Buffalo Sabres Must Solve The Enigma Of Robin Lehner

Buffalo Sabres goaltender Robin Lehner is quite the enigma. The 2017-18 season should show what kind of goalie he really is.

The Buffalo Sabres are having an offseason full of change. They have a new head coach and a new general manager. These changes should be very refreshing, as the previous regime of Dan Bylsma and Tim Murray failed to deliver. However, one thing that will be constant for them is their starting goaltender. Restricted free agent goaltender Robin Lehner signed a one-year deal worth $4 million.

For the first time in his career, the goaltender showed what he can do as a full-time starter. Lehner, who’s prone to injury and durability issues, played in a career high 59 games, including 58 starts. While he only had 23 wins, this is more of a product of a terrible team around him than anything else. Among goalies with at least 30 games played, Lehner finished 10th in save percentage. However, his goals against average was high at 2.68. It ranked 27th out of the 41 goalies with at least 30 games played.

Per hour, Lehner faced over 33 shots against. He ranked third in overall shots faced despite finishing tied for 14th in games. For all intents and purposes, Lehner did his job very well. He kept the Sabres in many games they didn’t deserve to be in. That’s all you can ask from your goaltender.

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However, Buffalo needs to be careful when evaluating their starting goalie. Despite what you might think, Lehner didn’t face many dangerous shots. A deeper dive into his numbers suggests he’s above average on low danger shots, but below average everywhere else. In fact, you could argue his backup, Chad Johnson, is better than him.

With a better blue line and team in front of him in 2016-17, Lehner’s gamble on himself could pay off big time. A better defense should mean he faces fewer shots against. The Sabres will ice a more balanced team than they did last season. Lehner will probably have a great year if he stays healthy, at least on paper. This could put him in line for a pretty nice pay raise, one that might not necessarily be deserved.

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One can’t blame the Sabres for being slow to invest a lot of money in Lehner when he’s only been a true starting goalie for one year. He passes the eye test, but his underlying numbers are a bit concerning. Goalies are very hard to figure out, but Buffalo better be sure of what they’re investing in next offseason.

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