Minnesota Wild: Is Goaltender Devan Dubnyk Overrated?

Devan Dubnyk was a Vezina Trophy candidate last season for the Minnesota Wild but has struggled this season. Is he overrated?

It may not seem like it, but the Minnesota Wild defense has experienced a ton of change over the last year. Marco Scandella was traded to the Buffalo Sabres after being left unprotected in the expansion draft. Since then, the defense has seen a downward trend trying to fill the void. Jared Spurgeon being hurt hasn’t helped matters.

The opinion that Dubnyk might be overrated springs from his inability to recover from a defensive step back in front of him, his playoffs performance, and his performance during the regular season in 2017.

Defensive Step Back

More from Puck Prose

• Detroit Red Wings 2023 Rookie Camp Has Plenty of Ups and Downs
• This Columbus Blue Jackets rookie doesn’t want to be forgotten
• 2 trades the Boston Bruins must make to secure the Stanley Cup
• 3 reasons the Avalanche won’t win the Stanley Cup in 2024
• This is a big year for Alex Turcotte and the Los Angeles Kings

The defense in front of Dubnyk has taken a major step back without Scandella, with an injured Jared Spurgeon, and while using an eclectic mix of bottom-three defensemen. The only constants so far this season have been Matt Dumba, Jonas Brodin, and Ryan Suter. That’s three of the Wild’s top four, but it leaves out Spurgeon, who had a major impact last season.

Spurgeon, while healthy last season, had great possession numbers, with a 51.02 CorsiFor percentage for percentage, and a relative CorsiFor percentage of 2.67. That was while starting a fair share of his shifts in the defensive zone, and while facing major competition. And Spurgeon was holding the puck away from that competition. He had a 50.23 CF% weighted by the quality of competition.

Losing that talent, even for nine games, has left both Dubnyk and backup Alex Stalock without a significant protector. All three of Devan’s shutouts have come with Spurgeon on defense. One of his worst performances (against the Winnipeg Jets) came with Spurgeon gone.

While it is easy to assume that yes, Dubnyk is going to be worst without a top-pairing defenseman, elite goaltenders have to adjust to their defense. Look at Corey Crawford, who’s gone from having one of the best defenses to a lackluster one, but is having his best season. John Gibson has stepped up his game despite all the Ducks injuries.

The same thing can be said for Braden Holtby, who has adjusted as time has gone on to his defense, which turned over two of their top defensemen from last season. Dubnyk lost the same type of defensive defenseman in Marco Scandella but hasn’t adjusted as well.

Defensive Structure

All three shutouts for Dubnyk came with the same six defensemen on the ice. Brodin, Dumba, Gustav Olofsson, Mike Reilly, Spurgeon, and Suter. Any change from that and Dubnyk does much more poorly. In his four worst performances this season, one of those six were missing, with Reilly out half and Olofsson out the other half, with Spurgeon missing one.

While that’s partly on the coaching staff not noticing, especially in the eight minutes Olofsson played in those games, it’s also on Dubnyk not being able to adjust. That’s been a recurring theme this year for the Minnesota Wild. It’s why they’re currently stuck outside of a playoff spot.

That ability to adjust is something that’s been holding Dubnyk back, and not just this season.

Playoffs

More from Minnesota Wild

• Minnesota Wild: Goalie Controversy With Gustavsson and Fleury?
• The winners and losers from day one of the 2023 NHL Draft
• 2023 NHL Draft Live Updates: News, Draft Selections, Trades and More
• 2023 NHL Draft: Complete First Round Draft Order
• The previous winners of the NHL Draft Lottery from the past 20 years

Dubnyk had a much better 2017 playoffs with a .925 save percentage and 1.86 goals against average, but the St. Louis Blues still beat the Wild in five games. Yes, Dubnyk had almost no goal support from his offense, but Dubnyk’s best playoff performance was still close to league average, according to Hockey Reference’s Goals Against percentage.

Dubnyk was bad in the other two postseasons the Minnesota Wild have played with him in net. In the 2015 playoffs, Dubnyk had a .908 SV%, and 2.53 GAA over 10 starts. That was opposed to a .936 SV% and 1.78 GAA in the regular season. Goaltenders are supposed to get better in the playoffs, something Dubnyk has only done once, in the recent losing effort.

Yes, elite goaltenders like Sergei Bobrovsky have struggled in the playoffs, even in Vezina winning seasons. For Dubnyk to be the top-five goaltender he’s been purported to be, he has to do better in the playoffs.

I don’t think that Dubnyk is the type of goaltender who can lift the team on his back for an extended playoff run. The type of player that Carey Price, Henrik Lundqvist, Jonathan Quick, and Crawford have been at times. Which might be another marker that Dubnyk isn’t as good as reported.

Related Story: 3 Bold Predictions For The Wild

2017

Dubnyk has had a rough year, outside of the playoffs. In 2017, Dubnyk has had a save percentage in the .800s 24 times out of 59 games. That includes 11 times in 23 starts to begin the 2017-18 campaign. Dubnyk is lucky to have gotten the goal support he didn’t get in last season’s playoffs. The offense has helped the Wild find ways to eke out at least a point in four of those games.

The relatively new goaltender stat of the “really bad start” comes into play here. That’s a game where the starting goaltender has a save percentage below .850 and the coach should consider pulling him.

That happened three times so far this season for Dubnyk. In the second half of last season, Dubnyk did it four times. That’s seven times over the past year, including two save percentages in the .700’s, well below a professional level.

This isn’t to say Dubnyk is a bad goaltender – he’s still in the top half of the league. But he’s nowhere near the top five, and if he cracks the top 10, it’s just barely. The best way for him to gain traction is for him to get more consistent. Even if he barely hits .900 (which he did four times at the end of last season) that’s still a relatively good start.

Next: Every NHL Team's Mount Rushmore

There are ways that Dubnyk can become the goaltender that people think (incorrectly) he is now. That focus on consistency is just the first step.