NHL Expansion Draft Strategy: Atlantic Division
Now that the trade deadline has passed, many will be turning their attention to the upcoming expansion draft. There will be various mock drafts completed and the speculation about what each of the NHL’s current 30 teams will be a large discussion point.
The Vegas Golden Knights management will now be looking at the realistic possibilities about which player they will be able to select from each NHL team. We know the Golden Knights will be able to take compensation from teams in exchange for NOT selecting a particular player.
Another thing to keep an eye on are what I called “expansion draft make up transactions,” where a team will do one of two things. The first being, signing a player to an extension for the sole purpose of meeting the exposure requirements. The second thing we may see is players being placed on the big club’s roster to meet exposure requirements.
Each team will be able to protect either seven forward, three defensemen and a goaltender or eight different skaters and one goaltender. Each team will need to expose at least two forwards and one defenseman who are under contract for next season and played in 40 or more NHL games this current year, or a combination of 70 NHL games in the previous two seasons. Each team must also expose one goaltender who is under contract next year or one who is a restricted free agent at the end of the season. For more information, Cap Friendly has the rundown.
Without further ado, I will be taking a look at each NHL Division over the next couple of days and give my take on each team’s strategy going in. This time we take a look at the Atlantic Division including the Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Florida Panthers, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs.
BOSTON BRUINS
The Boston Bruins won’t have to worry as much as some other teams about the player they are going to lose to the Vegas Golden Knights. The Bruins have David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, David Backes and Zdeno Chara on NMC’s, and will have more than enough spots available to keep their best players protected.
Up front, the Bruins will have four forward spots open on the protected list. Brad Marchand, Ryan Spooner and David Pastrnak are going to be protected, and the only decision will be who they will keep out of Matt Beleskey, Jimmy Hayes and Riley Nash. Considering Nash is an easy player to replace and Jimmy Hayes has regressed, I protected Beleskey.
On the blueline, the Bruins may want to keep one of Adam McQuiad or Kevan Miller, but considering they are the types of defencemen the league is making irrelevant, they would be better off protecting Torey Krug and either prospect Linus Arnesson or Colin Miller. Miller is playing a top six role for the club and Arnesson hasn’t knocked anybody’s socks off.
In goal, Tuukka Rask is obviously the goaltender the team will protect, leaving struggling but still capable prospect goalie Malcolm Subban exposed.
PROTECTED: David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, David Backes, Brad Marchand, Matt Beleskey, Ryan Spooner, David Pastrnak, Zdeno Chara, Torey Krug, Colin Miller, Tuukka Rask
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Jimmy Hayes, Riley Nash, Dominic Moore, Brian Ferlin, Tim Schaller, Adam McQuaid, Kevan Miller, Linus Arnesson, Joe Morrow, Anton Khudobin, Malcolm Subban
BUFFALO SABRES
The Buffalo Sabres will likely find themselves out of the playoff picture again this year, but they have a good foundation to take a run next year, and they won’t lose an important part of their group.
The Sabres will go with the 7-3-1 format and that should allow them to keep most of their good players. Up front I have the Sabres certainly protecting Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Evander Kane, Marcus Foligno and Tyler Ennis. William Carrier is young and has potential so he also gets protected. The final forward will come down to Zemgus Girgensons and Johan Larsson. Larsson has been a good two-way player so he has more value then Girgensons.
On the blueline, the only obvious protection is that of Rasmus Ristolainen. I have the Sabres also protecting the underrated Jake McCabe. The final protected d-man comes down to the overpriced Zach Bogosian, the struggling Josh Gorges and one of unrestricted Cody Franson and Dmitry Kulikov. Regardless of Bogosian’s price, he is the most likely to make an impact the next few seasons.
In net, the Sabres risk losing surprising backup Anders Nilsson and prospect Linus Ullmark in favour of starter Robin Lehner.
PROTECTED: Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Evander Kane, Marcus Foligno, Tyler Ennis, William Carrier, Johan Larsson, Rasmus Ristolainen, Zach Bogosian, Jake McCabe, Robin Lehner
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Matt Moulson, Zemgus Girgensons, Nicolas Deslauriers, Derek Grant, Dmitry Kulikov, Josh Gorges, Justin Falk, Anders Nilsson, Linus Ullmark
DETROIT RED WINGS
The Detroit Red Wings will see their playoff streak end this season, and they will also lose a player of importance come the NHL Expansion Draft. The good news is the Golden Knights may give the team cap relief by taking on one of their bigger contracts.
The Red Wings will consider going with the 8-1 format, but ultimately will protect more players in using the 7-3-1 format. Frans Nielsen has a NMC so he gets protected, while Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, and Justin Abdelkader are the veterans protected. The final two spots go to the future of the club in protecting Anthony Mantha and Andreas Athanasiou. This leaves Darren Helmand Riley Sheahan exposed.
On the blueline, the Red Wings will have to make tough decisions. Danny DeKeyser and Jonathan Ericsson are my sure things, but the group will need to decide what to do with Niklas Kronwall and Mike Green. If they feel they can get a return for these players post-expansion they may be more inclined to protect one of those players in favour of their young defensemen. Ryan Sproul, Xavier Ouellet and Nick Jensen likely have more interest from Vegas, so I have the Red Wings protecting the most experienced in Ouellet.
In goal they also have a difficult decision. Petr Mrazek is the goalie of the future and despite Jimmy Howard‘s bounce back season, his cap hit will force the Wings to expose him.
PROTECTED: Henrik Zetterberg, Frans Nielsen, Gustav Nyquist, Justin Abdelkader, Tomas Tatar, Anthony Mantra, Andreas Athanasiou, Danny DeKeyser, Jonathan Ericsson, Xavier Ouellet, Petr Mrazek
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Darren Helm, Riley Sheahan, Martin Frk, Luke Glendening, Mike Green, Niklas Kronwall, Ryan Sproul, Nick Jensen, Dylan McIlrath, Jimmy Howard
FLORIDA PANTHERS
The Florida Panthers will be able to protect most of their important core players when the expansion draft rolls around, but they will need to make some big decisions. More is always better to protect so the Panthers also keep 7-3-1.
Up front, the Cats will protect their youth in Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau, Reilly Smith and Jon Marchessault. They protect Jaromir Jagr for respect even though he has an expiring contract. The final spot will come down to either Jussi Jokinen, captain Derek MacKenzie or struggling Nick Bjugstad. Bjugstad is not living up to his contract so they will expose him and MacKenzie is likely not of interest to the Vegas Golden Knights. My last forward pick is Jokinen.
On the blueline, the Panthers have to protect Keith Yandle due to his NMC and Aaron Ekblad is their future captain so he of course is also protected. This is where it gets interesting; the Panthers will have to decide between Jason Demers, Mark Pysyk and Alex Petrovic. Considering Demers’ is a bonafide top four d-man you would think he is the obvious selection, but I go with Mark Pysyk’s potential instead.
In between the pipes, the Panthers protect James Reimer over veteran Roberto Luongo in hopes that Vegas will look past Lou’s big contract and increase in age.
PROTECTED: Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, Jussi Jokinen, Jaromir Jagr, Reilly Smith, Jonathan Huberdeau, Jon Marchessault, Keith Yandle, Mark Pysyk, Aaron Ekblad, James Reimer
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Nick Bjugstad, Thomas Vanek, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Mike Sgarbossa, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Roberto Luongo, Reto Berra
MONTREAL CANADIENS
The Habs do not have a young core, so there’s a chance they will lose a decent player, but hopefully one that will aid them in cap relief come expansion time. The Habs will also go with the 7-3-1 format.
Up front, Alexander Radulov, Max Pacioretty, Andrew Shaw, Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk and Philip Danault are the for sures to be protected, leaving only one spot open. The Habs will likely expose the declining Tomas Plekanec and will use their final protection spot to keep either Paul Byron, Torrey Mitchell, Charles Hudon or Daniel Carr. Considering Byron’s utility game, he gets the final spot.
On the blueline, the Habs have to protect Jeff Petry due to his NMC, and they will definitely protect Shea Weber despite his large contract. Andrei Markov will be exposed, but he’s a lifer and will sign with Montreal in the off season if he decides to play another season. The final spot comes down to Alexei Emelin, Nathan Beaulieu and the newly acquired Brandon Davidson, Jordie Benn, or Nikita Nesterov. Considering Beaulieu’s breakout year, he gets the final protection spot.
Carey Price is obviously not going anywhere. The Habs extended backup Al Montoya to ensure they meet the exposure requirements.
PROTECTED: Alexander Radulov, Max Pacioretty, Andrew Shaw, Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk, Paul Byron, Philip Danault, Shea Weber, Jeff Petry, Nathan Beaulieu, Carey Price
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Tomas Plekanec, Dwight King, Torrey Mitchell, Charles Hudon, Stefan Matteau, Jacob de la Rose, Daniel Carr, Andrei Markov, Alexei Emelin, Brandon Davidson, Jordie Benn, Nikita Nesterov, Al Montoya
OTTAWA SENATORS
The Sens are having a bounce back season, and their GM believes they can actually make a long run in the playoffs. It may come at a cost, as they will possibly lose a really good player.
The Sens will go with a 7-3-1 format and one player they expose may surprise. Up front the Sens will definitely protect Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Mark Stone, Kyle Turris and Ryan Dzingel. I can see the Senators exposing the overpaid Bobby Ryan in hopes they can get the cap relief by exposing him. That leaves two spots open for Alex Burrows, Tommy Wingels, Zack Smith, JG Pageau and Clarke MacArthur. Although Burrows is newly acquired, it makes more sense for them to protect Smith and Pageau.
On the blueline they have to protect Dion Phaneuf and of course they’ll protect their captain Erik Karlsson so the final spot comes down to either Marc Methot or Cody Ceci. Ceci’s only 23 years old and may become more than he is right now so he gets protected.
Craig Anderson continues to defy the limits of his age and off ice distractions, and he may still have a few good years left in him, so he is protected. The Sens may want to re-sign Condon as backup, but they’ll wait until July 1. Andrew Hammond is a non factor.
PROTECTED: Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Mark Stone, Kyle Turris, Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Dzingel, Dion Phaneuf, Erik Karlsson, Cody Ceci, Craig Anderson
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Clarke MacArthur, Bobby Ryan, Alexandre Burrows, Tommy Wingels, Tom Pyatt, Marc Methot, Mark Borowiecki, Chris Wideman, Andrew Hammond, Mike Condon
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Before the trade deadline, it looked like the Lightning would have a lot of troubles come expansion draft time. Instead, Steve Yzerman was able to move Valterri Filppula and his NMC to ensure he can protect an extra player. The team goes with a 7-3-1 format.
Up front, Steven Stamkos and Ryan Callahan are automatically protected by their no movement clauses, leaving five more spots open. The Lightning will protect Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Jonathan Drouin. That still leaves Vladislav Namestnikov, JT Brown and Cedric Paquette unprotected, but moving Filpuula allowed for them to not have to chose between Killorn, Johnson and Palat.
On the blueline Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman are certainly going to be protected, but the rest of the blue liners don’t inspire much. The Lightning will likely feel fine exposing overpriced Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn leaving the final decision between Andrej Sustr and prospects Slater Koekkoek, Jake Dotchin and Dylan Blujus. Considering Dotchin is taking a regular shift in the NHL, he gets the final spot.
After trading Ben Bishop, this became Andrei Vasilevskiy‘s team, and he will be protected. Kirsters Gudlevskis meets the exposure requirements being a restricted free agent.
PROTECTED: Steven Stamkos, Ryan Callahan, Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin, Anton Stralman, Victor Hedman, Jake Dotchin, Andrei Vasilevskiy
NOTABLE PROTECTED: Vladislav Namestnikov, JT Brown, Cedric Paquette, Tye McGinn, Greg McKegg, Jason Garrison, Braydon Coburn, Dylan Blujus, Andrej Sustr, Slater Koekkoek, Kirsters Gudlevskis
The Maple Leafs will sleep well the night before the expansion draft knowing that they won’t be losing a player that will be vital to their team going forward. With most of their impact players being exempt, the Maple Leafs won’t have to worry about losing anybody of importance.
Going with a 7-3-1 format, the Leafs will certainly protect Name Kadri, James Van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak up front. The Leafs will protect some youth up front with them also protecting Connor Brown and Kerby Rachel leaving two spots left open. Leo Komarov‘s veteran presence keeps him around and I have them protecting Brian Boyle as well with an intent to sign him before free agency opens.
On the back end the Leafs will surely protect Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner, leaving one spot open. They will need to decide between veterans Roman Polak and Matt Hunwick or protecting a youthful defender like Martin Marincin, Connor Carrick or Alexey Marchenko. I have them protecting Carrick for his potential.
In goal the Leafs will protect Fredrik Andersen risking the chance that Vegas looks at one of Antoine Bibeau or Garret Sparks.
Next: Stan Bowman Should be the GM of the year
PROTECTED: Nazem Kadri, James Van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, Brian Boyle, Kerby Rychel, Connor Brown, Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, Connor Carrick, Fredrik Andersen
NOTABLE EXPOSED: Joffrey Lupul, Matt Martin, Brendan Leipsic, Seth Griffith, Josh Leivo, Roman Polak, Martin Marincin, Alexey Marchenko, Matt Hunwick, Curtis McElhinney, Antoine Bibeau