las Vegas to choose from.

Nashville Predators

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

Welcome Preds fans to that exclusive club of teams bound to provide one of the better selections to Las Vegas. The conundrum is this: use a 7-3-1 scheme and lose D Mattias Ekholm, or use a 4-4-1 scheme and lose one of Colin Wilson, Craig Smith, Viktor Arvidsson, Calle Jarnkrork, the list goes on. Perhaps if Nashville is unable to turn things around after a slow start, it might trigger some type of trade that allows the Predators to protect seven forwards.

Protection List:

Assuming things stay relatively normal without significant change, the 4-4-1 scheme makes a little more sense. Ekholm is far more valuable than any one of those forwards that Nashville could lose. Some have suggested James Neal be left unprotected due to his contract, but that would be a mistake for the Preds, he’s a quality goal scorer. The only real debate is who to protect with that fourth and final slot up front. Arvidsson is certainly forcing his name into the conversation early on, but this has gotta be a two-man race between Colin Wilson and Craig Smith.

Alternative Protection List 1:

Perhaps David Poile does want to tempt George McPhee leaving Neal unprotected in hopes of shedding a big contract. If that’s the case, Nashville can protect both Smith and Wilson and don’t have to choose.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Let’s make a wild hypothetical that Nashville’s defensive experiment is a disaster. Maybe Ekholm gets dealt, or the Preds are okay letting Las Vegas potentially scoop him up. A 7-3-1 scheme could look like this. At least in this scenario, they can save Neal, Smith, Wilson, Arvidsson, and Jarnkrok.

New Jersey Devils

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

GM Ray Shero has options at this point. Depending how he feels, the Devils could use either protection scheme. The debate becomes, would you rather save D Jon Merill or Devante-Smith Pelly and Mike Cammalleri plus one other forward. Truth be told, if I’m GM George McPhee, my eyes are set squarely on goaltenders Keith Kinkaid and Scott Wedgewood.

Protection List:

Using the 7-3-1 format, locks to be protected include Hall, Zajac, Henrique, and Palmieri up front, Greene and Severson on the back end, and Schneider in goal. That leaves three forward slots and one on defense. Looking to the blue line, the debate is between John Moore and Jon Merrill. Both are similar talents but you’ve got to give the advantage to Moore unless Merill turns some heads upon return from injury. Looking at the forwards, Smith-Pelly and Cammalleri are next top talents that need protection. That leaves (1) slot for Josefson, Bennett, and Boucher. Although Boucher is yet to make much of an NHL impact, there’s a lot of potential worth saving.

Alternative Protection List 1:

If New Jersey prefers to save both Moore and Merill, it’s certainly possible. It would leave the likes of Smith-Pelly and Cammalleri up for grabs.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Given his age and injury history, Ray Shero may prefer to see if Las Vegas is interested in taking the Cammalleri contract off their hands. If that’s the case, it allows the Devils to save one of those extra forwards (Bennett or Josefson).

New York Islanders

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

Here’s another team that is difficult to figure out. With reason to save upwards of five defensemen, GM Garth Snow needs to make some difficult decisions. My thought process is this: If the Isles want to protect Ryan Pulock (might be wise), they could use a 4-4-1 scheme leaving both Hickey and de Haan unprotected. Then again, the highly touted prospect is yet to make any type of impact so we’re willing to bet other players rank higher on Las Vegas’ list. Given the amount of quality forwards in need of protection, Garth Snow mid as well use the 7-3-1 format and let George McPhee likely select one of Calvin de Haan or Thomas Hickey.

Protection List:

We were leaning towards protecting Jaroslav Halak after his impressive World Cup performance. Recent trade rumors, however, suggest he may have an expiration date. If that’s the case, J-F Berube is the logical save. It’s not a knock on Greiss’ talent, merely an age factor – why save the stop-gap option for Ilya Sorokin?

In terms of locks to be protected, Boychuk, Leddy, and Hamonic make up the back end. Up front, Tavares, Ladd, Lee, Strome, and Nelson are safe. That leaves a couple of spots for the likes of Casey Cizikas, Josh Bailey, Shane Prince, Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, the list goes on. We’ve opted to protect Cizikas and Bailey.

Alternative Protection List 1:

The only downfall of a 4-4-1 scheme to protect Ryan Pulock is that it means sacrificing one of those forwards that should be a lock for protection. Take your pick, Anders Lee, Ryan Strome, or Brock Nelson. We went with Nelson, but this isn’t exactly a viable option unless Garth Snow has plans to protect players via trade.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Almost identical to our main protection list. This is for you out there who may value Shane Prince a little higher than longtime Isles forward Josh Bailey. The only other option is to leave Casey Cizikas unprotected, but that would be a mistake as Las Vegas would likely be all over that.

New York Rangers

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

This protection list for the Rangers seemed a lot more simple at the start of 2016-17. Now, we’ve got emerging players and a Rick Nash bounce back performance that could make things very interesting. Regardless of what type of numbers Rick Nash puts up, if NY doesn’t win the Cup, Jeff Gorton would be wise to tempt Las Vegas with Nash’s availability. I might even use his bounce back campaign to try to arrange a deal to ensure George McPhee selects him. A similar scenario played out in 2000 when Columbus GM Doug MacLean was given a pair of prospects to select Geoff Sanderson.

Protection List:

Many were asking how NY can possibly rid themselves of Dan Girardi’s NMC in time for the expansion draft. Truth be told, it doesn’t hurt them all that much if they’re forced to protect him. And they can always ask him to waive the no-move clause citing his lucrative contract as a reason why he wouldn’t be selected.

In this scenario, defense and goaltending are locked down. Among the locks to be protected up front, we have Stepan, Kreider, Zuccarello, Zibanejad, and you might even include Miller and Lindberg. We’ve also included Kevin Hayes, although who knows with the way Brandon Pirri has been playing early on. It leaves names like Pirri, Grabner, Fast, and Jooris on the outside looking in.

Alternative Protection List 1:

Here’s what the protection list might look like at season’s end if Brandon Pirri continues playing the way he has. We’ve also included Dylan McIlrath on the back end as the potential replacement if Girardi were to waive his NMC.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Call this one very unlikely, but let’s say that Girardi is unwilling to waive his NMC and Jeff Gorton feels the need to protect Dylan McIllrath given the emerging depth up front. Only problem with this: it leaves J.T. Miller and Oscar Lindberg available.

Ottawa Senators

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

The Ottawa Senators could use a 4-4-1 protection scheme in order to protect their top four defensive group, but it just won’t be feasible with a plethora of forwards available. It seems Marc Methot could be the odd-man out on the back end, which may or may not interest Las Vegas in his early 30s. Don’t be surprised if the Sens use a conditional pick or prospects to get additional protection for Methot.

Protection List:

In the 7-3-1 format, there are five forwards that could be considered virtual locks to be saved: Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Mark Stone, and Kyle Turris. Things get interesting in the battle for those last two spots. We think Curtis Lazar and J-G Pageau are the next two in line, leaving names such as Zack Smith, Matt Puempel, and Ryan Dzingel on the outside looking in.

Alternative Protection List 1:

Identical to our main list except that we’ve swapped Ryan Dzingel for Curtis Lazar. With the way things are trending, there’s a chance Dzingel will have more value by the time June rolls around.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Here’s what that 4-4-1 scheme would look like. As you can see, it’s not an ideal scenario since it leaves Kyle Turris and J-G Pageau unprotected.

Philadelphia Flyers

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

It’s important to note that while we’ve included a 4-4-1 protection list in our second alternative list, it’s merely to illustrate a point that it’s not a viable option.

Philly has a lot of tough decisions to make in expansion. Who do they protect between the pipes? Which defenders beyond the Ghost need to be saved? Which forward occupy those last couple of spots in a seven forward scheme? We’ve done our best to tackle these questions.

Protection List:

We’re opting to protect Steve Mason right now. Both Mason and Neuvirth are UFAs next summer, while 22-year-old Anthony Stolarz also remains as an option. At this point, it looks like Mason could earn another contract, but we’ll have to see how the season plays out.

On the blue line, a max of four defensemen could potentially use protection and that number dips to three if the Flyers let Michael Del Zotto walk into free agency. Philly is trending towards a younger back end, so we’ve opted to protect Gostisbehere, Gudas, and Manning.

Five forwards are virtual locks for Philadelphia: Claude Giroux (NMC), Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier, Wayne Simmonds, and Brayden Schenn. That leaves two forward spots for a number of players. This is where the debate will be as we’ve chosen Scott Laughton and Michael Raffl. Those selections leave Matt Read, Dale Weise, Nick Cousins, Taylor Leier, and P.E. Bellemare on the outside looking in.

Alternative Protection List 1:

Here’s what the protection list could look like next June if both Read and Leier (AHL) continue their hot play.

Alternative Protection List 2:

There aren’t many logical reasons why Philly would need a 4-4-1 format, except perhaps if they were to re-sign Del Zotto and felt it necessary to protect the back end. Still, are you honestly going to sacrifice a Brayden Schenn in order to save a Del Zotto or Manning? Absolutely not.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

Based on the early play of Nick Bonino and Carl Hagelin, there’s a growing argument one could make for using the 4-4-1 protection scheme. Following their Cup win this past Spring, that thought would have been unimaginable. A lot it hinges on the injured top prospect on the back end Derrick Pouliot. If he makes some noise upon return, how do you decide between saving Brian Dumoulin or Derrick Pouliot?

On a side note, Marc-Andre Fleury will be omitted until he finds a new home. The Pens might keep the pair together up until the deadline, maybe even longer. But at some point, Fleury and his NMC will need to be traded.

Protection List:

This is pure speculation, but something tells me that Pittsburgh will do a good job at hiding Pouliot in 2016-17. He’s already on the long-term IR, and if they force him down to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, it becomes increasingly difficult for Las Vegas to select a player with limited NHL experience.

With Pouliot on the sidelines, Pittsburgh can save Letang, Maatta, and Dumoulin. That leaves Ian Cole, Trevor Daley, and Justin Schultz available.

Picking six of the seven forwards was fairly simple. Malkin, Crosby, and Kessel have no-move clauses. Hornqvist, Bonino, and Hagelin might be considered that next tier of forwards, which leaves just one opening up front. Here’s where the serious debate begins as we’re choosing between Bryan Rust, Scott Wilson, Tom Kuhnhackl, and Garrett Wilson (among others).

Alternative Protection List 1:

Nearly identical to our main list, with a couple of changes. Some might prefer Kuhnhackl over Rust up front. On the back end, if Pouliot comes off the long-term IR and finally starts having an impact, Pittsburgh could find themselves in a “do we save Dumoulin or Pouliot” type scenario.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Should Pouliot make his way back into the lineup and have that offensive impact the Pens have been waiting for, it could back them into a corner. A 4-4-1 protection list certainly isn’t ideal, but possible depending how 2016-17 plays out. It leaves guys like Bonino and Hagelin exposed, but that might be the price to pay to protect the back end.

San Jose Sharks

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

Let the debate begin! Truth be told, the Sharks have a number of similar quality players that just happen to fall in that grey area where only a limited amount can be protected at each position. So, those final few spots up front and last spot on the blue line has multiple players vying to be saved.

The debate goes further than just players though. San Jose needs to figure out whether they plan to protect seven forwards or four-plus defenseman. The 7-3-1 scheme is most likely, but that could change depending how SJ does in 2016-17.

*Important note: We’re basically omitting Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau. Both are slated to become UFAs and there’d be little reason for Las Vegas to select either. San Jose can save the two forward spots with a safe gamble that Thornton/Marleau go untouched. The only way these lists change is if SJ reaches an extension with either before the end of the year.

Protection List:

In terms of locks to be saved, we’ve got goaltender Martin Jones, defenders Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic, and forwards Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, and Mikkel Boedker. That leaves us three forwards and one defenseman to protect. Some may favor the likes of Justin Braun or Brendan Dillon the back end, but I’d prefer to save one of Dylan DeMelo or Mirco Mueller. It’s nothing against Braun or Dillon, but they’ve had their shot to show what they can do. I’d rather bank on DeMelo or Mueller developing into something a little better.

Three spots up front, several names to choose from: Joel Ward, Tommy Wingels, Melker Karlsson, Matt Nieto, Chris Tierney, Barclay Goodrow, and Ryan Carpenter. As you can tell, we’re favoring Karlsson, Nieto, and Tierney, but that could always change.

Alternative Protection List 1:

Here’s what the Sharks protection list might look like if they were to strictly protect top talent regardless of age.

Alternative Protection List 2:

So, this is what a 4-4-1 format might look like. Considering there’s roughly five or six forwards of similar talent level vying for three spots in the tradition protection scheme, San Jose could say “we’d rather save an extra blueliner and just let Las Vegas choose from that group of forwards instead of trying to make the decision ourselves.”

St. Louis Blues

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

The Blues are in a tough position. If they want to save seven forwards, they likely stand to lose a quality defender. Should they choose to protect four or more defenseman, quality forwards become available. One way or another, St. Louis stands to lose a decent player unless they can wheel and deal in June to protect a few extra bodies via trade.

Protection List:

The way we see it is this: Four forwards, two defensemen, and goalie Jake Allen all require protection. That leaves three forwards and one d-man to fill out our list.

Looking to the back end, three players are vying for that last spot; Joel Edmundson, Petteri Lindbohm and Carl Gunnarsson. Given his age and cap hit, it might be safe to assume Gunnarsson will be on the outside looking in. It seems Edmundson might have the early lead on Lindbohm, but we’ll have to see how the new season plays out.

Up front, those last three spots are tough to pick. Still available at this point is Paul Stastny, David Perron, Patrik Berglund (UFA), Nail Yakupov, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Ty Rattie. How exactly is St. Louis supposed to pick between that group? Right now, it seems Stastny, Yakupov, and Rattie might be the top three.

Alternative Protection List 1:

This is for those you who might prefer Lindbohm over Edmundson on the back end. We’ve also taken a youthful approach to the forwards, assuming that Las Vegas might not be interested in a 30-year-old Paul Stastny at $7 million dollars/year. Although, if I’m George McPhee, those contracts of Rick Nash or Paul Stastny are even more attractive when they help get to that min. cap number.

Alternative Protection List 2:

While using a 4-4-1 list is unlikely, we wanted to illustrate what it might look like. Unless St. Louis feels the need to protect an extra defenseman, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. One could argue that a 7-3-1 scheme makes a defenseman extra vulnerable, while a 4-4-1 scheme basically forces Las Vegas to select from a group of six talented forwards opposed to just three.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

Even though they’re one of the deepest teams that promises to hand Las Vegas a top selection, the Lightning’s protection list is arguably the easiest to determine. Their seven forward spots are locked in, which leaves debate for maybe one or two spots on the back end. Ben Bishop will be ommitted until he finds a new home. It’s unclear if he’ll stick around the entire year or not, but at some point he will be moved. The 22-year-old Andrei Vasilevskiy is the logical save between the pipes.

Protection List:

As mentioned, the forward spots are all accounted for. Between NMC’s for Stamkos, Callahan, and Filppula, it leaves just enough room to protect Kucherov, Johnson, Palat, and Drouin. Little can be done to save the likes of Alex Killorn, Vladislav Namestnikov, or J.T. Brown.

Hedman is a lock on the back end obviously. The only real debate is the last two d-slots. We’re assuming Steve Yzerman might favor the likes of Sustr and Nesterov over veterans Stralman, Garrison, and Coburn.

Alternative Protection List 1:

It would reasonable for one to argue protecting Tampa’s top two defenders regardless of the fact that Stralman is 30-years-old. If left available, he could be an attractive target for the NHL’s 31st franchise.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Here’s how things could look if recent trends continue. The Lightning have been waiting a couple of years now for Slater Koekkoek to step up and have an impact. He’s doing just that in recent games and could force Yzerman’s hand in protecting him if his hot play continues.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

The Maple Leafs are one of those few teams that could use either protection scheme and have it make little difference to the quality of player left available. Given the fact there’s a handful of younger forwards who could have a future in Toronto, it makes sense to use the traditional 7-3-1.

Protection List:

In terms of locks for protections, goaltender Frederik Andersen, defenders Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner, and forwards Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Leo Komarov are safe bets. You might even throw F Connor Brown’s name in there seeing as there’s little chance he’s left exposed. For those final three forward spots, we’re opting with AHL points leader Brendan Leipsic, tough guy Matt Martin, and prospect Kerby Rychel.

For that final spot on the blue line, I’ve selected Martin Marincin. Depending how the year plays out, Connor Carrick might be able to narrow the gap, perhaps even surpass Marincin.

Alternative Protection List 1:

Here’s what the list might look like if Toronto wants to protect a bit more of that youth they’ve worked hard to put together.

Alternative Protection List 2:

Now, there’s always a chance Lou and company could look at that list of forwards beyond their top four (Martin, Rychel, Leipsic, Froese, etc.) and say “we’d rather protect both Marincin and Carrick and let Vegas choose from a group of largely unknowns (aside from Martin).”

Let’s be honest anyways, given the lack of talent that will be available, goaltenders Antoine Bibeau and Garret Sparks could be prime targets.

Vancouver Canucks

Protection List Plus Two Alternative List Options

We’ve included a 4-4-1 protection list in our second alternate, but it’s highly unlikely the Canucks need to save more than three defenders. Truth be told, basically 10 of 11 slots in the 7-3-1 scheme are accounted for, leaving one lone spot for a forward.

Protection List:

Despite the strong start, it seems veteran Ryan Miller is on his way out with an expiring contract. Vancouver needs to protect Markstrom and future in goal circles around top prospect Thatcher Demko. 2016-17 is simply about making sure Markstrom can handle a large workload. Demko will need support at the start of his career and injuries are always possible.

On the blue line, Edler, Tanev, and Gudbranson are the logical saves at this point. Some speculation has suggested that Vancouver may opt to trade Edler to continue the trend towards a younger team, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Up front, the Sedin twins and Eriksson own no-move clauses and require protection. The next three players that need protection are Bo Horvat, Brandon Sutter, and Jannik Hansen, leaving a single spot. Left available is Alex Burrows, Derek Dorsett, Sven Baertschi, Anton Rodin, and Markus Granlund (among others). Whoever impresses the most from Rodin, Beartschi, and Granlund in 2016-17 is the likely save. Our money is on Rodin at this point.

Alternative Protection List 1:

The only real player that could challenge Rodin for that final spot seems to be Sven Baertschi. He failed to pan out in Calgary, but he continues to show flashes of talent. If he can finally get it together with some consistency, he may force the Canucks hand.

Alternative Protection List 2:

We’re not exactly sure why Vancouver would want to save four defenseman. In this scenario, it’s a longshot hypothetical that Philip Larsen plays so well the Canucks feel the need to protect him. When it means leaving Sutter and Hansen available though, it would have to be one heck of a performance.

Washington Capitals