NHL Expansion Draft Potential Strategies for the Central Division
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
The Blackhawks will keep their core intact due to the group’s No Movement Clauses. Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Artem Anisimov, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Nicklas Hjalmarsson and Corey Crawford will stay.
The Blackhawks will go with a 7-3-1 format to fill out the rest of their protected players. Up front once the NMC’s are out of the way, the Hawks will be able to protect three extra forwards. Luckily Artemi Panarin and Nick Schmaltz are exempt from the draft.
The Blackhawks will likely protect Richard Panik and Ryan Hartman and will have to decide who else to protect out of Marcus Kruger, Dennis Rasmussen, Andrew Desjardins and Tomas Jurco. Kruger’s contract could come off the books as relief so he gets exposed. I decided to keep Jurco as the last player due to the price they paid to acquire him.
The contract extension to Jordan Tootoo allows the Hawks to meet exposure requirements. On the blueline, the decisions were made by the NMC’s. The Hawks risk losing Trevor van Riemsdyk and Ville Pokka and Michal Roszival and TVR both meet exposure requirements.
Goaltender Corey Crawford will be protected and Jeff Glass will be the goalie who meets requirements to exposure. The Hawks also risk losing backup Scott Darling, even though he is not under contract past July 1.
Vegas may select Darling to be their starter, which will be the best case scenario for the Hawks in keeping one of their younger defensemen.
PROTECTED: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Artem Anisimov, Tomas Jurco, Richard Panik, Ryan Hartman, Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Corey Crawford
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Marcus Kruger, Andrew Desjardins, Jordin Tootoo, Dennis Rasmussen, Johnny Oduya, Brian Campbell, Ville Pokka, Trevor Van Riemsdyk, Scott Darling
COLORADO AVALANCHE
The Avalanche will be undergoing a facelift in the off season when they likely move out one of or both of Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog. Either way, the club will protect those players to ensure they get a quality return. With the Avalanche needing to protect Erik Johnson and veteran Francois Beauchemin due to their NMC’s, the Avalanche decide to protect in the 8-1 format so they can protect four defensemen.
Up front, Duchene and Landeskog are definitely protected as well as superstar centre Nate MacKinnon. The Avalanche will protect one of Matt Nieto, Felix Girard, Carl Soderberg or Sven Andrighetto. Considering Nieto’s play since being claimed on waivers, he is my pick. The Avs hope Vegas takes a big contract of their hands exposing Carl Soderberg, Joe Colborne, Blake Comeau and Mikhail Grigorenko.
On the blueline Erik Johnson and Francois Beauchemin are protected, and that attributes to the group protecting four defensemen. Tyson Barrie‘s offensive dominance keeps him on the protect list and the club also protects Nikita Zadorov.
The goalies will be an interesting decision and Calvin Pickard‘s potential is worth more to the Avalanche then the often injured Semyon Varlamov.
PROTECTED: Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Nate MacKinnon, Matt Nieto, Tyson Barrie, Erik Johnson, Francois Beauchemin, Nikita Zadorov, Calvin Pickard
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Carl Soderberg, Joe Colborne, Blake Comeau, Mikhaeil Grigorenko, Rocco Grimaldi, Sven Andrighetto, Felix Girard, Eric Gélinas, Duncan Siemens, Patrick Wiercioch, Semyon Varlamov
DALLAS STARS
The Stars have had a season from hell, and they look toward the expansion draft where they won’t have to worry about losing anybody of note. The Stars have some good young defensemen in the system and they will likely lose one of them.
Despite that concern, the group still goes with the 7-3-1 format. Jason Spezza and Jamie Benn have no movement clauses and the Stars of course will protect Tyler Seguin. Cody Eakin, Brett Ritchie and Radek Faksa also make my list and that leaves one spot open to decide between Antoine Roussel, Mark McNeill, Gemel Smith and Russian project Valeri Nichuskhin.
Considering Nichuskhin’s potential, he gets protected even though he left the club to play in the KHL. Dallas would be better off keeping him and dealing him for something of value rather than losing him for nothing. Look for one of Adam Cracknell or Curtis McKenzie to get an extension to meet the requirements for exposure.
On the blueline, the only sure thing is John Klingberg. Esa Lindell‘s potential also gets him protected, leaving the Stars to decide between veteran Dan Hamhuis and youngsters Jamie Oleksiak, Stephen Johns, Patrik Nemeth, Mattias Backman and Ludwig Bystrom.
The organization seems to think highly of Stephen Johns, so he gets protected in my book. The Stars would love for Vegas to take on one of Antti Niemi or Kari Lehtonen, so it doesn’t matter which they protect.
Lehtonen’s contract is worth more, so he likely doesn’t move and he has played slightly better than Niemi the past two seasons. Lehtonen is protected.
PROTECTED: Jason Spezza, Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Cody Eakin, Brett Ritchie, Radek Fakta, Valeri Nichuskhin, John Klingberg, Stephen Johns, Esa Lindell, Kari Lehtonen
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Antoine Roussel, Curtis McKenzie, Adam Cracknell, Gemel Smith, Mark McNeill, Dan Hamhuis, Jamie Oleksiak, Patrik Nemeth, Greg Pateryn, Ludwig Bystrom, Antti Niemi
MINNESOTA WILD
The Minnesota Wild are going for a Stanley Cup this year, and it’s as good a time to go for it considering they will likely lose one of their better players in expansion.
The Wild could consider keeping four defensemen, but due to the offensive explosion of their forward group, it would be more beneficial to go with the 7-3-1 format. Up front, Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu and Jason Pominville hold NMC’s and that makes the next decisions even more difficult.
Ideally the Wild would expose Pominville, but his NMC and bounce back season will keep the player from considering waiving his clause. I have the Wild protecting Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle, Jason Zucker and Nino Niederreiter which means the Wild will have to expose newly signed Eric Staal and newly acquired Martin Hanzal.
On the back end, Ryan Suter is equipped with a NMC but due to his presence and importance he was a shoo-in. This is where it gets interesting. The Wild will likely keep Jared Spurgeon meaning they will have to decide between Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella and Matt Dumba.
Due to Dumba’s age and potential, he gets my nod ahead of the more proven Scandella and Brodin. Vezina Trophy leader Devan Dubnyk is protected and the Wild’s extension to Alex Stalock allows him to meet the exposure requirements.
The Wild will lose one of their better players in the expansion draft and they still may have to offer a prospect like Mario Lucia to Vegas to avoid taking either Jonas Brodin or Marco Scandella.
PROTECTED: Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville, Charlie Coyle, Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, Jason Zucker, Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, Matt Dumba, Devan Dubnyk
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Eric Staal, Martin Hansel, Chris Stewart, Erik Paula, Tyler Graovac, Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella, Gustav Olofsson, Darcy Kuemper
NASHVILLE PREDATORS
The Nashville Predators have been known for their incredible group of defensemen and that will play a big factor into how they play the expansion draft. I have the Preds protecting their top four defensemen, resulting in the exposure of some very good forwards.
With only goaltender Pekka Rinne sporting a NMC, the Preds board is wide open. Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson are the top four forwards so they get protected as well. Captain Mike Fisher will see his contract expire at season’s end, but he will likely resign after the expansion draft to stay in Nashville.
This leaves Craig Smith, Colin Wilson, Calle Jarnkrok and Colton Sissons exposed to name just a few. The deep back end will ensure the Predators keep Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and PK Subban protected. They keep their bread and butter with that core leaving the forward group to be depleted. Luckily for the Preds, their top four defensemen will keep the team competitive and with Kevin Fiala, Vladislav Kamenev and Yakov Trenin in the pipeline it is worth the risk.
Luckily the Predators don’t have to worry about exposing a good young goaltender with Juuse Saros exempt and Marek Mazanec meeting exposure requirements.
The Preds could also offer Vegas compensation to keep whichever forward the Golden Knights try to nab.
PROTECTED: Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi, PK Subban, Mattias Ekholm, Pekka Rinne
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Craig Smith, Calle Jarnkrok, Colin Wilson, Miikka Salomaki, Colton Sissons, Pontus Aberg, Anthony Bitetto, Petter Granberg, Marek Mazanec
ST. LOUIS BLUES
With a team as good as the Blues have been, you would think the expansion draft would hit them hard, but they shouldn’t worry about losing a player vital to their future success. The Blues will use the 7-3-1 format and may only have to concerned about losing KHL walkout Vladimir Sobotka.
Up front, the Blues may have the same list as many do protecting Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny, Alex Steen, Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera, David Perron and Patrik Berglund. This does leave Nail Yakupov, Dmitrij Jaskin and Magnus Paajarvi exposed, but neither player has really become the player many thought they would be.
After trading Kevin Shattenkirk, the Blues opened up a spot to protect Joel Edmundson along with sure things Alex Pietrangelo and Jay Bouwmeester. Colton Parayko is exempt. This exposes Carl Gunnarsson, Robert Bortuzzo and Petteri Lindbohm to the Golden Knights.
Jake Allen has found his game again, and that ensures he is protected. Backup Carter Hutton is exposed along with AHL starter Jordan Binnington, who could be worth a flyer for the Vegas Golden Knights.
All in all, the Blues won’t lose sleep over losing a player to the Vegas Golden Knights.
PROTECTED: Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny, Alex Steen, Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera, David Perron, Patrik Berglund, Alex Pietrbngelo, Jay Bouwmeester, Joel Edmundson, Jake Allen
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Nail Yakupov, Ryan Reaves, Dmitrij Jaskin, Kyle Brodziak, Ty Rattie, Magnus Paajarvi, Vladimir Sobotka, Carl Gunnarsson, Roberto Bortuzzo, Petteri Lindbohm, Carter Hutton, Jordan Binnington
WINNIPEG JETS
The Winnipeg Jets could very well have the best offensive team in the league next year on the back of their incredible youth movement led by Patrik Laine. The expansion draft will come down to one question; is Tyler Myers worth losing to keep some of the older prospects? I would have the Jets going with a 7-3-1 format so they don’t have to worry about losing Marko Dano, Andrew Copp or Joel Armia.
However on second glance, the Jets can cover losing one of those players up front because of the potential of Kyle Connor, Jack Roslovic, Brendan Lemieux etc. Therefore I have the Jets going with the 8-1 format. Up front the Jets protect Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little and Adam Lowry.
On the blueline, the Jets are slightly handcuffed because of Toby Enstrom‘s NMC. Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers round it out. Josh Morrissey will continue to develop, but it will be a while before Logan Stanley is able to shore up the “D” group.
In between the pipes, the Jets will protect Connor Hellebuyck who still has the best future despite an inconsistent season as the club’s starter.
Expect the Jets to dangle the idea of Vegas selecting Mathieu Perreault instead of one of their younger stars.
Next: NHL Player Rankings: Zetterberg Rises, Shattenkirk Falls
PROTECTED: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little, Adam Lowry, Toby Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers, Connor Hellebuyck
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Mathieu Perreault, Marko Dano, Joel Armia, Andrew Copp, Shawn Matthias, JC Lipon, Ivan Telegin, Mark Stuart, Ben Chiarot, Michael Hutchinson