Colorado Avalanche: 2017 Season Preview, Predictions
After a nightmare 2016-17 season, the rebuild is officially starting for the Colorado Avalanche.
It’s hard to believe how quickly the Colorado Avalanche have fallen. Just three years ago, they were the toast of the NHL. The Avalanche had just made the playoffs against all odds and nearly beat the Minnesota Wild in the first round. Everyone thought their future was bright. Three years later, their future couldn’t be more uncertain.
How bad were the Avalanche last season? Their 48 points (over 82 games) would not have been enough to make the playoffs in the 2012-13 lockout shortened season. They finished 21 points behind the second worst team in the NHL, the Vancouver Canucks. For a team that had 82 points the previous season, their decent into the lowest depths of the NHL standings was surprising.
The Avalanche seem prepared to rebuild this season. This likely means the season will feature a lot of growing pains. However, it’s for the best. Looking at the Avalanche’s depth, a rebuild is long overdue. Perhaps no NHL team needs one more than them. With a lot of young players on their roster, at least there will be fresh faces for Avalanche fans to root for moving forward.
This could be a defining season for general manager Joe Sakic and head coach Jared Bednar. The former has witnessed his team decline in three consecutive seasons following their last postseason appearance. Sakic won the battle against Patrick Roy, but he could be the next guy to go.
Bednar must prove he’s the right guy for the job moving forward. Especially with a tempting head coach option in the same state. The roster must fight for their respective spots as the Avalanche attempt to find out who the keepers are and who’s expendable. It’s a critical season for everyone involved.
Offseason Review
The Colorado Avalanche’s offseason has been a relatively quiet one. Their biggest move they made was acquiring Colin Wilson from the Nashville Predators for a 2019 fourth round pick. He had 35 points in 70 games during the regular season, averaging just under 15 minutes per game. Wilson could be future trade bait, especially if he can get back to being a 40 point player.
Re-signing Sven Andrighetto was a very smart move. The trade deadline acquisition was given significant playing time with Nathan MacKinnon and he took advantage of it. With the Avalanche, Andrighetto put up 16 points in 19 games. It’s obviously a small sample size, but he’s a skilled player on a roster that needs skill.
Mark Barbeiro and Matt Nieto are two waiver claims who earned spots moving forward by performing. Both are signed to cheap deals, but should be worthy place holders for their prospects. Barbeiro might be a long-term piece with the Avalanche’s uncertain future on the blue line. However, Nieto is a quality fourth line forward, but nothing else.
After losing Calvin Pickard to the Vegas Golden Knights, the Avalanche signed veteran goaltender Jonathan Bernier to replace him. Semyon Varlamov is still the likely starter, but Bernier should prove to be a valuable backup for them. Due to his one-year deal, he might even fetch them a draft pick at the trade deadline.
Colorado has been a bit of a popular NCAA free agent destination. They added both Alex Kerfoot from Harvard and Dominic Toninato. Considering both signed with the Avalanche and Colorado’s awful forward depth, expect both to get chances at earning NHL roster spots.
The Avalanche’s offseason is more about what didn’t happen than what did happen. A Matt Duchene trade was all but assumed, and here we are entering September with him still on the roster. Captain Gabriel Landeskog also faced trade rumors, but is still on the team.
Forwards
As you might expect from a team that averaged just over two goals a game last season, the Colorado Avalanche’s forward depth is pretty shallow. There’s talent there, but it drops off very quickly. Hopefully the full-time addition of Tyson Jost will add some much needed scoring depth. But it’s still pretty ugly.
Projected Forward Lines
Line combinations via Daily Faceoff, roster via Cap Friendly.
Andrighetto – MacKinnon – Duchene
Landeskog – Jost – Mikko Rantanen
Nail Yakupov – J.T. Compher – Wilson
Matthew Nieto – Carl Soderberg – Blake Comeau
Extra forward candidates: Kerfoot, Toninato, Joe Colborne
On the rise: J.C. Beaudin, Julien Nantel
The top two lines actually aren’t half bad. Granted, things will be different if Duchene and/or Landeskog are traded. Hopefully both can rebound from down years to rebuild their trade value because the Avalanche need to get top prospects for them. There’s enough players fighting for roster spots that they’d be fine even if they trade both.
However, you can see the talent drops off pretty quickly once you look past the second line. Yakupov is a reclamation project at this point. He’s skilled but he hasn’t stuck in the NHL yet. This could be Yakupov’s last chance. Luckily for him, the Avalanche are a team who can give him the necessary ice time for him to develop.
Frankly, Colorado would be wise to send guys who they know aren’t a part of their future down to the minors. They have young players who are deserving of an extended look in the NHL. The Avalanche have nothing to lose by giving Kerfoot, Toninato and Nantel chances to play. It’s more important they figure out what they have in their young players than give playing time to Soderberg, Colborne and Comeau.
Defensemen
It’s admittedly difficult to project how the Colorado Avalanche blue line will look in 2017-18. This is what happens when your third best defenseman hasn’t signed a contract yet. But even if Nikita Zadorov signs, the Avalanche will only have four defensemen on their NHL roster. So the remaining two or three spots will either be PTOs or prospects.
Projected Defensive Pairings
Zadorov – Erik Johnson
Barbeiro – Tyson Barrie
Chris Bigras – Anton Lindholm
Extra skater candidates: Andrei Mironov, Duncan Siemens
The Avalanche need to do whatever it takes to re-sign Zadorov. They have very few high end blue line prospects. Of course, this could change if the Avalanche trade Duchene and/or Landeskog. But with their current roster, losing Zadorov would be crippling.
Johnson and Barrie will lead this motley crew. The former is a proven top pairing caliber defenseman. He’s coming off injuries, but Johnson has proven to be a reliable two-way defenseman. Barrie is an excellent offensive defenseman, but his defense isn’t impressive. His issues defensively are obvious because he has to play a ton of minutes in unfavorable situations.
Barbeiro should be on the third pairing, but he’s done enough to at least get a chance on the second pairing. However, even the most optimistic Avalanche fan has to admit he’s likely a lower tier second pairing defenseman at best.
That third pairing is going to be terrible. But the Avalanche have to figure out if Bigras or Lindholm are worth keeping. Andrei Mironov, who recently came to North America from the KHL, is likely going to try to earn a spot in the lineup.
Goaltending
Anytime a team has a subpar offense and defense, there’s one possible factor that could override both – goaltending. The Colorado Avalanche’s goaltending is not example of this. Their likely starter is Semyon Varlamov. Since his Vezina Hart Trophy worthy season in 2013-14, he has steadily declined. Varlamov’s save percentage has dropped from .927 to .921 to .914 to .898.
The scary part? He’s only 28 years old. This kind of decline is normal for a goalie over 30 years old. But for one who’s supposed to be in his best years? That’s a significant red flag. Varlamov still has two years left on his contract with a $5.9 million cap hit. A best case scenario for the Avalanche is he rebuilds his trade value enough to be a trade deadline acquisition with some of his 2018-19 salary retained.
Bernier will serve as his backup. He’s coming off a .915 save percentage in 2016-17. This represents his highest save percentage since the 2013-14 season. Bernier isn’t great, but he’s pretty consistent and reliable. In his last four seasons, his save percentage has topped .910 in all but one of them.
Spencer Martin struggled in a three game sample size last year. He should be the starting goalie for the San Antonio Stampede. If something happens with Varlamov or Bernier, Martin’s likely going to be his replacement. AHL veteran Joe Cannata is an option if a starter isn’t needed.
Outlook
The 2017-18 season for the Colorado Avalanche is an important one. Winning will be an afterthought. In fact, one could argue winning is counterproductive to their rebuild, which will require an infusion of top level players and prospects. The NHL Draft Lottery might not guarantee the worst team the first overall pick, but it does ensure they get a very early draft pick.
As the season progresses, more young players should replace older and departed players. And that’s a good thing. The Avalanche have some intriguing young players. It’s integral they figure out precisely what they have in them. If the Avalanche can find even one or two keepers among them, that would significantly help their rebuild.
Prediction
It’s hard to see the Colorado Avalanche finishing close to a postseason spot. There’s a very good chance they’ll be the worst team in the NHL. Should Duchene and/or Landeskog get traded, those chances get much higher.
However, there are some reasons for Avalanche fans to be excited for the 2017-18 season. If Andrighetto can stick on the first line, they picked up a building piece for virtually nothing. Those are the kind of moves that can help a team go through a quick rebuild.
Jost is an exciting player who will hopefully be given the playing time he needs to develop. Yes, he’ll make mistakes. But Jost will likely be better for being allowed to make them (and learn from them). MacKinnon is one of the most fun players in the NHL to watch. He’s worth the price of admission.