Vegas Golden Knights Expansion Draft Strategy: Metropolitan Division
Now that the trade deadline has passed, many will be turning their attention to the upcoming expansion draft. There will be various mock drafts completed and the speculation about what each of the NHL’s current 30 teams will do in preparation for the expansion draft.
The Vegas Golden Knights management will now be looking at the realistic possibilities about which player they will be able to select from each NHL team. We know the Golden Knights will be able to take compensation from teams in exchange for NOT selecting a particular player.
Another thing to keep an eye on are what I called “expansion draft make up transactions,” where a team will do one of two things. The first being, signing a player to an extension for the sole purpose of meeting the exposure requirements. The second thing we may see is players being played on the big club’s roster to meet exposure requirements.
Each team will be able to protect either seven forward, three defensemen and a goaltender or eight different skaters and one goaltender. Each team will need to expose at least two forwards and one defenseman who are under contract for next season and played in 40 or more NHL games this current year, or a combination of 70 NHL games in the previous two seasons. Each team must also expose one goaltender who is under contract next year or one who is a restricted free agent at the end of the season. For more information, Cap Friendly has the rundown.
Without further ado, I will be taking a look at each NHL Division over the next couple of days and give my take on each team’s strategy going in. This time we take a look at the Metropolitan Division including the Carolina Hurricanes, Columbus Blue Jackets, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins and the Washington Capitals.
CAROLINA HURRICANES
The Hurricanes have not been able to go full rebuild, so their impact players are at risk for expansion, but the club shouldn’t have to worry about losing a really good player in expansion.
The Hurricanes don’t have many defensemen to worry about protecting, so they will go with a 7-3-1 format. Up front Jordan Staal is protected by his NMC, and Jeff Skinner and Victor Rask are surefire to be protected. Elias Lindholm and Teuvo Teravainen are you and productive enough to warrant protection as well leaving two spots. The Canes will likely protect prospect Phil Di Giuseppe and will need to decide between Lee Stempniak, Joakim Norstrom, Andrej Nestrasil and Brock McGinn for the final forward to be protected. I have the canes protecting Brock McGinn.
On defense, the Canes have most of their starting defensemen on the exemption list with Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin and Jaccob Slavin not needing to be protected. All-Star Justin Faulk is the obvious selection, and Trevor Carrick is a prospect that deserves to be considered. The final spot will come down to Ryan Murphy or Klas Dahlbeck. While both players have struggled, Murphy’s draft pedigree gets him protected. The Canes will have to either sign Matt Tennyson or Klas Dahlbeck to an extension to meet exposure requirements, or play Tennyson for six regular season games.
In goal, Cam Ward is worth more to the franchise than Eddie Lack, so he gets protected.
PROTECTED: Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Teuvo Teravainen, Phil Di Giuseppe, Brock McGinn, Justin Faulk, Ryan Murphy, Trevor Carrick, Cam Ward
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Lee Stempniak, Andrej Nestrasil, Joakim Nordstrom, Brendan Woods, Klas Dahlbeck, Eddie Lack, Daniel Altshuller
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
The Blue Jackets are in the midst of a franchise best season, and that has brought more attention to their organization. The Blue Jackets have a solid amount of offence that would be target if they wanted to keep four defensemen so they will go with a 7-3-1 format.
Up front, the Jackets need to protect Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno, and Scott Hartnell due to their NMC’s. The remaining four spots are already spoken for with Brandon Saad, Cam Atkinson, Boone Jenner and Alexander Wennberg being protected. That forces the Jackets to expose Matt Calvert, William Karlsson, Josh Anderson and Sam Gagner in expansion.
On the blueline, the Jackets will definitely protect Seth Jones and David Savard but will need to decide between 2012 2nd overall pick Ryan Murray and veteran defenseman Jack Johnson. Murray may have had a tough start to his career but he’s a safer bet to stay with the club, exposing Jack Johnson.
Sergei Bobrovsky is set with his no movement clause and being a Vezina Trophy candidate. Young goaltender Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg will be exposed.
The Jackets may try to pursuade the Vegas Golden Knights from selecting Johnson by offering future considerations or a draft pick.
PROTECTED: Brandon Saad, Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell, Cam Atkinson, Boone Jenner, Alexander Wennberg, Seth Jones, David Savard, Ryan Murray, Sergei Bobrovsky
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Matt Calvert, William Karlsson, Josh Anderson, Daniel Zaar, Sam Gagner, Lukas Sedlak, Jack Johnson, Scott Harrington, Joonas Korpisalo, Anton Forsberg
NEW JERSEY DEVILS
The Devils are going through a bit of an identity crisis and their GM is not happy with the team’s performance this season. Heading into the expansion draft, I considered going with the 8-1 format knowing there were only four forwards that absolutely NEED to be protected, but the “D” group didn’t warrant keeping four d-men so the Devils go with 7-3-1.
Up front the four forwards that were definites to be protected are Taylor Hall, Travis Zajac, Adam Henrique and Kyle Palmieri. Mike Cammalleri has been a healthy scratch, but he still has value on a team that has troubles scoring so he also gets protected. The final two spots go to Devante Smith-Pelly and waiver claim Stefan Noesen. This leaves Jacob Josefsen, Beau Bennett and prospect Petr Straka exposed. The Devils will need to extend both Josefsen and Bennett to meet exposure requirements.
Captain Andy Greene may be aging and declining in production, but he is still the go-to guy on the back end so he gets protected. The Devils then need to decide if they should go with youth and protect Damon Severson and Jon Merrill or go with experience and go with Ben Lovejoy and John Moore. Considering youth is what Vegas will look for, the Devils protect the formers.
Cory Schneider is the easy choice for protection in between the pipes, and prospect goaltender Scott Wedgewood meets to exposure requirements. Also wouldn’t be surprised if Keith Kinkaid is given another contract.
PROTECTED: Taylor Hall, Travis Zajac, Mike Cammalleri, Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique, Devante Smith-Pelly, Stefan Noesen, Andy Greene, Jon Merrill, Damon Severson, Cory Schneider
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Jacob Josefsen, Beau Bennett, Petr Straka, Ben Lovejoy, John Moore, Dalton Prout, Viktor Look, Seth Helgesson, Scott Wedgewood
NEW YORK ISLANDERS
The Islanders are back in a playoff race after looking like they would bottom out early in the season. A playoff birth is important because the Isles will be losing a decent member of their future and current club in the upcoming expansion draft. It’s likely that the Isles will lose a good young d-man as they decide going with a 7-3-1 format is the better choice.
John Tavares and Andrew Ladd are protected by their NMC’s. Anders Lee, Brock Nelson and Josh Bailey are protected for their offensive abilities. Prior to the firing of Jack Capuano it looked like the Isles would risk Ryan Strome being taken by Vegas, but he has played much better since Doug Weight replaced Capuano. The final spot comes down to Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, Jason Chimera, Nikolai Kulemin, and Shane Prince. Considering the high price tags and aging factors, Cizikas makes the most sense to protect as he is a fan favourite and plays his role well.
Johnny Boychuk also holds a no movement clause so he is automatically protected. The tough part comes next. With only two spots left open, the Islanders have to choose two out of Travis Hamonic, Nick Leddy, Calvin de Haan, Thomas Hickey, Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech. Nick Leddy is the obvious choice but I struggled to make the next decision. In the end Travis Hamonic’s experience gets him protected, but the Isles may lose one of Pulock or Pelech, making this a very tough expansion draft on them.
In goal the Islanders have made their choice, and Thomas Greiss is their guy. They risk losing backup JF Berube, but the Golden Knights may rid them of Jaroslav Halak‘s contract as a favour. The Isles may have to send a good prospect like Devon Toews or Michael Dal Colle to convince the Golden Knights to do such a thing.
PROTECTED: John Tavares, Andrew Ladd, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey, Ryan Strome, Casey Cizikas, Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy, Travis Hamonic, Thomas Greiss
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Nikolai Kulemin, Cal Clutterbuck, Jason Chimera, Shane Prince, Thomas Hickey, Calvin de Haan, Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, Jaroslav Halak, JF Berube
NEW YORK RANGERS
The Rangers are one of the top offensive groups with a strong four-line scoring machine up front and a solid top four on the back end. Surprisingly, the Rangers will be able to keep their best players in the expansion draft with the only concern being losing a good supporting cast member. They go with a 7-3-1 format as well.
In a straight line, it was easy to make the decisions for who to protect for forwards. Rick Nash, Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, JT Miller, Mika Zibanejad, and Kevin Hayes are the seven forwards protected. This does leave Michael Grabner, Brandon Pirri, Jesper Fast, Matt Puempel and Oscar Lindberg exposed however. The Rangers will meet the exposure requirements if Puempel plays five more NHL games, which is likely.
On the blueline most of the decisions were made up for me, as both Marc Staal and Dan Girardi carry NMC’s. The final spot was a given to captain Ryan McDonagh. Vegas could be interested in veteran Kevin Klein or the breakout star of the Rangers’ season Nick Holden.
The Rangers are married to Henrik Lundqvist, and his NMC ensures his stay on the big apple. While Antti Raanta has stolen the show this year, it will be interesting to see if his play has been noticed by Vegas. He’s a solid choice for the Golden Knights to be their starter.
PROTECTED: Rick Nash, Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, JT Miller, Mika Zibanejad, Kevin Hayes, Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh, Henrik Lundqvist
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Michael Grabner, Brandon Pirri, Jesper Fast, Matt Puempel, Oscar Lindberg, Kevin Klein, Brendan Smith, Nick Holden, Adam Clendening, Antti Raanta
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
The Flyers helped out the Tampa Bay Lightning in acquiring Valterri Filppula and his NMC, and it’s easy to see why. The Flyers know which players they’ll need to protect and they had an open spot. The Flyers go with a 7-3-1 format.
Up front, Filppula’s NMC keeps him protected as well as captain Claude Giroux. Jakob Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier and leading goal-scorer Wayne Simmonds also get the nod. The final spot comes down to Scott Laughton, Nick Cousins, Matt Read and Michael Raffl. Considering Read and Raffl are struggling, the Flyers go with youth and protect Laughton.
With Ivan Provorov exempt and a wealth of young defensemen on the way in Robert Hagg, Travis Sanheim and Samuel Morin, the Flyers don’t need to worry about protecting veterans. The Flyers will protect Shayne Gostibehere, Radio Gudas and Brandon Manning, exposing the ridiculously overpriced Andrew MacDonald.
Many were surprised when the Flyers extended Michal Neuvirth‘s contract, but it allows them to expose him in the expansion draft while protecting goalie prospect Anthony Stolarz. Stolarz is the future starter, and his protection is worth it.
PROTECTED: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Valterri Filppula, Sean Couturier, Wayne Simmonds, Scott Laughton, Radko Gudas, Shayne Gostibehere, Brandon Manning, Anthony Stolarz
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Matt Read, Dale Weise, Michael Rafft, Taylor Leier, Nick Cousins, PE Bellemare, Andrew MacDonald, Michael Del Zotto, Jesper Pettersson, Michal Neuvirth
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
The Pittsburgh Penguins have some big decisions to make, and one likely results in a buyout on long time starter Marc-Andre Fleury to avoid losing Stanley Cup winning goaltender Matt Murray for nothing. The Pens also need to weigh the pros and cons on which format to use. If I’m Jim Rutherford, I look at my youth up and coming in the forward ranks, and go with the 8-1 format.
The big three are definitely being protected as Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby and Phil Kessel use their NMC’s to stay. Considering I’m going with only four forwards there was only one more spot up front and Patric Hornqvist is the last forward spot available. This does leave Carl Hagelin, Nick Bonino, Oskar Sundqvist, Tom Kuhnackl, Bryan Rust etc. exposed. You’ll understand soon why they were worth exposing.
On defense Kris Letang is an obvious choice as well and he also boasts a NMC. The emergence of Justin Schultz warrants his protection and the Penguins need to decide on two of the following; Olli Maatta, Trevor Daley, Brian Dumoulin, and Ian Cole. Although Maatta is injury prone, he is still a solid young defenseman who has a ton of value on the trade market and could be used in a package for the Penguins to go after Matt Duchene. Brian Dumoulin is my final pick for protection as his game as vastly improved year after year.
In between the pipes, it’s the worst kept secret that Matt Murray will be protected, and Marc-Andre Fleury will either waive his NMC or have his contract bought out. If he doesn’t waive his NMC, the Pens have to scramble and find a goaltender to meet exposure requirements.
PROTECTED: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist, Phil Kessel, Kris Letang, Olli Maatta, Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, Matt Murray
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Carl Hagelin, Nick Bonino, Tom Kuhnackl, Bryan Rust, Oskar Sundqvist, Scott Wilson, Trevor Daley, Ian Cole, Derrick Pouliot, Marc-Andre Fleury
WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Last but not least, we have the league-leading Capitals. The best team in the league also has the issue of knowing their former GM is the current GM of the expansion club. George McPhee knows this franchise more than any other team, so the Caps won’t get away with hiding a best-kept secret. They will go with a 7-3-1 format.
Considering the Caps have a lot of expiring contracts, they will be able to protect more forwards with potential in favour of expiring contracts like Justin Williams and TJ Oshie. Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson and Evgeny Kuznetsov are sure things to be protected. The final three will definitely include Andre Burakovsky and Tom Wilson to protect the Caps youth. The last spot will come down to Brett Connolly, Lars Eller and Jay Beagle. Considering Eller and Beagle meet exposure requirements, Connolly gets protected.
Luckily Karl Alzner has an expiring contract so the Capitals don’t have to worry about protecting him and they can look to re-sign him in free agency. This allows the Caps to protect Matt Niskanen, John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov. Brooks Orpik has a big enough contract to scare off the Golden Knights.
In goal Braden Holtby could acquire his second consecutive Vezina Trophy, so he is the obvious selection for protection. This does expose Philip Grubauer and many believe that he will be targeted by his former GM.
PROTECTED: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetosv, Andre Burakovsky, Tom Wilson, Brett Connolly, Matt Niskanen, John Carlson, Dmitry Orlov, Braden Holtby
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Lars Eller, Chandler Stephenson, Jay Beagle, Stanislav Galiev, Brooks Orpik, Nate Schmidt, Taylor Chorney, Philip Grubauer