Vegas Golden Knights Expansion Draft Strategy: Pacific Division
Now that the trade deadline has passed, many will be turning their attention to the upcoming expansion draft. There will be various mock drafts completed and the speculation about what each of the NHL’s current 30 teams will be a large discussion point.
The Vegas Golden Knights management will now be looking at the realistic possibilities about which player they will be able to select from each NHL team. We know the Golden Knights will be able to take compensation from teams in exchange for NOT selecting a particular player.
Another thing to keep an eye on are what I called “expansion draft make up transactions,” where a team will do one of two things. The first being, signing a player to an extension for the sole purpose of meeting the exposure requirements. The second thing we may see is players being placed on the big club’s roster to meet exposure requirements.
Each team will be able to protect either seven forward, three defensemen and a goaltender or eight different skaters and one goaltender. Each team will need to expose at least two forwards and one defenseman who are under contract for next season and played in 40 or more NHL games this current year, or a combination of 70 NHL games in the previous two seasons. Each team must also expose one goaltender who is under contract next year or one who is a restricted free agent at the end of the season. For more information, Cap Friendly has the rundown.
Without further ado, I will be taking a look at each NHL Division over the next couple of days and give my take on each team’s strategy going in. First up, we take a look at the Pacific Division which includes the Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks and the Vancouver Canucks.
ANAHEIM DUCKS
The Anaheim Ducks will have a difficult decision to make right from the beginning in deciding which format they will stick with.
Do they risk losing Jakob Silfverberg to Vegas in order to protect four of their young defensemen? Or do they try to convince Kevin Bieksa to waive his NMC is order to keep Cam Fowler, Sami Vatanen and Hampus Lindholm? Do they dig into their deep prospect pool in order to convince the Golden Knights to look past either Silfverberg or one of the aforementioned defensemen?
Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler and Kevin Bieksa all have No Movement Clause’s, so they need to be protected. Considering the Ducks have the likes of Brandon Montour, Shea Theodore and Jacob Larsson in the pipeline on the blueline, I would be willing to lose one of those premier defensemen.
However, I truly believe the Ducks could convince Kevin Bieksa to waive his no-trade clause with the likeliness that the player doesn’t draw any interest from the Golden Knights. This allows me to protect Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg, Andrew Cogliano and prospect Nicolas Kerdiles up front on the forward ranks. Antoine Vermette, Jared Boll, Logan Shaw and Chris Wagner then meet the requirements for exposure.
On the blueline, Fowler, Vatanen and Lindholm are protected and Bieksa waives his NMC. Josh Manson meets the exposure requirement.
Of course John Gibson is protected as the goaltender, and Dustin Tokarski‘s recent contract extension allows him to meet the exposure requirements.
PROTECTED: Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Corey Perry, Rickard Rakel, Jakob Silfverberg, Andrew Cogliano, Nicolas Kerdiles, Sami Vatanen, Hampus Lindholm, Cam Fowler, John Gibson
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Antoine Vermette, Nate Thompson, Patrick Eaves, Nick Sorensen, Logan Shaw, Jared Boll, Josh Manson, Simon Despres, Korbinian Holzer, Jonathan Bernier
ARIZONA COYOTES
The Arizona Coyotes are one club that will not be largely affected by the upcoming Expansion Draft. The majority of the Coyotes’ best players are exempt including Max Domi, Jakob Chychrun, Lawson Crowse, Christian Fischer, Christian Dvorak and Dylan Strome. Considering their youth movement, the Coyotes will not lose anybody of any significance.
The only player possessing a NMC is Alex Goligoski, so he will be automatically protected. The Coyotes will be a group that will also go with the 7-3-1 list. Up front the Coyotes stay loyal to Shane Doan and Radim Vrbata and protect them in the expansion draft despite their expiring contracts.
The rest of the forwards protected go with the youth movement and keep Tobias Rieder, Peter Holland, Anthony Duclair, Alexander Burmistrov, and Jordan Martinook. Jamie McGinn and Brad Richardson are left unprotected to meet exposure requirements.
On the blueline it was a very easy decision to keep Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Alex Goligoski and Connor Murphy. Luke Schenn and Kevin Connuaton meet the exposure requirements. In goal, Mike Smith‘s resurgent season keeps him in Arizona. If you would’ve asked me at the beginning of the year, I would have exposed Smith and his large contract in lieu of Louis Domingue who looked to be the goalie of the future.
Considering the vast amount of goaltenders that will be available, Domingue should slide through the cracks.
PROTECTED: Shane Doan, Tobias Rieder, Alexander Burmistrov, Peter Holland, Radim Vrbata, Anthony Duclair, Jordan Martinook, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Alex Goligoski, Connor Murphy, Mike Smith
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Brad Richardson, Jamie McGinn, Teemu Pulkkinen, Josh Jooris, Tyler Gaudet, Luke Schenn, Kevin Connauton, Jarred Tinordi, Louis Domingue
CALGARY FLAMES
The Calgary Flames have become one of the hottest teams in the league, and a lot of players have stepped up their games to ensure the Flames have some tough decisions to make. Newly acquired Michael Stone, Matt Bartkowski and Curtis Lazar all need to be protected, so something has got to give. The Flames will still have to go with the 7-3-1 format to protect as many of their players as they can.
The Flames don’t have a single NMC or NTC to worry about, but they have their sure things. Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Mikael Backlund are no brainers, but the remaining four forwards will be back and forth. Sam Bennett‘s potential keeps him protected, and the fact that the Flames moved a high pick to bring in Lazar assumes they will also protect him.
The decision then comes down to which two out of Troy Brouwer, Kris Versteeg, Lance Bouma, Hunter Shinkaruk, Micheal Ferland and Michael Frolik do you keep? I take recent performance over anything else and keep Micheal Ferland and Michael Frolik. On the blueline, the Flames have their big three and they won’t be going anywhere.
Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton and TJ Brodie are protected. The Flames roll the dice that they’ll be able to re-sign Michael Stone in free agency even if Vegas selects him. Brian Elliot’s second-half performance warrants his protection as the Flames will likely sign the goaltender to an extension as he has earned the number one job back. The Flames signed Tom McCollum to a two-year deal to ensure he would meet the exposure requirement for goaltenders.
The Flames will be leaving some decent prospects in Hunter Shinkaruk, Brett Kulak and Emile Poirier on the board, so they may be one of the teams that agrees to throw maybe a player like Daniel Pribyl or Kenney Morrison in a side-deal to get the Golden Knights to select a Matt Stajan or Troy Brouwer and free up some cash.
PROTECTED: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Michael Frolik, Mikael Backlund, Sam Bennett, Curtis Lazar, Micheal Ferland, Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, TJ Brodie, Brian Elliott
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Troy Brouwer, Matt Stajan, Lance Bouma, Kris Versteeg, Hunter Shinkaruk, Emile Poirier, Alex Chiasson, Michael Stone, Deryk Engelland, Brett Kulak, Chad Johnson
EDMONTON OILERS
The Edmonton Oilers are in a similar boat to the Arizona Coyotes in that their top players are exempt from the Expansion Draft. Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning and Jesse Puljujarvi are in that boat, but the Oilers will still have some tough decisions to make. The Oilers will also use the 7-3-1 format, but they need to sign somebody to a contract extension to meet the exposure requirements.
Don’t be surprised if the Oilers sign Anton Lander or Iiro Pakarinen to a contract extension to meet forward requirements along with Benoit Pouliot. The Oilers will certainly protect Milan Lucic (NMC), Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Patrick Maroon up front.
The decision comes down to which two of Mark Letestu, Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira, Tyler Pitlick, Anton Lander and newly acquired David Desharnais are more valuable to the club. Considering the team chemistry, I have the Oilers keeping the unsung Mark Letestu and Zack Kassian in lieu of possibly losing Jujhar Khaira or Tyler Pitlick.
On the blueline, the Oilers will have to protect Andrej Sekera due to his NMC, and will surely keep their top duo of Adam Larsson and Oscar Klefbom. Mark Fayne‘s awful contract does meet the exposure requirement.
The Oilers have made it known they want to re-sign Kris Russell, but may wait until free agency even if Vegas selects him. Cam Talbot is the team’s MVP and his NMC keeps him with the big club, but that means they will have to expose new backup Laurent Brossoit.
GM Peter Chiarelli will move hell and earth to try and talk the Golden Knights into taking Benoit Pouliot off their hands and look past prospects Griffin Reinhart, Jordan Oesterle, Dillon Simpson, Jujhar Khaira and Tyler Pitlick.
PROTECTED: Jordan Eberle, Milan Lucic, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mark Letestu, Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian, Leon Draisaitl, Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Cam Talbot
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Benoit Pouliot, David Desharnais, Anton Lander, Jujhar Khaira, Tyler Pitlick, Mark Fayne, Kris Russell, Griffin Reinhart, Dillon Simpson, Jordan Oesterle, Laurent Brossoit
LA KINGS
The Kings may miss the playoffs and a big reason for that is their budget kicking them in the arse. The Kings have too much dead weight in the Salary Cap world and will be praying the Golden Knights take one of those contracts off their hands.
The Kings don’t have any notable players making an impact on the NHL roster that are exempt, and may just use the expansion draft as way to shed some salary. Considering there is not a big need to worry about who they lose, the Kings are one of a few teams to use the 8-1 format to be able to protect four defensemen.
Up front, the Kings have to protect captain Anze Kopitar, and they will also protect Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson and leading scorer Jeff Carter. This means the Kings will be exposing Dustin Brown ($5.8m), Marian Gaborik ($4.8m) and Trevor Lewis ($2.0m), hoping a bigger name player will be beneficial for Vegas’ revenue in merchandise. Dustin Brown would be a solid ambassador for the new Franchise and likely their first star player. Win-win for both clubs.
The Kings have a solid “D” core, and they keep the group in tact protecting Drew Doughty, Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin and Brayden McNabb. Prospect Derek Forbort meets exposure requirements.
In goal, the Kings of course protect Jonathan Quick and his reasonable $5.8million cap hit. Ben Bishop will walk and take the biggest offer on the free agency market, which could also be from Vegas themselves. Jeff Zatkoff and Jack Campbell meet the exposure requirement at the position.
PROTECTED: Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson, Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty, Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin, Brayden McNabb, Jonathan Quick
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Marian Gaborik, Dustin Brown, Trevor Lewis, Kyle Clifford, Nic Dowd, Nick Shore, Derek Forbort, Matt Greene, Ben Bishop, Jeff Zatkoff
SAN JOSE SHARKS
The defending Western Conference Champions will surprisingly be a team better off than many when it comes to the expansion draft. With Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton on expiring contracts, they won’t be obligated to protect the players and will likely extend them once the draft has taken place.
The Sharks will likely need to extend Michael Haley’s contract by one year in order to meet exposure requirements. The Sharks will go with the 7-3-1 format even though that means they will likely lose a decent defenseman. Up front, the Sharks protect Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Joel Ward, Tomas Hertl, Jannik Hansen, Melker Karlsson and Chris Tierny.
They expose Mikkel Boedker who has struggled in year one with the Sharks, despite him picking up his game of late. Boedker’s presence on the list may deter the Golden Knights from looking at the blueline. The “D” group was difficult to bring down the three. Brent Burns and Marc-Edourd Vlasic are the no-brainers, but the final defenseman to protect was difficult to decide on.
I decided to keep the younger Justin Braun (30 years old) over Paul Martin (36 years old). This leaves not only Martin exposed, but also 26-year-old Brenden Dillon, 29-year-old David Schlemko and prospects Mirco Mueller and Dylan DeMelo.
In goal, Conn Smythe trophy candidate Martin Jones is easily protected and his new backup Aaron Dell meets the exposure requirements.
PROTECTED: Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Joel Ward, Tomas Hertl, Jannik Hansen, Melker Karlsson, Chris Tierny, Brent Burns, Marc-Edourd Vlasic, Justin Braun, Martin Jones
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, Mikkel Boedker, Michael Haley, Ryan Carpenter, Paul Martin, Brenden Dillon, David Schlemko, Mirco Mueller, Dylan DeMelo, Aaron Dell
VANCUVER CANUCKS
The Vancouver Canucks finally started to look toward rebuilding and moving out some contracts made it easier on them when the expansion draft rolls around. The players acquired for Alex Burrows and Jannik Hansen (Jonathan Dahlen, Nikolay Goldobin) are exempt from the draft, and that allows the club to protect more of their younger players.
The Canucks will go with the 7-3-1 format, and will need to protect their big Swedes as Daniel, and Henrik Sedin, and Loui Eriksson all have NMC’s. Up front the Canucks will need to protect four more forwards. Bo Horvat and Markus Granlund are surefire protected players and it’s likely the Canucks have seen enough from Sven Baertschi to warrant protecting him as well.
The final player comes down to second-line centre Brandon Sutter and grinder Derek Dorsett. Considering what the franchise paid to acquire Sutter, he gets the nod. To meet exposure requirements the Canucks will need to extend one of Brendan Gaunce, Joe Cramarossa or Michael Chaput, or play Reid Boucher in nine more NHL games.
On the blueline the Canucks protect Chris Tanev, Alex Edler and Erik Gudbranson. This exposes Luca Sbisa, which is likely the best price to pay.
Jacob Markstrom will be given the crease next season even if Ryan Miller returns. Richard Bachman meets to goalie exposure requirements with his contract going until the end of next season.
Next: NHL Expansion Draft: Central Division
PROTECTED: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Loui Eriksson, Sven Baertschi, Bo Horvat, Markus Granlund, Brandon Sutter, Alex Edler, Chris Tanev, Erik Gudbranson, Jacob Markstrom
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Derek Dorsett, Anton Rodin, Brendan Gaunce, Reid Boucher, Joe Cramarossa, Luca Sbisa, Philip Larsen, Andrey Pedan, Ryan Miller, Richard Bachman